NBA

NBA Morning Thoughts 02.13.19

NBA Morning Thoughts 02.13.19

The big Wednesday slate right before All-Star Weekend is always one of the trickier of the year. The majority of NBA players and teams are tuned out as their week-long break is right on the horizon. Keep an eye out for late scratches and deeper rotations. With that, here are my top targets for tonight’s NBA DFS slate…

PGs
Steph Curry (FD $9100, DK $9200) vs POR

With DeMarcus Cousins resting tonight, it is time to UNLEASH Steph Curry at his down price. Curry has taken the biggest hit since Cousins returned. With Cousins OFF the floor, Curry sees a massive .38 FD and .42 DK fantasy point per minute increase with a 10.96% usage bump. Curry is too cheap with Boogie out and on a large slate I’m praying his ownership stays down. He’s perhaps my favorite target on the slate.

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The Verdict: Top GPP Plays, 2.12.19

The Verdict: Top GPP Plays, 2.12.19

Welcome, to the Judge’s Verdict. We have an excellent 5 game slate tonight, so let’s try to take advantage of it. The All-Star break is looming, so we only have three days of basketball this week before a week off.

Here are some of my top tournament plays for tonight’s slate.

Note: The numbers in parenthesis refer to the salaries of that particular player. The first number is the FanDuel (“FD”) salary, while the second number is the DraftKings (“DK”) salary.

Ricky Rubio (6.3, 5.8)

Rubio thought he was getting traded for Conley, as that deal was allegedly 99.9% done before it fell through. So, that must have impacted his game before the deadline. Now, that he knows he’s staying with the Jazz for the rest of the season, I expect him to settle in and put up some big games. Tonight, he gets a glorious pace up matchup vs. the Warriors (228 over/under). He’s a tad underpriced on both sites, and he’s quietly shooting 55% and averaging 15 points, 6 assists, and 1.5 steals over his last two games. I think that’s his absolute floor tonight, and we are probably going to get him at 10% ownership across the industry. I expect the Warriors to focus their defense on Mitchell and allow Rubio to dance and take all the shots he wants.

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NBA Cash Breakdown 2/12

NBA Cash Breakdown 2/12

Five games on tonight’s NBA slate and I actually like the slate. ATL/LAL obviously sticks out like a sore thumb, but I also like the NO/ORL and PHI/BOS games. There isn’t a ton to pay up for, so we should be able to make some really nice lineups tonight. Let’s get into it!

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DraftKings Tiers Talk 02.12.19

DraftKings Tiers Talk 02.12.19

Welcome to Tiers Talk where I breakdown the DraftKings Tiers main slate. Let’s get started…

Tier 1
Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, LeBron James

Tier 1 starts us off with a headache as we have to deal with the Anthony Davis fiasco and LeBron James in an ELITE matchup vs Atlanta. If there is no New Orleans drama going on, Davis is the clear Tier 1 choice; it’s not a debate. The drama opens the door for LeBron. It was encouraging to see Davis play 33 minutes last game, it wasn’t encouraging to see him take eight shots. He did, however, have 50+ fantasy points with ONLY eight shot attempts! We know the upside is there as long as he shoots the damn ball. LeBron is the safe cash game option, as it’s tough to get over his beautiful Atlanta matchup, but AD is quite the intriguing GPP option who I don’t even mind taking a risk on in cash games.

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NBA Morning Thoughts 02.12.19

NBA Morning Thoughts 02.12.19

We have a fairly interesting five-game NBA DFS slate, let’s get right to it…

Los Angeles Lakers @ Atlanta Hawks (o/u 236, LAL -5.5)
Los Angeles is 13th in defensive rating, 4th in pace.

Atlanta is 28th in defensive rating, 1st in pace.

The Lakers head into Atlanta with that glorious Hawks matchup we look to attack on any slate it’s featured. The Hawks are first in pace, 28th in defensive rating, 30th in turnover percentage, 19th in true shooting percentage, and 21st in rebounding rate. They can’t defend, rebound, shoot, take care of the ball, and play the most possessions per game in the NBA. That my friends equals DFS gold.

Leading off with LeBron James. As much as it pains me to say it, the fact is he’s overpriced. The key question is does the Hawks matchup make up for his price. I think the strong argument can be made that it does. I’m unconcerned about a potential blowout here, as the Hawks are at home and quite frankly the Lakers aren’t playing their greatest basketball at the moment. Teams typically lean on stars on the road and the Hawks pace should keep LeBron engaged throughout, he’s an elite target.

Kyle Kuzma remains way too cheap on both sites priced at $6700 on FD and $6000 on DK. Kuzma is coming off of back to back 35+ point games and looks to be fully healthy. This is an elite matchup where he’s priced down after producing well in back to back games. He’s an elite middle-priced PF.

He struggled with his shot in his debut, but Reggie Bullock played 30 minutes and I love to target value wings versus the Hawks. The Hawks poor defense and propensity for turnovers should lead to +steals opportunities and open 3PT looks. With Josh Hart sidelined, I expect the minutes to remain — Bullock is one of my favorite values on the slate.

The sites have yet to out-price JaVale McGee, as he is $6100 on FD and $4900 on DK. If McGee is getting 24-29 minutes he’s a bargain as he’s a 1.26 FD per minute producer and a 1.17 DK per minute producer. Elite matchup and good price, I have no issues riding the McGee death train tonight.

I’m off on Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram. Sure the matchup is great but Rondo is just too expensive if he’s going to come off the bench. Ingram is priced fine I just don’t see the ceiling for him when LeBron and Rondo are both playing.

This is also a DFS friendly game environment for the Hawks, who get a Lakers team who will look to match their extreme pace. The Lakers are a good defensive team but the overall pace of this game outweighs their defense. In case you missed it, Jeremy Lin was waived yesterday by the Hawks. The risk with targeting Hawks players is their deep rotation as coach Lloyd Pierce refuses to let his guys consistently play 30+ minutes a game.

With no Jeremy Lin I’m assuming Trae Young will see a slight minutes bump and for that reason, I like Trae in this spot. A lot of people will want Hawks players in their lines to counter the amount of Lakers they’re targeting and while I don’t think it’s necessary, Young is far and away my favorite Hawk to target.

He’s impossible to trust but the matchup is ideal for John Collins, who is a GPP and a very risky one at that as he’s failed to come close to 5x his value eight of his last nine games. This game environment is the only reason I’d consider Collins here.

It wouldn’t shock me to see DeAndre Bembry and Kent Bazemore pick up a few added minutes with Lin gone. Both are capable ball-handlers and we’ve seen Atlanta use Baze as a backup PG at times. Both are GPP darts, but this is the right sort of game environment for both.

Lastly, the ultimate GPP dart tonight is Alex Len, who saw a slight minutes bump last game versus Orlando and while projecting his minutes is a task, no human is qualified for it wouldn’t shock me to see Len in the 22-minute range here. Len can also exceed his value in 15-19 minutes because of the pace of this game.

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The Verdict | Top NBA GPP Plays, 2.11.19

The Verdict | Top NBA GPP Plays, 2.11.19

Welcome, to the Judge’s Verdict. We have an excellent nine-game NBA slate tonight, so let’s try to take advantage of it. The All-Star break is looming, so we only have four days of basketball this week before a week off.

Here are some of my top tournament plays for tonight’s slate.

Note: The numbers in parenthesis refer to the salaries of that particular player. The first number is the FanDuel (“FD”) salary, while the second number is the DraftKings (“DK”) salary.

Colin Sexton (5.4, 4.9)

The Sexton we have seen since the trade deadline is a different and more aggressive player. He’s averaging 19 shots per game in his last three games and 23 actual points. His price rose only a few hundred dollars, and his projected ownership on DK is criminally low. He gets a dream matchup versus the Knicks and DSJ – one of the worst defenders since he came in to the league. Everyone wants exposure to DSJ tonight (me included to a certain extent), however, I am not going to overlook his counterpart in this game, Sexton, who is much cheaper and could match DSJ’s output.

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NBA Cash Breakdown 2/11

NBA Cash Breakdown 2/11

Nine games on tonight’s slate and we have six players over 10K on DK. I am really not sure we have the quality value to be playing those guys. Westbrook is going to his 10th straight-triple double and seems like a great cash option I am just not sure how we fit him in there. Let’s just get right to it. 

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DraftKings Tiers Talk 02.11.19

DraftKings Tiers Talk 02.11.19

Welcome to the first addition of Tiers Talk where I will breakdown DraftKings Tiers main slate.

Tier 1
James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Tier 1 is always the “stud” tier and tonight it’s pretty straightforward. While I understand he’s always capable of 60+ upside I think it’s safe to eliminate Giannis from consideration as I don’t think he hits his ceiling vs the lowly Bulls. That leaves us with Harden vs Westbrook. Even with Harden’s lackluster performance his previous two games Harden is the TiersGAWD. Harden has CP3 to worry about, Westbrook has Paul George; any time Harden is in tiers I’m looking to target him especially during this historic run. Harden is the guy I want in tier 1.

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NBA | Staying Ahead of the Curve, 2/11

NBA | Staying Ahead of the Curve, 2/11

Each Monday, I will be taking a look at upcoming injury/suspension impacts, teams/situations to attack, and NBA players who I believe will either be under-owned or underpriced. On bigger slates, it’s easy to get lost in the vast number of options, sudden injury news, etc.

Having an idea ahead of time of whose price you should be immediately aware of can help you sort through the chaos. More importantly, anticipating which NBA players are in a position to take a step forward ensures you will get a player that doesn’t just outperform his salary but does so at suppressed ownership.

From this point forward, all stats will be filtered to include the previous 10 games (~three weeks) only, in order to catch trends that haven’t had enough time to drastically change season-long numbers.

Without further ado:

Injury/Suspension/Trades Impacts
Caris LeVert
LeVert played 15 minutes in his return, a total that should climb slowly over the next few weeks. More noteworthy was his 33% usage rate in the game, suggesting Napier and Russell will have a hard time living up to their elevated prices.

Otto Porter | Bobby Portis & Jabari Parker
Otto Porter makes the Bulls a better defensive team, but he also bumps the stocks of Dunn, Lavine, and especially Markkanen. He spaces the floor, yet is a low usage shooter. Hence, the bumps for Lavine and Dunn. Markkanen gets the added benefit of Porter’s versatility, as Markkanen gets to play the five when Porter shifts to the four. The result has been 18 and 11 rebounds for Lauri in Porter’s two games as a Bull.

Shockingly, Portis and Parker aren’t just playing well offensively. Both players are playing with an energy and focus on both ends of the floor that’s earning them big minutes. Parker’s minutes seem safer since Portis has played mostly center for Washington (and they don’t want to vanish Thomas Bryant), but both are massively intriguing due to their upside when given minutes.

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