NBA

NBA GPP Breakdown 1/18

NBA GPP Breakdown 1/18

We have seven decent NBA games tonight and honestly, there are quite a bit of plays we can make. Anthony Davis is the only really high priced play so we can certainly make a really nice balanced lineup if you choose not to play him. Much like Harden, it is really hard not to play him right now, but I do think you can get away with it on this slate. Let’s dig in!

SIDE NOTE: Last night, I think I went off the board too much with Giles and Holmes where in reality on most nights you don’t need to go that far off the board to take down tournaments. Last night for example in the $40 SE contest, the winning lineup only had one player under 10 percent, and it was Thad Young at six percent. The lineup also had five players over 20 percent, including a 69 percent owned Bobby Portis. My point here is that in the NBA on most night, the good plays are the good plays for a reason. It is much easier to predict the NBA that it is the NFL. So after all of that, I am just going to focus on my favorite four plays tonight instead of trying to find the one percent play who goes off because honestly, I may nail that 1 play maybe once every two weeks. Never mind trying to nail all four in one night. That, in my opinion is doing much more harm than good for you guys.

Core 4

Nikola Vucevic (FD $9,500) (DK $9,400) 

Really awesome FD price combined with an awesome matchup certainly has me intrigued. Vuc has been solid recently. Nothing really stands out but we all know that he has major upside and this is certainly a matchup where we could see that upside come through. Brooklyn has been giving up points to centers in bunches and that certainly isn’t going to stop here. I also like the fact that he has a really nice floor, the Vuc “poor” games recently have still netted us right around 40 DK points and you’ll certainly take that for a floor. 

Read More
NBA Morning Thoughts 01.18.19

NBA Morning Thoughts 01.18.19

Boogie returns tonight and the Warriors are officially NBA Champions. Just kidding. We have ourselves a slow starting but really interesting seven-game NBA DFS slate on our hands, let’s get right to it…

Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons (o/u 207.5, DET -2)

Miami is 8th in defensive rating, 22nd in pace.

Detroit is 13th in defensive rating, 21st in pace.

We start the night off in Detroit in a not very exciting NBA DFS game. Only one team intro is needed as these teams are mirror images of each other in terms of defensive metrics. Miami’s deep rotation provides little interest to me tonight. One important stat when considering Pistons players, Miami is fourth in defensive rating and 30th in pace(!) over their last 15 games. I’m perfectly fine with fading this game.

If you’re looking for exposure in this game, you’re already a risk taker, why not take that risk one step farther and target Hassan Whiteside? His minutes are a mess and we never know when he’s actually going to see more than 25+. Perhaps versus Blake and Drummond, Miami will be forced to play big with Bam at the four and Whiteside at the five at times. Whiteside always carries GPP upside.

Justise Winslow has been the most consistent Heat producer. I don’t mind him in this spot, I just don’t want to particularly spend up for him here with a lot of pricier players in better matchups tonight.

The same goes with Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin, with a lot of pricey studs in strong matchups this isn’t the matchup where I want to spend a little less than 16 percent of my cap.

Read More
NBA GPP Breakdown 1/17

NBA GPP Breakdown 1/17

Five NBA games and we have some pretty good matchups here. It is kind of a bummer that this whole Toronto thing came about today because this was shaping up to be one of my favorite five-game slates. Now, we have to deal with a lot of ownership on TOR guys and I am not sure we can really get away from it, as there is so much usage and so many minutes missing without both Lowry and Kawhi out there. Bobby Portis is another name going around as heavy chalk tonight with Wendell Carter due to miss. However, with this TOR value, we now have some really nice pivots that would have been much more chalky prior to this news so let’s dig in!

Core 4

Harry Giles (FD $3,600) (DK $3,900) 

I really like this game environment as a whole and this is a guy that is going to go overlooked big time tonight. I get that he is not playing huge minutes, but we can also be really efficient in his minutes. A couple games ago against DET, he played 23 minutes and put up 31 DK points. We will certainly take that. This is going to be his first time playing back home as a pro. He grew up in NC and played his college basketball at Duke. I must say I am a little biased with this play as well because I have known Giles since he was in the seventh grade. The AAU team I coached back then used to travel all over for tournaments and my best player and Giles used to go at each other all the time. I just think being back home he is going to bring it tonight, and he should be really low owned. 

Read More
NBA Morning Thoughts 01.17.19

NBA Morning Thoughts 01.17.19

Welcome to a Top Targets addition of NBA Morning Thoughts. I think it’s important to mix-up the breakdown a bit so with that, here are my favorite plays for today’s NBA DFS slate…

*NOTE – Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard were ruled OUT after completing this article. Impacted Raptors players have been updated.

PGs

Russell Westbrook (FD $12500, DK $11800)

Lines: 226, OKC -10 vs LAL

Westbrook is the most expensive player on the slate and for good reason, as he finds himself at home in a pace-up matchup versus the Lakers. Westbrook went for 56.2 FD points and 60 DK points in their previous meeting, which isn’t quite enough to justify his price on FD. Still, the Lakers’ third-ranked pace draws my eye and I think we MAY get Westbrook a little lower owned then he should be. Another point to note, I’m confident Westbrook will come out firing after an embarrassing loss to the Hawks their last game out. At home, we should get a fully engaged Westbrook in a pace-friendly game environment with an implied total of 226.

Read More
NBA Cash Breakdown 1/16

NBA Cash Breakdown 1/16

We have pretty good eight-game NBA slate tonight. Some key injury news is still lingering so we need to make sure we stay up on that news. Damian Lillard is the main one we have to keep an eye on. We finally have Harden at 13K on DK and 14K on FD, and he is in a great matchup. So, of course, we have to decide whether to play him or not and honestly, it is really hard to fade him right now. Let’s dig in. 

Read More
DRAFT Rankings for NBA 1/16/19

DRAFT Rankings for NBA 1/16/19

Tonight’s slate is loaded, but James Harden and Anthony Davis are in the best spots to break the slate. The Rockets are undermanned and will lean on Harden for more than 50% of their offense. Anthony Davis gets a team he matches up well against, in a high-scoring game that should be competitive. With two […]

Read More
NBA Morning Thoughts 01.16.19

NBA Morning Thoughts 01.16.19

We have a star-filled eight-game NBA DFS slate on our hands, let’s get right to it…

Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons (o/u 205.5, DET -3.5)

Orlando is 14th in defensive rating, 26th in pace.

Detroit is 13th in defensive rating, 21st in pace.

The night starts off in Detroit as two slow-paced middle-of-the-pack defenses square up. This is a gross NBA DFS game environment and the capable producers on each team are all expensive making it tough to target this game. We have a few much more compelling games down the road, don’t be afraid to fade this game and take the “zero” until 8 pm ET.

That being said, there’s one player in this matchup who is attractive (to target…sorry Vuc) and that is Nikola Vucevic. The slow pace doesn’t exactly matter for Vuc, as Orlando will run countless sets for him in the low post. The matchup is actually good for him, as Detroit has struggled to contain skilled scoring centers like Vuc. I’ve said this before, as good of a rebounder as Andre Drummond is, he’s a really poor defender. Vuc should be able to exploit him. $9200 on FD and $8900 on DK are fair prices for him, I like Vuc a good amount tonight.

While Aaron Gordon has produced well in back to back games, I’m off of him here as Blake draws a ton of fouls and the slow pace will negatively affect Gordon. This isn’t the spot I want to spend up on him.

Blake Griffin is usable on DK priced at $9200. Like Vuc, he will see a lot of low post usage and the slow pace doesn’t exactly affect him.

If you’re looking for value, especially on DK, Ish Smith is an interesting punt. He’s too cheap at $3300 and should be back in the 20-minute range. It’s a decent chance to buy him while his price is down.

Read More
The Verdict | Top NBA GPP Plays, 1.15.19

The Verdict | Top NBA GPP Plays, 1.15.19

Welcome, to the Judge’s Verdict. We have a nice six-game NBA slate tonight, so let’s get right down to business.

Here are some of my top tournament plays for today’s slate.

Note: The numbers in parenthesis refer to the salaries of that particular player. The first number is the FanDuel (“FD”) salary, while the second number is the DraftKings (“DK”) salary.

Kris Dunn (7.1, 6.9)

I am hoping the low over/under in Bulls/Lakers at 215 (lowest on the slate) pulls ownership away from this game. I like several guys in this game, including both Lonzo and Dunn. If had to lean one, though, I think I prefer Dunn slightly. He is starting to stuff the stat sheet consistently now. Box score shows won’t tell you the full story with Dunn, as the Bulls keep getting blown out. However, against the struggling Lakers, this game should stay close tonight. In his last four games, Dunn has had at least two steals and has been very active on both ends when he’s on the court. He’s also averaging 8.8 assists in his last five games, so he is a guy who has a safe floor with a massive ceiling if this game can stay close and play faster than Vegas expects. I actually like the Dunn/Lonzo combo on FD if you have the salary for it and are going to fade Westbrook.

Read More
1 2 33

Compare