UFC

UFC on ESPN 1 | N’Gannou vs Velasquez DraftKings Breakdown  

UFC on ESPN 1 | N’Gannou vs Velasquez DraftKings Breakdown  

I am finding this UFC card extremely difficult. There is already lots of line value so keep an eye out for how close some of these lines get. Early line value exposes the chalk plays of the card. Chalk plays will be highly owned in both tournaments and cash games.

The Main Event: Cain Velasquez $9K vs Francis N’Gannou $7.2K

I have been back and forth on this fight all week. I suggest playing both guys in GPPs and the cash stack is safe if you choose to play it. On the TQE MMA Podcast, Tyler said he would be speaking to a friend of his who has first-hand knowledge of Cain’s camp. The simple message is that Cain has been training very well and the video people have been passing around saying Cain looks slow was taped over a year ago.

My view on this fight is that Cain is going to pressure forward and initiate the exchanges, which is what Francis N’Gannou needs. I would like to see Francis take a page out of James Vick’s book and stay on the outside and counterstrike when Cain closes the distance. Cain’s pace is going to get the best of N’Gannou as the fight moves along. Cain is now 36 years old and hasn’t fought in 30 months so that pace may have an effect on him also.

I decided to get off the fence and take a stand, I am picking Francis N’Gannou by first-round KO/TKO. Francis will be in 16 of my 20 GPP lineups.

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UFC 234 | Whittaker vs Gastelum DraftKings Breakdown  

UFC 234 | Whittaker vs Gastelum DraftKings Breakdown  

The midrange this week is tricky. We have a lot of heavy favorites this week and some of the DK prices are suppressed as a result. I only see four UFC fights in which the underdog has a clear path to victory. But again, this is MMA so anything can happen!

The Main Event: Robert Whittaker $8.9K vs Kelvin Gastelum $7.3K

I expect this fight to be a technical chess match on the feet. In cash games, I really like this stack but wouldn’t be surprised if it scores on the lower side. I still think it’s worth playing to be safe and I’m not a huge fan of other low-priced fighters. If this fight goes the distance, I see Whittaker winning enough rounds to retain his title. Gastelum is a patient counter striker waiting with that big left hand ready to wobble his opponent. Whittaker doesn’t strike with the highest volume so those opportunities will be few and far between. Both guys are GPP viable as they have knockout ability. I expect Whittaker to use his kicking game from distance early and attack the lead right foot of Kelvin Gastelum.

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UFC on ESPN+ 2 | Assuncao vs Moraes 2 DraftKings Breakdown  

UFC on ESPN+ 2 | Assuncao vs Moraes 2 DraftKings Breakdown  

Breaking down this UFC card wasn’t very difficult but some pricing issues have presented themselves. The pricing structure in relation to DraftKings scoring and the odds value have made this card tricky. Consider this:

The four highest priced fighters are in fights that may not finish: Bibulatov $9.4K, Walker $9.2K, Souza $9.1K, and Griffin $9K.
Significant odds value has already presented itself: Ramos, Teymur, Colares
More odds value is forming: Albini, Borella
Neither the main event nor the co-main event is favored to finish.
This presents some very unique situations in both cash and GPPs. I have played dozens of cards over the years and I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a card similar to this collection of 13 fights. I expect the midrange to be very popular this week and the guys with odds value will also be popular as always.

The Main Event: Raphael Assuncao $7.4K vs Marlon Moraes $8.8K

This is a rematch and Assuncao took the first fight via decision. It was a three-round fight and for DraftKings purposes, it was a very low scoring decision. This was Moraes’ first UFC fight when he took on Assuncao the first time and it was a low volume striking match. If this fight plays out to a similar pace over five rounds, it still may not be worth stacking in cash. I am more comfortable with Assuncao in cash at his price. Assuncao is playable in all GPP formats strictly because of his price. Moraes is a very tough play if the pace remains the same as the first fight. He is more likely to get the finish if that happens, but this fight is favored to go to a decision, so it is not the likely outcome. I advise only playing Moraes in multi-entry GPPs.

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Tyler Beard’s UFC Projectons

Tyler Beard’s UFC Projectons

  Name My Projection Salary Avg PPG Odds Odds to Finish Cash GPP Fade Magomed Bibulatov 87.50135 9400 47.5 -450 214 x x Johnny Walker 75.9594 9200 105 -210 140 x x Livinha Souza 73.66435 9100 106 -225 155 x x Max Griffin 74.3259 9000 52.7 -210 230 x x Anthony Hernandez 72.3741 8900 0 […]

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UFC on ESPN+ 1 | Cejudo vs. Dillashaw DraftKings Breakdown

UFC on ESPN+ 1 | Cejudo vs. Dillashaw DraftKings Breakdown

Saturday, January 19th, 2019 6:00 pm EST

The first UFC card on ESPN is here and I will be in the press room on Saturday night covering the event for MMA India. I think the midrange will play a big role in determining who wins the GPPs this week. Selecting the winning fighter is these midrange fights is not going to be easy at all. Please listen to The Quant Edge MMA Podcast for more detailed analysis.

Be sure to screenshot any high scoring lineups and tag us on Twitter!!! I want to follow all our subs and supporters. Good luck!!!

The Main Event: TJ Dillashaw $8.9K vs Henry Cejudo $7.3K

There are two narratives surrounding this fight, will these guys make the 125-pound weight limit for a championship fight and will this be the end of the UFC Flyweight division. The fight analysis for me is very easy, TJ’s striking is just too much for Cejudo. The combination of speed, movement, cutting angles to strike, and power leads me to believe TJ will hurt Cejudo and stop him. I expect TJ to finish this fight. The odds are in favor of it reaching the scorecards, which is also fine from a DraftKings standpoint since these guys can score points for five rounds, but I think TJ finishes Cejudo. The cash game stack is playable in this spot. I like TJ Dillashaw in all formats. Cejudo is a GPP play in multi-entry GPPs but I am staying away from using much of him.

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UFC 232 | Jones vs Gustafsson 2 DraftKings Breakdown  

UFC 232 | Jones vs Gustafsson 2 DraftKings Breakdown  

UFC 232: Jones vs Gustafsson 2

Draftkings Breakdown

Saturday, December 29th 6:15 pm EST

This is our last UFC card of 2018, and it comes with controversy. I love this card and can’t wait to watch these fights. Please watch the podcast, as Tyler and I disagreed on a few fights. Our takeaway from this card is not many of these fights are favored to finish so we can be looking at a night of decisions. Only time will tell if that assessment is accurate.

Be sure to screenshot any high scoring lineups and tag us on Twitter!!! I want to follow all our subs so please let us know when you sign up via DM or tweet at us.

The Main Event: Jon Jones $9.1K vs Alexander Gustafsson $7.1K

My pick here is Jon Bones Jones. His paths to victory include a KO/TKO or via decision. He is considered by many as the best MMA fighter of all time and I think we are going to see a very motivated and focused Jon Jones. I also think we see a very inspired Alexander Gustafsson but his skills and athleticism aren’t on par with Jon Jones. I recommend Jones in all formats. I would play Gustafsson in multi-entry and smaller GPPs. This is a stackable fight and if it goes to a decision, we can see Gus score close to 60 points in a decision loss.

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UFC 232 | Jones vs Gustafsson Top Play, Value Play and Premium Bets

UFC 232 | Jones vs Gustafsson Top Play, Value Play and Premium Bets

For this UFC card, I highlighted the ‘Top Play’ to begin building your lineups around and a key value play that will free up a little bit of cash. Steve and I discussed this card at length on our podcast and went above and beyond in our breakdowns. We planned on trying to keep the podcast relatively short but we ended up going longer than ever. Also provided some insight and an insider information type knowledge that you won’t get anywhere else regarding the main event, so please do yourself a favor and check out our podcast as well as Steve’s article. We will also be in the Discord chat throughout the weekend, so feel free to run some ideas by us.

Steve and I broke down each fight in great detail on the podcast Thursday night and gave some insight on how to attack this card from a Draftkings perspective. Steve and I seemed to be on the same page on a few of these fights and had vastly different opinions on the others on Saturday, including a few that he thought would get a stoppage bonus so it would be beneficial to hear our breakdowns prior to constructing your lineups before the early morning fight card.

If you have any questions or ideas that you would like to see on the podcast or in the article contact me on Twitter: @tyslice23.

TOP PLAY
Jon Jones ($9,100)

Plan and simple, I think Jon Jones is a far better fighter than the first time these 2 men met in the octagon and I think Gustafsson plateaued a few years ago. Jones has only scored under 87.5 fantasy points one time in his lengthy career, and that instance was when he was disqualified versus Matt Hamill when in reality it should have been a 130-point performance because Hamill was saved by the ref ruling illegal strikes when it could have easily been ruled a TKO stoppage. I went into detail about Jon Jones’ thoughts on their first match and an inside glimpse into his mindset from a one-on-one conversation that I had with him a few years ago on the podcast, so please go check it out. I think Jones is the better fighter everywhere and should have no problem justifying his $9,100 price tag.

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UFC on FOX 31 | Lee vs. Iaquinta 2 Top Play, Value Play and Premium Bets

UFC on FOX 31 | Lee vs. Iaquinta 2 Top Play, Value Play and Premium Bets

For this card I highlighted the ‘Top Play’ to begin building your lineups around and a key value play that will free up a little bit of cash. Steve and I discussed this UFC card at length on our podcast and had a fair amount of fights that we disagreed on, so please do yourself a favor and check out our podcast as well as Steve’s article. We will also be in the Discord chat throughout the weekend, so feel free to run some ideas by us.

Steve and I broke down each fight in great detail on the podcast Wednesday night and gave some insight on how to attack this card from a Draftkings perspective. Steve and I seemed to be on the same page on a few of these fights and had varying opinions on the others on Saturday, so it would be beneficial to hear our breakdowns prior to constructing your lineups before the early morning fight card.

If you have any questions or ideas that you would like to see on the podcast or in the article contact me on Twitter: @tyslice23.

TOP PLAY
Juan Adams ($9,500)

Juan Adams is the type of play that you can lock in at the highest salary on the slate, and he will likely be somewhat under-owned based off the fact that he is seemingly unproven at this point and is facing a gritty opponent that can cause most people problems in the octagon. That being said, you might want to target Kevin Lee as a cash game top play, but Adams in your GPPs.

Adams comes into this fight with a 4-0 professional record with all four wins coming by TKO in the first round, and he also has a 4-0 amateur record with all four wins also being by TKO. Adams walks around at a weight of 310 pounds prior to cutting to make the 265-pound limit and will hold a huge size and power advantage in the cage. Adams has a collegiate wrestling background and has pretty good movement and hand speed for such a big guy. His opponent, De La Rocha, is a very hittable opponent who should be tailor-made for Adams’ style, getting hit with over five strikes per minute. It would not surprise me if Adams hurts De La Rocha on the feet before getting it to the ground and getting a ground and pound victory early in the first round.

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