NBA

NBA | Saturday 12.22.18

NBA | Saturday 12.22.18

We have a fairly pleasant six-game NBA DFS Saturday slate of games, let’s get right to it…

Phoenix Suns @ Washington Wizards (o/u 227.5, WAS -5)

Phoenix is 26th in defensive rating, 19th in pace.

Washington is 28th in defensive rating, seventh in pace.

A week after these two teams swapped players, they face-off. It’s strange how that always seems to happen. While this game might not be the prettiest to watch, it features a whole lot of DFS appeal as both teams struggle mightily on defense, and the Wizards should be able to dictate the tempo with their high pace.

A big question in this game, does John Wall try? By now, we know the difference between a motivated and unmotivated John Wall. At his price, we very much need a motivated Wall. He has typically only “tried” vs top level teams, the Suns have the potential to bore him. However, if John Wall truly hated Kelly Oubre, that could motivate him.

The Wizards show zero effort on the defensive side of the ball for the majority of the game, couple that with their high pace and Devin Booker is an elite target. Booker has been awesome since returning from injury. His price is up but he’s not quite yet priced out.

For as good of a spot this is, TJ Warren is going to be under-owned. Strangely, Warren continues to fall under the radar. It’s fairly simple, the Wizards don’t play defense and Warren is a strong scorer, he’s a top target.

Both Trevor Ariza and Kelly Oubre have a revenge narrative. Strictly from a production and minutes standpoint, I’d much rather target Ariza. Oubre is interesting in GPPs.

While this is an elite matchup that will feature lots of scoring, strictly because of how strong SG is overall tonight, I’m not interested in Bradley Beal. There is a good chunk of SGs I’d rather target.

Top Targets: John Wall, Devin Booker, TJ Warren, Trevor Ariza

On The Radar: DeAndre Ayton, Bradley Beal, Jamal Crawford, Jeff Green

Fade: Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris, Josh Jackson

Read More
NBA Cash Breakdown 12/21

NBA Cash Breakdown 12/21

We have 10 NBA games tonight and this is a very messy slate. Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Andre Drummond, Mike Conley, Julius Randle, Niko Mirotic, Serge Ibaka, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kyle Anderson all have the Q tag and some are closer to probably but still. A good handful of these guys have an illness so you really never know how that is going to work out. The NO news changes literally the entire slate and of course, they are the last game on the slate. However, I digress. Let’s take a look at the best options for cash games on the night. 

Core 4

Jrue Holiday (DK $9,000) (FD $9,400) 

I like Holiday whether or not AD plays but boy if AD misses Holiday becomes an absolute must, even at the elevated price. This is certainly the game we are wanting to target and Holiday sets up so good. Add in the fact that he played his college ball at UCLA, and it is just the cherry on top. Super solid 25 percent usage rate on the year to go with a 1.2 DK point per minute clip at nearly 37 minutes. Not sure how you don’t love those kinds of numbers in a matchup like this. Then if AD is out, you can bump up all those numbers and I would be shocked if he didn’t go for 50+ on DK.

Read More
The Verdict: Top GPP Plays, 12.21.18

The Verdict: Top GPP Plays, 12.21.18

Welcome, to the Judge’s Verdict. We have a massive 10 game slate tonight. Let’s get right to business.

Here are some of my top tournament plays for tonight’s slate.

Note: The numbers in parenthesis refer to the salaries of that particular player. The first number is the FanDuel (“FD”) salary, while the second number is the DraftKings (“DK”) salary.

Kris Dunn (7.5, 7.3)

Zach Lavine and Porits are out for the Bulls tonight. That means all of the shots are going to Dunn and Markkanen. Dunn sees a 7.5% usage bump with Lavine/Portis (and AWOL Jabari Parker) out for a whopping total of 34%! That is something we have to attack tonight. Projections do not love Dunn, and he may go overlooked on this massive slate. He’s facing off against the corpse of D.J. Augustin, so Dunn has a significant athletic advantage as well.  We shall get it done with Dunn (wow, what an awful pun).

Read More
NBA Morning Thoughts 12.21.18

NBA Morning Thoughts 12.21.18

We have a juicy, 10-game NBA DFS slate tonight, so let’s get right to it …

Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets (o/u 217, CHA -3.5)

Detroit is 11th in defensive rating, 15th in pace.

Charlotte is 16th in defensive rating, 12th in pace.

While this is the third meeting between these two teams I, for some unknown reason, feel like they play each other every other day. This matchup deserves only one introduction, as both of these teams are the equivalent of the Spiderman pointing meme from a DFS perspective. There’s nothing sexy about this game, but there are a couple of studs who carry some appeal.

In NBA DFS the Pistons are Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin with maybe the occasional value wing like Reggie Bullock. Tonight, I’m only interested in one: Andre Drummond. Using our Player vs Team tool, Andre Drummond has smashed the Hornets twice this year, which logically makes sense. Cody Zeller is too small and not athletic enough to deal with Drummond on both the offensive and defensive glass. With so many pricey targets in good spots on the slate at center, including a few really strong cheaper options, Drummond will go under owned. He’s a strong GPP target.

Reggie Bullock has been on fire of late, and if you’re in the market for a lower middle priced option at SF, he’s a strong target.

I’m off on Blake tonight. He’s not easy to fit in, and there are more appealing options at PF on the slate.

Charlotte is the Kemba Walker show with a sprinkle of Jeremy Lamb. Lamb has priced himself out for me on FD at $7000, though he’s still priced fairly on Dk at $6200. Kemba torched the Pistons last week. It’s a strong spot for him and his high usage rate. Kemba just isn’t particularly easy to fit on a slate like tonight, and I expect most to feel that way. He will be low owned.

Read More
NBA DK GPP Breakdown 12/20

NBA DK GPP Breakdown 12/20

We have a really ugly two-game NBA slate tonight there is still a bunch of question marks, which actually makes this somewhat difficult to write. BUT we get 5x the crowns on DK if you enter the $5 tournament with 154,500 of your closest friends, so why not, right!?

On a serious note, how the heck do we have all these questionable players on a two-game slate, like this can not be real life. We have DeAndre Jordan, Lou Williams, Tyler Johnson, Justice Winslow, JJ Barea, James Ennis and Maxi Kleber. Seriously, how is this real? On a two game slate, anyone who would get minutes matters and all of these injuries makes it pretty difficult to decide that. So, I am going to be writing up my 4 favorite DK GPP plays with a lot of IF statements. 

Core 4

Dwight Powell (DK $3,600) 

This, as of now, is a GPP play but if we get Jordan news before lock and Powell is announced as the starter, he will end up being owned quite a bit. Powell is a point per minute guy and can really have a shot at an upside game with 25+ minutes. Granted, the closest he has gotten to that over the last 10 is 24 minutes, but he did have 29 DK points in that spot. Against the Lakers about a month ago, he went for 28.25 DK points in just 17 minutes. Point being, he still has a shot at getting there with Jordan but without Jordan, he is a must to me. 

Read More
NBA Morning Thoughts 12.20.18

NBA Morning Thoughts 12.20.18

Two-game NBA DFS slates are always the perfect time to either take the slate off, or get a bit weird with your lineup. My best advice on a super-small slate? Don’t play cash games, play multiple lineups in low-priced, high-prize contests. Two-game slates are the perfect time to go for a lottery ticket win.

Houston Rockets @ Miami Heat (o/u 208.5, HOU -3.5)

Houston is 27th in defensive rating, 29th in pace.

Miami is 9th in defensive rating, 15th in pace.

The Rockets head to Miami on a tail-end of a back to back to face a Heat team that has surprisingly struggled to win at home. In terms of a matchup, the Heat provide a slight pace-up spot but are also a fairly tough defense to go against. The Vegas 208.5 implied total isn’t the most ideal number, but on a two-game slate we can’t be picky!

This one is fairly straightforward: With only two games it’s pretty tough to fade James Harden. On super-small slates think less about value and more about total points, and Harden has the highest floor on the slate. The reason for fading Harden tonight is to strictly be different. From a matchup standpoint, the Heat have struggled to defend ball-dominant scoring guards, and that sounds exactly like Harden. This is a good spot for him.

The Heat have also struggled against traditional point guards, so Chris Paul is firmly worth considering. If you’re fading Harden, you should have Paul in your lineup. While both will be fairly high owned individually, stacking the two of them is a way to differentiate yourself tonight.

Expect Clint Capela to be fairly under owned, as center is one of the deeper positions for a two-game slate. But Clint is rock solid, and his high floor is desirable. The $8000 on DK is a nice price.

On a small slate we have to find a way to differentiate our lineups to attempt to win big, otherwise you will likely split your winnings with hundreds or thousands of people and that’s never fun. A Gerald Green and Danuel House stack-punt (new word?) is an interesting strategy on FD. On DK, I think having one of the two as a punt is an interesting idea for GPPs. On the second night of a back to back, both might see a few added minutes, Green is always capable of getting hot, and House has shown he is capable of producing.

On DK, Nene is a usable punt at center. Nene has produced in his limited minutes thus far on the year, so you can consider punting him at center on a two-game slate. Perhaps his day off yesterday will lead to added activity on the court tonight.

The Heat will be without Goran Dragic for the foreseeable future. While the Rockets are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA, they also continue to struggle to defend anyone. So this is a decent spot for Miami Heat players.

I’m really interested in Hassan Whiteside tonight, strictly because I think he will be the least-owned center on the slate. Whiteside is always a risk as his minutes are erratic, especially with the recent emergence of Bam. With that being said, Whiteside is the sort of risk I like to take on a two-game slate, as he carries legit 50+ point upside priced at $8000 on FD and $7000 on DK. That’s not particularly easy to find. Whiteside has the added bonus of facing Clint Capela, which will keep him around the rim whenever he is in the game, and give him the added opportunity of seeing extended minutes.

No Dragic means Tyler Johnson and Dwyane Wade will see added ball-handling opportunities. I’d expect both to be on the higher owned side, with Johnson potentially being one of the highest owned players on the slate. Wade is a fun target tonight, as this is an appealing matchup for him during his retirement tour. I’d expect Wade to try and show up vs his good friend Paul and the top player at his position, Harden.

No Dragic also means more ball-handling opportunities for Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow. A word of warning, though: While Justise said he’s good to go for tonight, the Heat have listed him as questionable. While Richardson is a bit pricey on both sites and not the easiest target to fit, the upside is there for him. Winslow is priced far more appealingly and I’d rather take a shot with him, but he also carries far more risk. If I’m only building one lineup I don’t think either would make the cut.

It seems like coach Spo has fully implemented both Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk into the rotation. Both have been consistently seeing 25+ minutes since Whiteside returned, and have produced well. Kelly is really cheap if he’s going to continue to play the minutes he’s been getting, having been over 5x value of his current price in eight of his last nine games. Of course, take everything I write about Kelly with a grain of salt, as he’s personally made it his mission to make me look dumb in the past.

I guess the Derrick Jones Jr. production run is real? I still don’t trust him, but it’s hard to ignore what he has done of late. The Rockets turn the ball over a lot, so Jones could see +steals.

Read More
The Verdict | Top NBA GPP Plays, 12.19.18

The Verdict | Top NBA GPP Plays, 12.19.18

Welcome, to the Judge’s Verdict. We have a massive 12-game NBA slate tonight. Let’s get right to business.

Here are some of my top tournament plays for tonight’s slate.

Note: The numbers in parenthesis refer to the salaries of that particular player. The first number is the FanDuel (“FD”) salary, while the second number is the DraftKings (“DK”) salary.

De’Aaron Fox (7.5, 7.0)

I will not be deterred from Joerger’s despicable actions on Monday night, where he played his starters a combined 47 minutes – the fewest in the shot clock era, which began in the 1954-1955 season. The one silver lining from that game is that we get Fox underpriced once again. Joerger and the Kings’ players should be ashamed of what took place on Monday, and they should be extra motivated tonight in a 234 over/under game vs. the Thunder. Shumpert and Bogdanovic are both out for the Kings tonight, so that should open a few more shots for Fox (even though the data does not suggest this). OKC does have legit defenders all over the court, so it’s not the easiest matchup in the world. If you prefer Rose in cash games, that does make some sense. However, in tournaments, I am going right back to Fox tonight. Before Monday’s debacle, he was playing his best basketball of the season and averaging 19 shots, 26.5 points, seven assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.5 steals in the two games prior to Monday. He just has the massive upside that I want in my lineups.

Read More
NBA Cash Breakdown 12/19

NBA Cash Breakdown 12/19

We have a massive 12-game NBA slate on tap for tonight and we have multiple studs in great spots. Luckily, we have gotten some news but plan on more coming before lock tonight. The Kings will be without Shumpert, Bogdanovic and Bagley for tonight so that certainly puts Bjelicia in play again. Vucevic OUT for the Magic puts Mo Bamba in play. No Randle or Mirotic for NO tonight, that certainly sets up really well for AD and possibly Diallo. Al Horford and Jeff Teague remain out so that puts Baynes and Rose in play again. We have Mike Conley and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson questionable and that could create even more value. Bottom line, this is a stars and scrubs night for sure. 

Core 4

Anthony Davis ($11,600) (FD $12,700) 

It is a steep price to pay on FD, but I am not sure how we get away from it tonight. So many minutes and so much usage is going to be vacated with Miro and Randle not playing tonight. Davis comes in with just about a 30 percent usage as it is and a 1.6 DK point per minute output on the year. In the very small sample with Miro and Randle out, he is averaging 2.2 DK points per minute. I am not sure the Bucks want to put Giannis on Davis for the entire game, as that is just a lot to ask as far as defending Davis and having the burden of being a lot of the MIL offense. Even if they do, I am not worried. In the two games that they faced off last year, AD put up 51 DK points per game, and that was with limited defensive stats. Much like LeBron last night, I think we just have to play Davis tonight. 

Read More
NBA Morning Thoughts 12.19.18

NBA Morning Thoughts 12.19.18

Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls (o/u 215.5, BK -2.5)

Brooklyn is 22nd in defensive rating, 23rd in pace.

Chicago is 20th in defensive rating, 7th in pace.

The Nets, winners of six straight, head to Chicago on a second of a back-to-back to face a Bulls team that are 2-8 in their last 10. While this is a decent spot to target Nets players, the back to back and Kenny Atkinson make that more of a challenge.

While D’Angelo Russell balled last night vs his former team, Russell has struggled on the second of back-to-backs thus far in the year. His minutes drop from 29.65 to 26.83 and his TS% from 53% to 43% leads to him averaging roughly 10 less fantasy points on the second of a back-to-back compared to normal rest.

Spencer Dinwiddie is one of the beneficiaries of Russell struggling on the second half of a back-to-back. While Dinwiddie’s minutes are a touch down, his usage goes up, thus resulting in a slightly-higher fantasy output. He’s not cheap, but I like Dinwiddie in this spot. It’s a strong matchup for him.

While his minutes have dropped a touch of late, the Bulls struggle vs opposing centers, Jarrett Allen is an interesting GPP target. This risk is his minutes.

Read More
The Verdict | Top NBA GPP Plays, 12.18.18

The Verdict | Top NBA GPP Plays, 12.18.18

Welcome, to the Judge’s Verdict. We have an interesting four-game NBA slate tonight, and I am going to make a wild guess that every team’s starters will play more than a combined 47 minutes. That is how many minutes the Kings’ starters received last night – the fewest in the shot clock era. That was the most surreal experience I’ve had watching an NBA game in 30 years. I shall address this more on tomorrow’s show. But for now, a new day is here and tonight, we bounce back and win all the money.

Here are some of my top tournament plays for tonight’s slate.

Note: The numbers in parenthesis refer to the salaries of that particular player. The first number is the FanDuel (“FD”) salary, while the second number is the DraftKings (“DK”) salary.

Jamal Murray (8.1, 6.6)

The entire DFS world is having cataclysmic seizures over the Wizards/Hawks game, and I understand. A game with a 238 over/under should cause people to get overly excited. However, we only have four games, and in order to take down tournaments, we are going to need to find a few pieces from other games with lesser-owned players.

Enter Jamal Murray.

Murray was playing elite basketball and winning me lots of money before his body became banged up with several different ailments (his latest one was a shin injury). However, he hasn’t missed any games, Denver is still without Harris and Millsap, his minutes will still be 35+, and he’s starting to show signs of life again. In the fourth quarter against Toronto, Murray had 15 of his 19 points and single-handedly led Denver to taking down Toronto. If Murray’s body is feeling better and he stays aggressive against the Mavs tonight, I expect him to get us 40+ fantasy points.

Read More
1 18 19 20 42

Compare