FANSHARE Ownership Narratives: Week 14 – Part 3 Running Backs Where OPP MOVE DST OPP Sentiment DK Salary 1 Jaylen Samuels vs ATL (+1) 4 Worst 95% ¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† 3,700 2 Ekekiel Elliott vs PHI (+2) 100% ¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† 8,600 Salary cap % (FD=14.67% , DK=17.20%) 3 Jeffery Wilson vs DEN (-2) 82% ¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† 3,800 Salary cap […]
This is shaping up to be a fun and interesting week. We have a handful of QBs that are in great spots that should lead to spread out ownership across the board. We also have more backup RBs that should be thrust into bigger roles this week. Let’s get to it.
Ben Roethlisberger (6800 DK / 8600 FD)
Big Ben is thrust into the exact same situation that Mahomes was last week. We loaded up on Pat last week, so let‚Äôs load up on Ben again here. The starting RB is out for a pass first team. This means they should lean on the pass even more, especially in the red zone. Against the Raiders, there should be very little resistance by the defense. This sets up for a big day for Big Ben.
Before we even get why Big Ben is a good play, let‚Äôs take a quick look at the matchup. The Raiders in the last sixe games are giving up 6.33 more points than their opponent averages on the season. Only once in the last six have the Raiders held a team under their season average. The Steelers average 28.8 points, so five touchdowns in this game is a very realistic outcome.
Opponents Points Scored vs Avg.
Colts – 42 ppg average – 27.1
49ers – 34 ppg average – 21.2
Chargers – 20 ppg average – 28.3
Cardinals – 21 ppg average – 14.6
Ravens – 34 ppg average – 24.8
Chiefs – 40 ppg average – 37
The Raiders defensive efficiency is garbage, and that is likely being nice about it. They allow more passing touchdowns and yards per attempts than any team in the NFL. However, they also allow the fewest pass attempts per game against at just 28. The Steelers will not take their foot of the gas and grind out a win in this one, they will throw, and when they are done, throw some more. Ben Roethlisberger leads all quarterbacks in pass attempts per game at 43.08. The Steelers are also missing James Conner this season, which will lead to even more volume. When he has been off the field this season they throw it 72.7% of the time. The lack of volume against won’t save the Raiders pass defense this week, look for the least efficient passing defense in the NFL to get up lit up like a Christmas tree Sunday afternoon.
Only Jets beat reporters think that Mike McCarthy was a good coach. An addition by subtraction (even if Michael Scott says that isn’t possible) the Packers offense should have a new look and carve up the Falcons at home. When Joe Philbin left Green Bay the first time Rodgers was very upset, he and Philbin go over every play and make sure Rodgers is comfortable with it. Look for Rodgers to have more efficient throws, after leading the league so far this season on throws outside the numbers thus far this season.
The Falcons defense has not been able to stop anyone and I don‚Äôt expect that to change this week. They are 8th percentile allowing 25.04 DK points per game, giving up 2.08 passing touchdowns and 273 passing yards per game.
Value: Lamar Jackson
While everyone wants to go Josh Allen this week, I am passing on the Quarterback in the lowest total game of the year. If I want rushing upside, why not go Lamar Jackson for just a few hundred dollars more? While the Chiefs have allowed the least amount of rushing attempts against this season, they haven’t played anyone like Lamar Jackson.
Jackson has not had less than 11 carries yet as a QB, but also has not had more than 25 pass attempts. As 6.5 point road dogs, I look for his passing numbers to have to go up in this one, and more scrambles in this game as opposed to design runs to try and keep up with the Chiefs high powered offense. The Chiefs have allowed the most draftkings points per game, pass attempts, and passing yards per game to an opponent this year. If Jackson gets passing volume mixed in with his rushing upside, it could lead to a big day.
If you are new to this article, I encourage you to read the stats used in this matchup matrix. I use these advanced stats to identify top running back matchups on paper for the week. These advanced stats are rushing only. This is meant to help supplement the usual pass catching research, such as targets or receptions allowed to running backs.
If you have checked out this article before, you understand the stats used, and can jump right to the good stuff in the matrix.
Adjusted line yards
These are the yards the O-line is responsible for producing. For example, if a running back gets tackled for a loss, most of the time this is because the line did not block the defenders well enough. On the other side, if a running back has a five-yard rush, this is likely due to solid line play and a hole being created. This is the base of a running game.
Rank Player POS TEAM Notes
1 Christian McCaffrey RB CAR The second week in a row that he’s been ranked No. 1 because of a prime matchup while rolling in on a hot streak. He gets the Browns at home this time around.
2 Ezekiel Elliot RB DAL One of the safest bets for 20 points on the NFL slate. He torched the Eagles in Week 10 and all signs point to a similar outcome.
3 Saquon Barkley RB NYG Lacks the ceiling of CMC or Zeke because his opponent’s offense is being run by Mark Sanchez. Expect a poor pace of game in this one.
4 Todd Gurley RB LAR The Bears have a top-five rushing defense and he could be another victim of a lousy game script because of an injured QB – if Trubisky plays, Gurley will be in a better spot.
5 Alvin Kamara RB NO Kamara can be had cheap for a RB facing the Bucs, but his production has dried up considerably with Mark Ingram back in the mix. High-ceiling/ low-floor play, this week.
The betting tool is very confident in the Eagles tonight, and an Eagles onslaught makes a lot of sense for this game.
LB Zach Brown (knee):
If Zach Brown misses this game, it is a massive boost to the Eagles run game. With Brown on the field, the Redskins are allowing 4.12 yards per carry compared to 5.5 with him off the field. The explosive run percentage and run success rate also jump with him off the field.
WR Jamison Crowder (ankle):
Explosive pass percentage jumps five percent with him on the field. Has taken zero snaps with Colt McCoy this year.
CB Quinton Dunbar (shin):¬†
With Dunbar — YPA: 7.75. Explosive pass percentage: 13.3 percent.¬†Without Dunbar — YPA: 8.77. Explosive pass percentage: 23.2 percent.
DL Matt Ioannidis (shin):¬†
Run success rate against jumps five percent with him off the field
RT Morgan Moses (knee)
IMPORTANT NOTE: BOTH STARTING GUARDS ARE OUT
Run success with 48.1percent, pass success with 48.0 percent
Run success without 32.3 percent, pass success without 36.4 percent
WR Trey Quinn (ankle)
TE Jordan Reed (back)
CB Jalen Mills (foot)
Explosive plays jump with no Mills on the field. 4.3 percent explosive run and 16.3 percent explosive pass against, while 9.7 percent explosive run and 20.3 percent explosive pass percentage against. The Eagles sack percentage has also dipped 2.2 percent.
CB Avonte Maddox (knee, ankle)
Run Success rate nine percent lower with him off the field, while YPA jumps from 7.33 to 8.32 without Maddox this year.
LB Jordan Hicks (calf)
Hicks has missed only 87 snaps this season. The Eagles have been worse against the pass but far better versus the run on limited snaps.
RB Darren Sproles (hamstring)
Will mix into the passing game if he plays.
DE Michael Bennett (foot)
The Eagles have given up 25% explosive pass rate with no Bennett on the field, just 14.3% with him on the field.
RB Josh Adams (hip)
Coming off back-to-back abysmal fantasy performances, Wentz is in a nice spot at home against a beat up Redskins team. He gets a big boost if Quinton Dunbar is out, as the Redskins have been gashed by big plays with him off the field. The Redskins have been an average pass defense on the year finishing between 48-66th percentile in every pass defense category in TQE‚Äôs head-to-head tool.
The key to Wentz having a big game is if he gets the volume. He is averaging 36.78 pass attempts and 289.11 yards per game this season, but in his last two weeks, he has attempted 28 and 33 pass attempts respectively, two of his three lowest volume games of the year. If he gets the volume, he should smash, but even if he doesn‚Äôt should score 15+ in this one. On a one-game slate, he should still find his way onto a majority of rosters.
Usually, if you want to take down a GPP, you need to have a bit of a contrarian mindset. From a simplified macro game-theory perspective, if you have the same players as everyone, it‚Äôs a lot harder to win a larger tournament. Most tournament winning teams have a mix of ‚Äúthe chalk‚ÄĚ or higher owned […]
This is shaping up to be a fun week. There are some pretty straightforward plays, especially in cash games. I am looking to highlight the main guys you should be building around in cash games this week. As a side note, RB is extremely deep this week, so even though I may not have listed […]
Cam Newton is your chalk, cash game quarterback worth paying up for this week, taking on the bottom of the barrel Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. The Bucs allow more passing touchdowns that any other team in the league and simply do not force interceptions. In their first meeting Cam Newton only finished with 21.18 points, but the Panthers scored 42 total points and Cam didn‚Äôt play a big roll in the touchdowns. Look for that to change this time around as Newton is too big of a part of the offense to be held down. He has scored less than 18 DK points only once this year and has the highest weekly floor due to his rushing upside. No QB has more rushing attempts or rushing yards per game this season and when you combine that with the secondary he faces, all systems are going to Newton this week.
Mr. Passing Touchdown Andrew Luck is too cheap and will come in under-owned this week. Luck has thrown for three or more passing touchdowns in every game since Week 4, three times throwing for four touchdowns. His efficiency has been off the charts as even with his volume falling compared to the beginning of the season, he continues to put up monster numbers. Luck has the efficiency, consistency, and takes on a team that has likely quit in a must-win spot. Look for Luck to add another week to the three touchdown streak.
FANSHARE Ownership Narratives: Week 13 – Part 1 RB Where OPP MOVE DST OPP Sentiment DK Salary 1 Christian McCaffrey at TB 8 Worst 93% ¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† 8,800 Salary cap % (FD14.67% , DK=17.600%) 2 Aaron Jones vs ARZ 2 Worst 100% ¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† 6,700 Salary cap % (FD=12.67% , DK=13.400%) 3 Saquon Barkley vs CHI 3 […]