NBA

NBA GPP Breakdown 12/9

NBA GPP Breakdown 12/9

NBA GPP Breakdown 12/9

3 ugly games on a Sunday but like I said earlier in the week, there is still money to be made! Let’s take a look at 4 GPP plays that I like for tonight. 

Core 4

Mitchell Robinson (DK $3,400) (FD $3,700) 

Robinson has found his way into 21 minutes in each of the last 2 games and has produced just over 1 DK point per minute in those games. The issue with Robinson is obviously his foul trouble but if he can avoid that he certainly has the upside at just $3,400.  His real upside comes on the defensive end where he is averaging just about 2 blocks a game. Granted, that is what also gets him into foul trouble but if he can avoid that, upside is there. 

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NBA | Sunday 12.09.18

NBA | Sunday 12.09.18

Sunday’s can be for NBA DFS too, right? Tonight isn’t the best example of a prime NBA DFS Sunday slate but nonetheless here is my breakdown.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors (o/u 229, TOR -5)

Milwaukee is 6th in defensive rating, 4th in pace.

Toronto is 7th in defensive rating, 13th in pace.

This is a really good showdown between two of the best teams in the East. From a DFS standpoint, this game is highlighted by a pair of SF’s in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard; picking one of or both of them is a key decision in terms of roster construction. Although both of these teams are really good defensively, the expected pace of this game outweighs their defense, I’m not worried about targeting this game.

TOP TARGETS

Giannis Antetokounmpo + Kawhi Leonard

I’ve lumped these two together for obvious reasons. On a small 3 game slate it’s hard not to have at least one of them in your lineups. 1 vs 1, I’m leaning Kawhi mostly because of price, he’s much easier to fit. That being said, we’ve seen Giannis explode in these type of games vs top teams.

Brook Lopez (FD $5400, DK $4600)

On a small slate finding a good cheap option with upside is crucial, Lopez offers that.

Jonas Valanciunas (FD $5100, DK $5300)

Jonas is close to being on the radar as he’s mostly a high upside GPP target. My guess would be he sees some added minutes and potentially gets the start to combat Brook Lopez’s size. Lopez plays 28+ minutes a game, we could see more of Jonas if Ibaka struggles to deal with Lopez’s size.

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The Verdict | Top NBA GPP Plays, 12.8.18

The Verdict | Top NBA GPP Plays, 12.8.18

Welcome, to the Judge’s Verdict. We have an excellent, yet odd eight-game NBA slate tonight with tons of value but not a lot of stars. We will have to dig deep to outsmart the super computers on this slate, as they are salivating at the opportunity to play every possible bum tonight.

Here are some of my top tournament plays for tonight’s slate.

Note: The numbers in parenthesis refer to the salaries of that particular player. The first number is the FanDuel (“FD”) salary, while the second number is the DraftKings (“DK”) salary.

Jamal Murray (7.6, 7.8)

I loved Murray last night, and I will go right back to him again on Saturday night. My favorite thing in NBA DFS is attacking Trae Young on the defensive end and Atlanta in general. They’re an embarrassing defensive team, and they still lead the league in pace. Denver is really banged up, as both Gary Harris and Millsap are out indefinitely. Murray in his last three games has averaged over 40 minutes, 20 shot attempts, 25 points, eight assists, and five rebounds. I am slightly concerned over some minor ailments Murray is dealing with himself, but this is just too tasty of a matchup for me to pass up on.

Note: I loved Sexton last night too, and with George Hill gone – I will go right back to him as well tonight.

Alec Burks (4.0, 3.9)

This one is tough for me to write, as in my high entry H2H vs. Chipotle last night, he used Burks (I had heartless Hart) and that turned out to be the deciding factor in our matchup (the rest of his lineup was awful per usual in our H2Hs). Burks, besides Fox, was the best player on the court last night. With George Hill gone and the corpse of Rodney Hood injured, Burks played 38 minutes and had 22 points, seven rebounds, nine assists, and one steal. He was all over the court, was the Cavs’ best playmaker, and was the most aggressive player on the court. Burks has always been a guy that jumps off the screen when you watch him play, as he is a versatile guard who can get buckets. He won me a lot of money last year when Mitchell was out for Utah. His lack of shooting and inability to space the floor is probably why NASA coaches don’t play more in the modern NBA. But for tonight, for the banged up Cavs, he has a chance to put up a big number again against the Wizards. 

Juan Hernangomez (5.0, 4.3)

Hernangomez has been playing excellent lately, and his number should only go up with Millsap being out. A lot of people will flock to Lyles or Plumlee with Millsap out, and that does make sense – but Coach Malone could simply move Hernangomez to the power forward spot tonight against Atlanta. Either way, he is an elite play tonight at his price. In the last couple games, Hernangomez has averaged 14.5 points, seven rebounds, two assists, one steal, and one block in 36 minutes. I actually like the fact that this is a back to back for Denver, as this makes it more likely that the Hawks keep it close tonight against a very solid, yet banged up Denver team. If you roster him, just remember that he’s not a high usage guy, so any extra shots we get would be a bonus.

Larry Nance (5.3, 4.7)

Nance got the start last night after Hill was traded, and he disappointed with 11 points and seven rebounds in 31 minutes. However, the only relevant stat for me in that line is the minutes. Nance was 6.3K on FD less than 10 days ago when he was starting, and he is capable of gobbling up rebounds, blocks, and steals in a fast paced game. Tonight, he faces a Wizards team that should provide the perfect opportunity for him to showcase his elite athleticism (granted, last night the King’s provided the same opportunity). I am hoping recency bias leads most DFS players away from Nance, and I will gladly dance with Nance on Saturday night.

Denver FTW

To me, there is just no substitute for pace. When a team plays at warp speed like Atlanta, blocks and steal and fantasy points just fall into each player’s lap. Every lineup I build is loaded with Denver, especially given the fact they are without Harris and Millsap. My favorite center is Jokic but if you need to save, Plumlee is also an elite option tonight. I know we are all sick of the Zellers and Plumlees, but Mason Plumlee is actually an extremely talented basketball player. He has very quietly been stealing Jokic’s minutes for the past month now. He’s been playing so darn well that there are certain nights that Coach Malone can’t take him off the court. And recently, Malone even started playing Jokic and Plumlee together (he did this last year but was hesitant to this year because of the sacred word “spacing”). On a site like DK, I would have no issue using both Jokic and Plumlee tonight against a Hawks team that oozes free fantasy points and zero defense to any player that steps out on the court.

Alright, the Judge’s Verdict is in and it is final. Good luck tonight!

If you have any comments/feedback, I’d love to hear it. You can find me on twitter @DanielAGreen1. Also, be sure to check out my NBA DFS podcast DG Courtroom every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday during the NBA season.

Sign up with promo code TheJudge to get $25 off the NBA Season Subscription or $10 off the all sports month to month subscription.

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NBA Cash Breakdown 12/8

NBA Cash Breakdown 12/8

Eight NBA games this Saturday night and we have a lot of question marks out there. I am writing this around 1 pm, so we do not have much news yet other than a John Wall popping up as questionable with an illness. For further news, we are just going to have to monitor and update in the discord channel as we get closer to lock. My advice is just to be ready to make changes and try and have your if/then lineups ready to go. Try not to be caught off guard by a player that is already listed as questionable. 

Core 4

Tristan Thompson (DK $7,100) (FD $8,100) 

I like him much better on DK but as a whole, Thompson has been a cash staple of mine for a little while now. Obviously disappointed last night, but he only took three shots and the game was never really close. He played 30 minutes, but he was basically just jogging from the front of the rim to the front of the rim. Now, he gets a matchup with the worst rebounding team in the league with WAS. This is also a big pace bump for CLE so we will see more possessions in this game, and we all know that more possessions equals more opportunity to score fantasy points. I would be utterly shocked if Thompson doesn’t double-double and have at least 40 DK points. 

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NBA | Saturday, 12/8

NBA | Saturday, 12/8

I like to start by identifying which NBA teams are in the best game environment. Identifying pace-up spots is more than just looking at who plays a faster paced team. I try to quantify pace boost by projecting the pace of each game and then comparing it to the teams’ averages. I will then go tier-by-tier (price-wise), breaking down the plays that stand out to me, and which chalk merits fading (on bigger slates, don’t expect anyone to command fade-worthy ownership unless there is big injury news). I’ll summarize by position at the end.

Games/Teams to Target
Find NBA team stats here.
Find player rates here.
All stats I mention are from the past 10 games.

Here are my Pace Projections alongside opponent defensive ratings for today’s slate:

I start by multiplying the Pace Factor of each team, then dividing by league average. Thus, a team gets a pace boost anytime they play a team that is faster than the league average. Finally, I make a small adjustment to weight the pace of the home team more, which is a nod to Vegas totals more heavily reflecting the pace of the hosts.

Denver gets an enormous pace boost against the hapless Hawks. 9.7 possessions is one of the highest boosts we’ve seen all year. Hopefully, the fact that the game is in Atlanta helps the Hawks keep it close (as well as Millsap’s absence).

Perhaps the best spot on the slate belongs to Indiana, as their pace boost also comes against the poor Sacramento defense, yet Sacramento is good enough that the game should stay close. The current Vegas spread is just four points.

The Lakers have a difficult matchup with Memphis after back to back cake-walks against the Spurs’ “defense”, and Portland has to deal with the now-stingy, Covington-led Wolves’ defense.

Picks!
This is sort of an odd night, as there is tons of value, yet very few “stud” options. Chances are, you’re going to have to fade a number of value options that you would ordinarily love to have in your lineup to fit numerous studs.

9k+
LeBron James
LeBron and the Lakers are not in a good spot, but it might not matter. With all of the value, LeBron could be worth playing, simply for the likelihood that he’s the night’s top scorer. Over the past ten games, LeBron’s usage rate is over 33 percent (it had previously been below 30 percent). His price, on the other hand, hasn’t budged. Plus, Ingram’s absence should keep his usage rate elevated, if not bump it even further towards Harden’s league-leading 36 percent.

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NBA Cash Breakdown 12/7

NBA Cash Breakdown 12/7

Ten-game NBA slate tonight. Some interesting news has already fallen. We have Embiid out tonight against DET, which would have been a smash spot for him. Whiteside is going to miss so Bam and Kelly O are firmly in play. A sneaky one that we have to keep an eye on is Domantas Sabonis. He is listed questionable right now but if he misses that will certainly make me like some pieced on IND. Draymond Green is suddenly questionable and so is T.J. Warren, both pretty important to the slate. 

Core 4

Kyle Kuzma (DK $6,800) (FD $7,100) 

Great price on both sites. With Ingram ruled out, that just solidifies 35 + minutes for Kuzma in this spot. The Lakers and Spurs just played and Kuzma played 39 minutes and had 41.75 DK points on only 7-19 shooting. The upside in this spot is massive and the worry of his floor is greatly helped by without Ingram. It is pretty crazy, but the Spurs can’t defend anyone and they sit 29th in defensive rating. They especially struggle with athletic wings, which is exactly what Kuzma is. 

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