Week 13 wasnâ€™t kind to me in the player prop department and most notably betting on Aaron Jones. After playing snap rates of 74 > 90 > 75 percent in consecutive weeks, Jones proceeded to play just 51 percent of the snaps in Week 13, his lowest since Week 8. This game as a whole was an outlier, as the Packers lost outright as 14-point favorites and The Action Network even labeled it the biggest upset in NFL history. With the weekly bad beat section out of the way, onto Week 14.
Andrew Luck Over 292.5 Passing Yards and Deshaun Watson Over 244.5 Passing Yards
This game isnâ€™t getting enough hype this week and Iâ€™m not really sure why. Both teams combined for 71 points in their last meeting with the Texans beating the Colts 37-34. I donâ€™t think much is going to be different this time around. Â Both teams have the Nos. 1 and 2 easiest strength of schedule of opposing offenses faced and haven’t been good otherwise.
There’s a lot of buzz around the Texans defense but in reality, they have been stifling poor teams. We canâ€™t fault a team for having a poor schedule, but we can look at how they performed against teams with similar efficiencies. Â They have played against the easiest schedule of passing offense this season, only playing against two that rank inside of the top-10 (Colts and Patriots), but it is actually even worse than it looks. The list of opposing offenses and QBs they played since their Week 4 bout with the Colts is laughable.
Week 5: Dak Prescott (Before Cowboys figured out how to play offense)
Week 6 (Home): Nathan Peterman/Josh Allen
Week 7: Blake Bortles
Week 8 (Home): Brock Osweiler
Week 9: Case Keenum
Week 11: Alex Smith/Colt McCoy
Week 12 (Home): Marcus Mariota
Week 13 (Home): Baker Mayfield
If you didnâ€™t even get the smallest bit nauseous reading that list Iâ€™m judging you. It would be really concerning if the Texans defense didnâ€™t play well against this list of bottom-dwelling signal-callers.
Luck should re-expose the Texans defense he lit up for 464 yards last time around. Also, when writing this there is optimism TY Hilton will suit up in his dream spot against the team he bi-annually wrecks.
The Colts defense has been in a similar situation and Rotoworldâ€™s Nick Mensio pointed this out on Twitter:
Watsonâ€™s attempts have been severely limited in those games, as the Texans have opted for a run-heavy approach and were never forced to air the ball out. This game should end up as the opposite with both teams moving up and down the field with ease.
With a game total at 50 and both squads likely to expose the opposing teamâ€™s overrated defense this game sets up extremely well for both passers to smash their passing props.