If you are new to TQE, here is a brief description of what each stat means. If you aren’t new, scroll down to the wild card Round RB matrix!
Adjusted line yards
These are the yards the O-line is responsible for producing. For example, if a running back gets tackled for a loss, most of the time this is because the line did not block the defenders well enough. On the other side, if a running back has a five-yard rush, this is likely due to solid line play and a hole being created. This is the base of a running game.
These are rushes that occur on third or fourth down with two yards or less to reach a first down. It also includes rushes inside the two-yard line at the goal line. This metric isn’t weighted as heavily for me, but still worth noting.
These are rushes that go for no gain or tackles for loss. This metric is more useful in assessing cash plays. As the running back continuously picks up yards, he should end up with a solid yardage total if the volume is there.
However, our ceiling (or tournament) metrics are the next two.
Second level yards
These take into consideration runs that go for five-to-10 yards. This is where the running back gets to the LBs and safeties. We can use this to predict 100-yard games. A running back that is continuously getting to the second level, is going to be more likely to pick up that 100-yard rushing bonus.
Open field yards
These factor in runs that go for 11+ yards. This is where your heaviest weighted factor for predicting a ceiling game as the bigger plays lead to higher yardage totals and the longer TD runs.
To summarize, we want to weigh adjusted line yards, second level yards and open field yards the heaviest.
Wild Card Weekend
Below is the matchup matrix for Wild Card weekend. I have highlighted in blue the offenses that rank in the top 10 in their metrics, as well as the defenses that rank in the bottom 10 in their metrics. The RBs that are facing the defenses on the right are listed in the middle.
The highlighted RBs are the ones who I think have the best matchup on paper. This is not factoring in salary, snap counts or anything of that nature. This is solely a matchup chart.
If you are not playing Zeke this weekend, please send me head-to-heads. That is all.
I wish Edwards and Dixon weren’t eating into each other’s production. This is a good spot for them, but you can’t trust a split workload. Over the last three weeks, Edwards’ carries have dropped from 19 to 14 to 12.
Chris Carson gets a sneaky decent matchup here and should see the second highest volume at the position behind only Zeke. This isn’t a great matchup, but it’s the second best pure rushing matchup on the board this weekend. I don’t hate taking a shot on him in tournaments.
Every other RB is in a bad rushing matchup, so I would target the pass catchers from the rest of these offenses (Hines and Cohen are my favorites).
Matt Dickason has been playing DFS NFL, MLB and NBA for 3 years now. I have been in season long football leagues since the age of 10, so football has always been a passion of mine. Outside of fantasy sports, I played baseball for 19 years including college and eventually Semi-Pro. MLB and NFL are my two strongest sports when it comes to betting and DFS.