Betting

Week 14 Player Prop Bets

Week 14 Player Prop Bets

Week 13 wasn’t kind to me in the player prop department and most notably betting on Aaron Jones. After playing snap rates of 74 > 90 > 75 percent in consecutive weeks, Jones proceeded to play just 51 percent of the snaps in Week 13, his lowest since Week 8. This game as a whole was an outlier, as the Packers lost outright as 14-point favorites and The Action Network even labeled it the biggest upset in NFL history. With the weekly bad beat section out of the way, onto Week 14.

Andrew Luck Over 292.5 Passing Yards and Deshaun Watson Over 244.5 Passing Yards

This game isn’t getting enough hype this week and I’m not really sure why. Both teams combined for 71 points in their last meeting with the Texans beating the Colts 37-34. I don’t think much is going to be different this time around.  Both teams have the Nos. 1 and 2 easiest strength of schedule of opposing offenses faced and haven’t been good otherwise.

There’s a lot of buzz around the Texans defense but in reality, they have been stifling poor teams. We can’t fault a team for having a poor schedule, but we can look at how they performed against teams with similar efficiencies.  They have played against the easiest schedule of passing offense this season, only playing against two that rank inside of the top-10 (Colts and Patriots), but it is actually even worse than it looks. The list of opposing offenses and QBs they played since their Week 4 bout with the Colts is laughable.

Week 5: Dak Prescott (Before Cowboys figured out how to play offense)
Week 6 (Home): Nathan Peterman/Josh Allen
Week 7: Blake Bortles
Week 8 (Home): Brock Osweiler
Week 9: Case Keenum
Week 11: Alex Smith/Colt McCoy
Week 12 (Home): Marcus Mariota
Week 13 (Home): Baker Mayfield
If you didn’t even get the smallest bit nauseous reading that list I’m judging you. It would be really concerning if the Texans defense didn’t play well against this list of bottom-dwelling signal-callers.

Luck should re-expose the Texans defense he lit up for 464 yards last time around. Also, when writing this there is optimism TY Hilton will suit up in his dream spot against the team he bi-annually wrecks.

The Colts defense has been in a similar situation and Rotoworld’s Nick Mensio pointed this out on Twitter:

Watson’s attempts have been severely limited in those games, as the Texans have opted for a run-heavy approach and were never forced to air the ball out. This game should end up as the opposite with both teams moving up and down the field with ease.

With a game total at 50 and both squads likely to expose the opposing team’s overrated defense this game sets up extremely well for both passers to smash their passing props.

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Noonan’s Week 14 Totals

Noonan’s Week 14 Totals

The betting market was very volatile this week, and I’m sure we’ll see a lot more line movement between the time you read this and kick-off on Sunday. After another 3-2 week ATS, I’m hitting at 63.4 percent on the season, and looking to get another 5-0 on the board here. Let’s dig in.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys – OVER 43.5
Both of these clubs made mid-season acquisitions at wide receiver, and while Amari Cooper hit the ground running in Dallas, it took a few weeks for Golden Tate to assimilate, but it appears they’ve finally figured out how to use him moving forward. Dallas ranks 27th in passing success rate on the season, but since the trade, they rank 14th, and their explosive play rate has spiked as well. The newfound ability to stretch the defense vertically helps Ezekiel Elliott, and the Cowboys are wisely leaning on their All-Pro running back.

While the eye test clearly tells us that Dallas’ defense is on the rise, some of the numbers don’t bear that out quite as confidently. There’s no doubt that they’ll enter this important NFC East battle on a high after dominating the league’s best offense, but Philly should have no problem moving the ball here. There’s too much recency bias in this number. Give me the over.

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Betting guide for Week 14 in NFL

Betting guide for Week 14 in NFL

2018 Record: 38-25-2 (60 percent)

Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns +1
This is a really interesting line. Last week, the Cleveland Browns were just 5.5-point underdogs on the road against the Houston Texans. Let’s look into the numbers here.

Offensive AY/A:

Houston: 7.7
Carolina: 7.0
Cleveland: 6.1
Defensive AY/A:

Cleveland: 6.2
Houston: 6.5
Carolina: 7.4
Houston is clearly a much better team than the Carolina Panthers. Despite that, this line suggests that the Panthers would be seven-point favorites at home, more than Houston was favored last week. Carolina is probably closer to Cleveland in talent than Houston. There are some logical flaws here.

The overreaction to the Browns this year has been crazy. Baker Mayfield plays well, there’s huge value on the Houston Texans the next week. Baker Mayfield plays poorly, there’s huge value on taking him the next week. These recent lines seem to be reacting too strongly based on what how the team looked like just the week before…which is odd since the Panthers could not stop coughing up the ball against a Tampa Bay team that could not force turnovers all year last Sunday.

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Week 13 Player Prop Bets

Week 13 Player Prop Bets

We nailed it in Week 12, going 3-0 on our prop bets and absolutely murdering any and all Christian McCaffrey prop bets. Let’s look to build on our positive record in Week 13….

Aaron Jones OVER 80 Rushing Yards

The Packers host the Cardinals as 14-point favorites this week, a situation we can benefit from on a prop perspective. This game sets up perfectly for RB  Aaron Jones, who has finally become the Packers workhorse after the Packers odd and agonizing love affair with Jamaal Williams seems to have ended.

The Packers defense has been much better this season at home, allowing just 18.8 points per game at Lambeau. There is also expected to be winds close to 20 MPH, comfortably higher than the 15 MPH threshold that’s known to affect quarterbacks’ yards per attempt and completion percentage. This sets up as a horrible spot for the Cardinals offense, meaning the Packers will be able to run in neutral or positive game script for longer than normal. I like Jones to see a single-game, season-high in touches this week. With those touches, he should be able to churn out over 100 yards against the Cardinals who are allowing the most rushing yards per game and 4.64 yards per carry.

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Thanksgiving NFL Betting Preview

Thanksgiving NFL Betting Preview

Thanksgiving has become less about celebrating the historically romanticized feast between Pilgrims and Native Americans and more about family, friends, food, and football. Really, nothing is more American than sitting around, gorging down food, and watching football with your family and friends. Whether you want to make watching the games more exciting or win some sweet cash for the Holidays, I have a mixture of totals, prop bets, and sides for you to bet.

Chicago -3 @ Detroit (44)
There has been a lot of movement on both the total and spread in this one due to Mitchell Trubisky’s shoulder injury. Multiple sources have said it’s unlikely he will play against the Lions, thrusting Chase Daniel into the starting spot. Without this being fully confirmed, it moved the spread from 4.5-to-3 and the total from 46.5-to-44. Once Daniel is confirmed as the starter, the line should move at least another point in Detroit’s direction as I doubt sportsbooks only view Trubisky as 1.5 points more important than Daniel. Per usual the public is backing the over with 61 percent of the tickets going that way but only 39 percent of the money (Action Network).

So, if you want to bet the under or the Lions side, now would be the time. If you want some Bears-Over action wait until about an hour after the news is confirmed. If for some reason Trubisky does play, look to bet some rushing props for him because his shoulder won’t be 100 percent and he will likely have to rely on scrambling even more than usual.

The Bears are in an interesting spot situationally here, coming off a Sunday Night game and now playing the Thursday morning Thanksgiving game on the road. It may not sound like much, but it makes a short week even harder.

It’s pretty tough to handicap a game when the most important position is being played by an unknown variable like Chase Daniel. He only has 78 career regular season passing attempts (65 percent completion rate, 1/1 TD/INT ratio) and was highly volatile during the preseason this year (67 percent completion rate, 5/3 TD/INT ratio). Daniel spent three years in Kansas City when Matt Nagy was his quarterbacks’ coach and knows his system well.

If Daniel is at his best, he could certainly take advantage of Detroit’s abysmal 32nd ranked pass defense in terms of success rate allowed. I’m not sure if Daniel is good enough to truly exploit this matchup though, leaving me off all Bears’ player props unless Trubisky does start, in which case a prop around 25 rushing yards would catch my interest.

Compared to their offensive heyday starting in Week 2 where they scored 24+ points in five straight games, the Lions are asleep at the wheel scoring 22-or-less in each of the past four. Kerryon Johnson has already been announced out and Marvin Jones isn’t expected to play. This leaves Kenny Golladay as their primary offensive weapon. Using our injury tool, on snaps Marvin Jones hasn’t played this year Golladay has seen 32 percent of the targets go his way, translating to 14 targets last week. He lines up everywhere in the offense (33 percent at LWR, 40 percent at RWR, 26.2 percent slot) and should be penciled in for another massive target share as their only talented wideout.

Theo Riddick is the only other player on Detroit’s offense I would consider putting money on. Since Golden Tate was traded, Riddick has seen an average of 7.3 targets and 6 receptions per game. You should be able to find a prop floated around 4.5 receptions, something he should be able to hit fairly easily.

Bets:

UNDER 44

Kenny Golladay Over 6 receptions

Theo Riddick Over 4.5 receptions

Washington @ Dallas -7 (41)

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Betting guide for Week 12 in NFL

Betting guide for Week 12 in NFL

2018 record: 33-21-1 (61 percent)

It’s road dog week on The Quant Edge NFL. Time to buckle up.

Washington Redskins +8 @ Dallas Cowboys
Yes, Colt McCoy is about to start a real life NFL game in 2018. Let me try to sell you on it.

First, what you need to understand is that McCoy has never been much of an interception thrower. Remember, you should throw out the majority of rookie quarterback seasons, as they generally are getting used to the NFL game. Read this piece about how the 2018 first-round picks are struggling but totally fine long-term. Since McCoy’s rookie NFL season, the former Texas Longhorn has thrown 632 passes for just 14 interceptions (2.2 percent of throws.)

To put 2.2 percent into perspective, Ben Roethlisberger is at 2.4 percent in 2018, Andrew Luck is at 2.2 percent, Patrick Mahomes is at 2.0 percent and Tom Brady is at 1.9 percent. At the rate that McCoy has thrown interceptions, it’s not really any sort of cause for concern. On the relative scale of NFL backups, that’s about all you can ask for.

I’m not here to tell you McCoy is going to go on some sort of Jimmy Garoppolo run to end the season; I’m just saying that McCoy is a pretty safe passer, even if he doesn’t eat up a ton of yards on a per pass basis. In that way, he shouldn’t be that much different than Alex Smith.

Now let’s take a look at how each team has played this year:

Washington pass offense: 340 passes for 2,100 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions (AY/A: 6.2)
Dallas pass offense: 306 passes for 1,937 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions (AY/A: 6.2)
Well, if Dallas has a massive edge in this game…it doesn’t seem to be from passing the ball:

Washington pass defense: 363 passes for 2,612 yards, 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions (AY/A: 6.2)
Dallas pass defense: 328 passes for 2,361 yards, 13 touchdowns and four interceptions (AY/A 6.9)
Well, damn, Dallas doesn’t really have the edge defensively, either.

In the end, this seems like a very overreactionary line to Washington losing Alex Smith, who has been a pretty dink and dunk safe passer this year, a brand Colt McCoy has embraced since his rookie season. Dallas should probably have a slight edge here, but not an eight-point handicap going into the game. This is a similar spot to when Tennessee played Dallas on Monday Night Football a few weeks ago, when I wrote this:

“If they’re about an even split… why is Dallas a near touchdown favorite against an equal team? This could be your classic Cowboys overreaction spot after winning three straight home games. Since AT&T Stadium opened, Dallas is 30-44-1 ATS (covering just 41 percent of the time) at home with an even worse record of 8-15 (covering 35 percent of the time) when they’re favorites of 6.5 points or more.”

They’re at 8-16 now. We’re all McCoy fans on Thanksgiving.

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Noonan’s Week 11 totals

Noonan’s Week 11 totals

Coming off of a 3-3 Week 10 with totals, we’re 10 games above .500 here this season, a profitable pace that we’re going to continue as the season enters the final six weeks.

This is the last of the bye weeks, so we’ll have more options moving forward, but I have a five-pack of games for you this week. Let’s dig in.

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons – Over 48
This is a get-right spot for the Falcons, heading home after back-to-back road games in Washington D.C. and Cleveland. There’s a ton of recency bias in this line, and it’s not factoring in how well the Falcons play, and in particular, score, at home.

Atlanta has gone over their team total in four of their five home games this season, and Matt Ryan is matching his 2016 MVP performance, only he’s throwing for 30 more yards per game than he did that season. He has a 21:3 TD to interception ratio on the season, and the emergence of Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper have helped diversify the overall passing attack of the offense. Of course, Julio Jones is still the primary option here, with four straight games of double-digit targets and touchdowns in back-to-back games on the road. The Cowboys feature an exciting, young defense, but cornerback Byron Jones has yet to shadow this season, so we’re safe to assume Atlanta will scheme Julio away from him as much as possible.

On the other side, the Cowboys face one of the friendliest defenses in the league in terms of scoring. Overall, Atlanta is 32nd in defensive DVOA and rank among the bottom three in yards per drive, points per drive, and touchdowns per drive on the season. The acquisition of Amari Cooper has been a shot in the arm for Dallas’ offense, and Cooper’s 18 targets with the Cowboys are twice as many as the next closest wide receiver since he was acquired. They’ll also have no problem moving the ball on the ground and through the air, with Ezekiel Elliott, as the Falcons struggles against running backs is well documented.

I like the Falcons to cover this line, but in chasing, Dallas will do enough to push this game over the total.

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