Betting

NBA Player Props 2/17 – All Star Game

NBA Player Props 2/17 – All Star Game

The All-Star Game is upon us and I couldn’t be more excited. This has been one of the more entertaining All-Star Weekends in recent history for me. Ben Simmons and Kyle Kuzma dominated the Rising Stars game with 28 and 25 points respectively and had me on the edge of my seat for the entirety of the game. Last night in the skills portion of our weekend, Jayson Tatum took down the skills competition on a half-court shot to beat the otherwise dominant Trae Young.

Hamidou Diallo won the dunk contest fairly easily (if were being completely honest) after jumping over my guy Shaq and paying homage to the great Vince Carter with his own impression of one of the classic dunks in recent history. And finally… my man Joe Harris beat the Greatest Shooter Ever in a 3PT Shootout that came down to the very end. All in all, I’m excited for the new things Adam Silver and the NBA try to implement for future All-Star Weekend Activities.

The Player Props are taken from FanDuel and DraftKings. If you have any questions about the changing lines, please shoot me over some questions at @xavierjwarner on Twitter and I’ll help you accordingly. 

Pick History – 5 for 10 (50%)

Team Lebron
LeBron James O 22.5 PTS -110

LeBron’s game is tailored made for this type of exhibition. When the best players on the planet surround him, he is so much more dangerous as his elite basketball knowledge and instincts lead him to rack up a ridiculous amount of buckets in a glorified showcase game. LeBron hitting the over here is elementary, my dear (I’m sorry, I had to) and I’m riding with the King with a squad full of players he hand selected.

Read More
UFC on ESPN 1 | N’Gannou vs Velasquez DraftKings Breakdown  

UFC on ESPN 1 | N’Gannou vs Velasquez DraftKings Breakdown  

I am finding this UFC card extremely difficult. There is already lots of line value so keep an eye out for how close some of these lines get. Early line value exposes the chalk plays of the card. Chalk plays will be highly owned in both tournaments and cash games.

The Main Event: Cain Velasquez $9K vs Francis N’Gannou $7.2K

I have been back and forth on this fight all week. I suggest playing both guys in GPPs and the cash stack is safe if you choose to play it. On the TQE MMA Podcast, Tyler said he would be speaking to a friend of his who has first-hand knowledge of Cain’s camp. The simple message is that Cain has been training very well and the video people have been passing around saying Cain looks slow was taped over a year ago.

My view on this fight is that Cain is going to pressure forward and initiate the exchanges, which is what Francis N’Gannou needs. I would like to see Francis take a page out of James Vick’s book and stay on the outside and counterstrike when Cain closes the distance. Cain’s pace is going to get the best of N’Gannou as the fight moves along. Cain is now 36 years old and hasn’t fought in 30 months so that pace may have an effect on him also.

I decided to get off the fence and take a stand, I am picking Francis N’Gannou by first-round KO/TKO. Francis will be in 16 of my 20 GPP lineups.

Read More
NBA Player Props 2/14

NBA Player Props 2/14

Welcome to my first article for TQE. I am truly excited for this opportunity to contribute valuable and concise information to an already wonderful website. My name is Xavier Warner and I am a Travel Baseball Coach currently residing in New Jersey and I have been watching basketball since I can remember. I’ve always had an eye for basketball and recently, I have found a way to channel that eye to help myself and others be as profitable as possible. I’ll save all the personal things for another time and get straight to business… because well, I know why you are all here. I’m going to be doing everything in my power, throughout the rest of the NBA season, to provide in-depth reasoning and statistical analysis to ultimately help you crush those frustrating player props each and every night.

The Player Props are taken from FanDuel and DraftKings. If you have any questions about the changing lines, please shoot me over some questions at @xavierjwarner on Twitter and I’ll help you accordingly. 
Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic
Kemba Walker O 36.5 PTS+REB+AST -106

Kemba has been on a tear recently, especially in his last 5 games, where he has hit over the 36.5 number we are given here five out of five times:

34/9/3 @ Indiana Pacers – 1st in Opponents PPG
37/1/7 @ Atlanta Hawks – 30th in Opponents PPG
30/11/6 @ Dallas Mavericks – 11th in Opponents PPG
32/5/9 @ Los Angeles Clippers – 24th in Opponents PPG
37/6/10 @ Chicago Bulls – 17th in Opponents PPG
Those numbers are nothing to scoff at and show the consistency of Kemba as one of the elite ball-dominant scorers we have in this league. Kemba takes care of business against the best defensive team (in terms of OPPG) and also the worst. Kemba stays hot tonight and gets over this number (36.5) against an Orlando team that ranks eighth in OPPG this season.

Read More
UFC 234 | Whittaker vs Gastelum DraftKings Breakdown  

UFC 234 | Whittaker vs Gastelum DraftKings Breakdown  

The midrange this week is tricky. We have a lot of heavy favorites this week and some of the DK prices are suppressed as a result. I only see four UFC fights in which the underdog has a clear path to victory. But again, this is MMA so anything can happen!

The Main Event: Robert Whittaker $8.9K vs Kelvin Gastelum $7.3K

I expect this fight to be a technical chess match on the feet. In cash games, I really like this stack but wouldn’t be surprised if it scores on the lower side. I still think it’s worth playing to be safe and I’m not a huge fan of other low-priced fighters. If this fight goes the distance, I see Whittaker winning enough rounds to retain his title. Gastelum is a patient counter striker waiting with that big left hand ready to wobble his opponent. Whittaker doesn’t strike with the highest volume so those opportunities will be few and far between. Both guys are GPP viable as they have knockout ability. I expect Whittaker to use his kicking game from distance early and attack the lead right foot of Kelvin Gastelum.

Read More
Super Bowl Preview | When the Rams have the Ball

Super Bowl Preview | When the Rams have the Ball

This Super Bowl preview includes a lot of in-depth statistics, analytics and attempts to make the game more predictable. I packed it with a ton of information that can help you form an opinion about how this game could play out. It’ll be broken up into two sections with each part analyzing one offense and defense. If you missed it, you can find part one here.

Opening Spread/Total: Pick/58

Current Spread/Total: Patriots -2.5/56.5

Patriots Implied Team Total: 29.5

Rams Implied Team Total: 27

 

When the Rams have the Ball

Despite dodging a questionable no-call in the conference championship, the Rams are one of the league’s best teams. Their offense ranks 2nd in offensive efficiency, 1st in rushing success rate (58%) and 8th in passing success rate (50%). They were also one of the league’s most explosive offenses, ranking 11th in explosive run rate (14%) and 2nd in explosive pass rate (11%).

Like the Patriots offense, a lot of the Rams’ success was due to their offensive line. They rank No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards, No. 2 in stuffed yards, No. 1 in second level yards, and No. 6 in adjusted sack rate allowed. Their offensive line was consistently among the leagues’ best in most metrics and helped the offense remain efficient. The battle in the trenches is one of the key pieces of this matchup we have to look at.

In all honesty, If the Patriots can pressure QB Jared Goff as frequently as they pressured Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship game (50%), this game is over before it starts. In part one we discussed Brady’s immense splits with a clean pocket and under pressure. Unfortunately for the Rams, Jared Goff’s splits are worse. When Goff has a clean pocket he ranks 5th in passer rating (114.1) and 16th in completion percentage (72.1%). Under pressure, he turns into a cupcake with the 35th ranked completion percentage (43.4 percent) and 29th ranked passer rating (58.2.).

Read More
Championship Player Prop Bets

Championship Player Prop Bets

Last week, Damien Williams rushing prop nearly hit three times the line that was set. The receiving prop we listed in this column fell just a few yards short and Williams actually dropped a 10-yard pass. With the Chiefs controlling the game, Williams became less involved in the passing game and we ended up winning just one of his prop bets despite the handicap being largely correct. This slate is an interesting one with two rematches and both games combining for 163 points. It’s highly unlikely we see that much scoring this time around but it’s certainly possible.

Travis Kelce Under 85 receiving yards

Kelce is a player I generally don’t like to bet against because of his talent but In this situation, we have a three-game sample size of Bill Belichick scheming to stop Kelce successfully. In their past three meetings, Kelce has lines of  5/61/0 >  5/40/0 > 6/23/0.

The major caveat is that while Kelce was kept under wraps, Tyreek Hill has exploited them for 100+ yards in every contest. It’s conceivable that the Patriots shift their gameplan towards stopping him and conceding more catches to Kelce. Guessing when and how Bill Belichick is going to change his scheme is extremely tough and probably something we should avoid.

The Chiefs are also three-point favorites, which means it’s unlikely they fall into the significant negative game script. This means they will run and throw at a normal amount and are unlikely to inflate anyone’s numbers in garbage time. Trust Belichick and take the under with confidence.

Read More
Betting Guide for Divisional Round Playoffs in NFL

Betting Guide for Divisional Round Playoffs in NFL

2018 Record ATS: 52-35-3 (59 percent)

After going 49-33-3 in the NFL regular season, we’re 3-2 against the spread in the postseason so far. Here’s a recap of our playoff efforts:

The Los Angeles Chargers covered against the Baltimore Ravens in the wild-card round pretty convincingly.
The Seattle Seahawks covered against the Dallas Cowboys in part because their kicker was hurt and they had to go for two on a +2.5 line.
The Chicago Bears crushed our hearts by going for a field goal to end the game (which led to a double doink.)
The Los Angeles Chargers let us down quickly against the New England Patriots.
A two-team, six-point tease with the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints (after a comeback) hit.
Using combined regular season and postseason passing efficiency averages, we can create a power ranking of passing efficiency for both sides of the ball for every NFL team. Remember, passing numbers are much more stable than rushing numbers game-to-game. Using these numbers, based on what we know after the divisional round games, these games would have been considered upsets from a power ranking standpoint: the Chicago Bears missing a kick against the Philadelphia Eagles and the Seattle Seahawks losing by two after #EstablishingTheRun at a third of the efficiency that their passing game had.

Read More
Divisional Round NFL Player Prop Bets

Divisional Round NFL Player Prop Bets

After a relatively dull 2-2 wildcard round, I’m ready to divvy up some NFL player props for what should be the season’s best weekend of football!

Damien Williams Over 49.5 Rushing Yards AND 29.5 Receiving Yards

I hope the number is the same as when I posted in the TQE chat about betting these. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, “hopes are not high” that RB Spencer Ware will play today. This means it is wheels up for Damien Williams who will be the Chiefs workhorse back. These props are still set as if Spencer Ware will be playing at full health. With the highest total on the slate, we can expect both teams to go back and forth. Not to mention the Colts defense is one of the most overrated in the league due to their strength of schedule.

Earlier in the week I tweeted out, “The Colts defense has played just one team in the top-10 of offensive efficiency. That was against the #Patriots (No. 5 in O efficiency). In that game they allowed 38 points, Tom Brady to complete 34-of-44 (77.3%) passes, and Sony Michel to run for 98 yards on 5.4 YPC.”

The Chiefs offense will present a stark difference from the Colts standard opponents and ranks No. 1 in offensive efficiency.

Beyond the likely offensive explosion from the Chiefs, the Colts have allowed the most targets to running backs this season (140) and second most receptions (110). They also rank in the 0th percentile of weighted opportunity allowed to running backs, the ninth percentile of targets per game, and 25th percentile of receiving yards per game allowed.

There is also expected to be a bit of snow during the game, which could shift the Chiefs to a run-heavier gameplan. The Colts haven’t been bad against the run but I expect volume to help him easily push over 50 rushing yards. The Colts have still allowed 84.56 yards per game to opposing backs. With the props set too low in a strong spot for Williams, he should be able to smash both.

Read More
Betting Guide for Divisional Round Playoffs in NFL

Betting Guide for Divisional Round Playoffs in NFL

2018 Record ATS: 51-34-3 (60 percent)

In the regular season, I gave you (usually) five plays a week. During the NFL playoffs, I’ll be breaking down every game on a weekly basis…telling you what to play and what to punt.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
Just like last week, the first game of the divisional slate is going to be a non-play for us.

Based on ANY/A Value, the first-ranked Kansas City Chiefs will be hosting the eighth-ranked Indianapolis Colts on Saturday afternoon. The Colts have been hotter as of lately, especially after quarterback Andrew Luck’s slow start to the season, so that number might actually be too low considering the circumstances.

Overall, this line seems right. If it dips below four, take Kansas City. If it goes above 7.5, take Indianapolis. As of right now, this is simply a non-play for us, but we do have opinions on the other games.

Read More
1 2 8

Compare