UFC

UFC 231 | Holloway vs Ortega  DraftKings Breakdown  

UFC 231 | Holloway vs Ortega DraftKings Breakdown  

Saturday, December 6th 6:00 pm EST

We have a big UFC PPV this weekend so the prize pools on DraftKings will be larger. Your game selection is important as most of the GPPs have filled the last few months so there will be no overlay. I think a lot of these fights go to decision. I also think both title fights are stackable in cash games.

Be sure to screenshot any high scoring lineups and tag us on Twitter!!! I want to follow all our subs so please let us know when you sign up via DM or tweet at us.

The Main Event: Max Holloway $8.3K vs Brian Ortega $7.9K

This fight is currently a pick-em and I don’t get it. Max Holloway is a much better striker with volume. Brian Ortega is great on the ground, but I don’t know how he gets the fight to the ground. I am interested to see Holloway at the official weigh-ins and the ceremonial weigh-ins. Holloway cuts a lot of weight and has had health concerns over the last year. If everything checks out by Friday night, I am going heavy on Max Holloway and will bet on him also. This fight can be stacked in cash and the double stack with Jedrzejczyk/Shevchenko is also in play for cash games. Ortega is a GPP play for the submission upside but I will be much heavier on Holloway.

Update: Both guys made weight. The guy we were worried about was Max Holloway. He made weight and we are ready to roll with Max. I really like Max everywhere at this point. Tyler and I made the case for Holloway on the podcast also.

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UFC Fight Night 142| JDS vs Tai Tuivasa DraftKings Breakdown

UFC Fight Night 142| JDS vs Tai Tuivasa DraftKings Breakdown

This is a unique week in which we have two UFC cards on back-to-back nights. In the past, this has happened twice a year, once in July for International Fight Week and once in Nov/Dec. The reason for the back to back events in the TUF finale is a full fight card on Friday night and a bigger card is usually scheduled for the next night on Saturday. This breakdown is going to be a little shorter, as Tyler and I are working overtime trying to get all the tape study done for both cards. I will have an article our for the TUF 28 Finale once the DK prices drop and weigh-ins are done also.

For a more extensive breakdown of each fight on this card, please listen to the podcast.

Be sure to screenshot any high scoring lineups and tag us on Twitter!!!

The Main Event: Tai Tuivasa $7.9K vs Junior dos Santos $8.3K

Tuivasa is at home and I’m not sure why dos Santos would take this fight. There are plenty of cards in Brazil and dos Santos can get a home fight at any time. I have this fight as a pick em. Both guys have clear paths to victory and come with some concerns. Tuivasa finished the two weakest fighters he’s faced but was not able to finish Arlovski and that worries me. Junior dos Santos is a seasoned veteran of the sport and can use the same game plan that won him a decision win versus Blagoy Ivanov and box him up for five rounds. This fight is stackable in cash and both guys are playable in GPPs. I haven’t decided if I’m going to stack in cash yet.

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Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale | DraftKings Breakdown Friday, November 30th

Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale | DraftKings Breakdown Friday, November 30th

This was a very rough week with two UFC cards and lots of tape to watch. This article has my plays but it will be short. There is no podcast for The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale. We have a podcast and articles for UFC Fight Night 142 up already.

Be sure to screenshot any high scoring lineups and tag us on Twitter!!! I want to follow all our subs so please let us know when you sign up via DM or tweet at us.

The Main Event: Kamaru Usman $9K vs Rafael dos Anjos $7.2K

I am all in on the cash stack this week, this fight is most likely going five rounds so I’ll take five rounds of strikes, takedowns, and passes. I also do favor Usman to win this fight via decision. We have seen Covington versus RDA and this fight should be a carbon copy. Usman needs this fight to get his title shot. He’ll do what he does best and get it to the mat and use his strength advantage.

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Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale

Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale

The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale

For this fight week, I am doing things a little different than the normal article since there is a fight night on Friday and another on Saturday. Steve and I focused our attention of the podcast all on Saturday’s fight card, so in this article, I will be giving a brief breakdown of each fight on the Friday night card and giving my advice for how to attack each fight from a DraftKings perspective.

This card, in particular, is one that I do not think will have many stoppages, so it is going to be very important to nail down some key value plays and not to pay up for fighters that won’t get those stoppages or at least a route to scoring a good amount.

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Kamaru Usman

As long as Usman doesn’t try to test himself on the feet with Dos Anjos this should be a pretty straightforward fight. Usman will look to dominate in the clinch and use his far superior wrestling game to bring this fight to his world and grind out a decision. In a five-round fight with Usman having such an aggressive wrestling game, he has a nice upside. I am going to have a lot of exposure to Usman and he will likely be my most owned fighter on the slate. He will also likely be the most owned fighter in GPP and cash games across the board.

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UFC Fight Night Beijing | Top Play, Value Play and Premium Bets

UFC Fight Night Beijing | Top Play, Value Play and Premium Bets

For this UFC card, I highlighted the ‘Top Play’ to begin building your lineups around and a key value play that will free up a little bit of cash. There is a lot of unknown and little-known fighters that Steve and I discussed at length on our podcast, so please do yourself a favor and check out our podcast as well as Steve’s article. We will also be in the Discord chat throughout the weekend, so feel free to run some ideas by us.

Steve and I broke down each fight in great detail on the podcast Wednesday night and gave some insight on what to look for in our articles going forward. Steve and I seemed to be on the same page on a majority of these fights on Saturday morning so it would be beneficial to hear our breakdowns prior to constructing your lineups before the early morning fight card.

If you have any questions or ideas that you would like to see on the podcast or in the article contact me on twitter: @tyslice23.

TOP PLAY
SONG YADONG ($9100)

Coming into this fight as one of the top prospects in the Asian market, the UFC offered up a meatball for Yadong to get a relatively easy win against on Saturday morning. Yadong is currently 2-0 in the UFC with both wins coming by way of stoppage, both scoring over 100 points on DraftKings. I see no reason that anything would change given the fact that Yadong is taking a pretty significant step down in competition by fighting Morales. Morales, who is taking this fight on short notice, comes into this fight fresh off a win to a 3-4 fighter in Belabor but prior to that he lost on the Dana White Contender’s series by submission in a fight that he was -320 to win. I personally feel that Yadong is the better fighter standing and on the mat but he has a relatively easy path to victory taking this fight to the ground and submitting Morales.

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UFC Fight Night 141 | Blaydes vs Ngannou 2 DraftKings Breakdown

UFC Fight Night 141 | Blaydes vs Ngannou 2 DraftKings Breakdown

All our UFC content this week is free and so is the NFL and NBA content so take advantage of the giving by The Quant Edge during Thanksgiving Week. If you want our UFC content in the future please sign up with code Brews or code UFC. The UFC content consists of The Quant Edge MMA Podcast featuring @tyslice23 and @shppirate12. You are reading my article, which is written for each card by @shppirate12. @tyslice23 writes a UFC article each week giving his top play on each card and his top underdog play for each card. You can get some savings on any subscription with these codes, Brews or UFC.

We had a tricky card to navigate last week and this card is even trickier. The top of the card has two heavyweight fights favored to finish so they are obvious GPP fights. I am not a huge fan of the top four fighters on this card at these prices because I don’t see many finishes there. Three of the top four highest priced fighters are women not favored to finish their fights.

The Main Event: Curtis Blaydes $8.7K vs Francis Ngannou $7.5K

This is a rematch, and I expect it to end with Curtis Blaydes as the winner. Ngannou won the 1st fight via a 2nd round doctor stoppage, as Blaydes’ eye was closed shut. Ngannou is coming off back to back loses and is a GPP play for his punching power. This time around I expect Blaydes to rely heavily on his wrestling and put Ngannou on his back as soon as possible, then work his ground and pound. Blaydes has very good elbows from top control and is very good at earning DK points by advancing his position in addition to the takedowns I expect. Blaydes previous UFC wins have scored very well on Draftkings and if this goes five rounds, we can see a score in the 120s or 130s if he dominates with top control. I highly recommend him in GPPs of all types and would be comfortable with him in cash.

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UFC Fight Night Buenos Aires | Top Play, Value Play and Premium Bets

UFC Fight Night Buenos Aires | Top Play, Value Play and Premium Bets

For this UFC card, I highlighted the ‘Top Play’ to begin building your lineups around and a key value play that will free up a little bit of cash. There seems to be a lot of value that I like on this card so please do yourself a favor and check out our podcast as well as Steve’s article. We will also be in the Discord chat throughout the weekend, so feel free to run some ideas by us.

Steve and I broke down each fight in great detail on the podcast Wednesday night and gave some insight on what to look for in our articles going forward. Steve and I were not on the same page on a few of these fights on Saturday night so it would be beneficial to hear our breakdowns prior to constructing your lineups for Saturday night.

If you have any questions or ideas that you would like to see on the podcast or in the article contact me on twitter: @tyslice23.

TOP PLAY:

POLIANA BOTELHO ($8300)

I am sure that my co-host will love the fact that I am making Botelho my top play, but this fight highlights one of the main reasons I typically wait until after watching the weigh-ins to make my final lineups and bets. This morning at the weigh-ins Botelho’s opponent, Cynthia Calvillo, missed weight by three pounds but the more telling story is that she physically looked terrible while stepping on the scale. I was leaning towards Botelho prior to watching the weigh-ins, but I made her my top play because for a price tag slightly above the midline you can lock in a fighter that not only has the skill set advantage but is fighting an opponent that is going to be significantly drained. Calvillo’s only real path to victory is to take Botelho to the ground and try to grind her out of lock in a submission, however, Botelho has never been taken down in her UFC career. Botelho is very aggressive on the feet, landing 4.89 strikes per minute at a 64 percent accuracy and gets hit by less than two strikes per minute. I look for Botelho to fend off any takedown attempts that Calvillo poses against her and use her technical Muay Thai to dominate Calvillo on the feet. I was not going to initially make this my top play on the card because I did not think there was much in terms of stoppage upside but after seeing how bad Calvillo looked at the weigh ins it would not surprise me in the slightest to see Botelho finish this fight at some point at a decent value.

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UFC Fight Night 140 | Magny vs Ponzinibbio DraftKings Breakdown

UFC Fight Night 140 | Magny vs Ponzinibbio DraftKings Breakdown

UFC Fight Night 140: Magny vs Ponzinibbio

Draftkings Breakdown

This card is extremely tricky. We have a handful of fighters who do not have much high-level experience in the UFC. I expect to see a few fights not go as expected. With that said, you can stack the main event in cash games.

I have gone back and forth with highlighting GPP fights in my article. If a fight is a GPP fight but is one-sided, I will just include that fighter in my list of tiers. This card has three fights that I think are GPP fights and you need to play a fighter in each of these fights if you are playing one lineup. We will cover it all below. Make sure you listen to the podcast also, Tyler and I are in agreement on most fights this week.

The Main Event: Neil Magny $7.2K vs Santiago Ponzinibbio $9K

On the podcast, Tyler told me Magny opened as a -210 favorite and I was shocked. Both of these guys have plenty of fights vs top notch UFC talent so this opening line was ridiculous. With that said, I also think Ponzinibbio at -300 odds is too wide a line. This is a stackable main event in cash. Magny will be very popular in cash games so if you don’t play him there, make sure you have a very good reason because that can come back to bite you very easily. Ponzinibbio is a mid-level GPP play for his knockout upside.

Magny has a clear path to victory if he can work a grappling/takedown-heavy attack, especially early in the fight. Magny will have a seven-inch reach advantage and a three-inch height advantage. He needs to keep that jab in Ponzinibbio’s face. If Magny can secure a takedown early in the fight he can zap Ponzinibbio of his energy and start to empty that gas tank. Magny has the better gas tank and this fight gets real interesting once it hits Round 3 if Magny has limited the damage. I like Magny in cash, I like the cash stack and Magny is playable in GPPS. This line is off in my opinion so the odds make Magny a nice play.

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UFC Fight Night 139 Korean Zombie vs Rodriguez | Top Play, Value Play and Premium Bets

UFC Fight Night 139 Korean Zombie vs Rodriguez | Top Play, Value Play and Premium Bets

UFC Fight Night 139 Korean Zombie vs Rodriguez

TOP PLAY, VALUE PLAY AND PREMIUM BETS

For this UFC card, I highlighted the ‘Top Play’ to begin building your lineups around and a key value play that will free up a little bit of cash. There seems to be a lot of value that I like on this UFC card so please do yourself a favor and check out our podcast as well as Steve’s article. We will also be in the Discord chat throughout the weekend, so feel free to run some ideas by us.

Steve and I broke down each fight in great detail on the podcast Wednesday night and gave some insight on what to look for in our articles going forward. Steve and I were not on the same page on a few of these fights on Saturday night so it would be beneficial to hear our breakdowns prior to constructing your lineups for Saturday night.

If you have any questions or ideas that you would like to see on the podcast or in the article contact me on twitter: @tyslice23.

TOP PLAY:

DAVI RAMOS ($9,500)

First off let me preface this pick by defending the fact that he is the highest price fighter on this UFC slate. I am primarily a GPP player so when I make my Top Play lock of the card, I typically focus on one or two fighters that have a path to score extremely well and build my lineup around them. For this particular UFC fight card, I have a lot of underdog plays that I feel have the chance to not only win their respective fights but do so via stoppage. So, I feel that Ramos is a slam dunk play for 100 points, and there is enough value on this particular slate that you don’t have to punt a position in order to fit him in.

Getting into the fight, there really isn’t too much to say other than Ramos is a really good fighter in every aspect of martial arts and Gunther is pretty terrible. Gunther is a low volume striker who is extremely bad on the feet, and his only real path to winning fights is by getting takedowns and working his grappling. In this fight, that is a huge problem because Ramos is the ADCC 2015 submission grappling champion and the Grappler’s Quest 2011 lightweight and absolute champion. What that all means is that Ramos is a really talented fighter on the ground and will have a huge edge. I look for Ramos to hold the edge on the feet before this fight eventually hits the mat and Ramos locking in a first-round submission and earning us over 100 points.

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