Weekend MLB DFS Primer – Rays shine through – The Quant Edge

Weekend MLB DFS Primer – Rays shine through – The Quant Edge

The final weekend of MLB DFS before the All-Star break is upon us. But, before we take a deep breath on the season, we have three days left to cash in on some opportunities. The offense is going to come from some unlikely sources this weekend, and there are some big-time arms who will have more MLB DFS tournament appeal than usual considering they’ve had first-half struggles.

It’s time officially end the first half on the MLB season, with a bang, so let’s dive into today’s Weekend MLB DFS Primer!

PITCHING APPROACH

FRIDAY 7/5: Brandon McKay has his work cut out for him against a stacked Yankees lineup, but the Yanks have a 22.3% K rate against lefties and at home. McKay has HUGE tournament appeal at $7.1 FD/$8K DK. With some big-name aces on the slate, you have multiple cash game options.

In MLB DFS cash games, it would seem like fading Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander for Zack Greinke at home versus Colorado would be wise. Greinke is roughly $1K less than the big three on both sites and has been a walking quality start most of the year. However, he’s a trap tonight. Colorado has a .351 wOBA versus RHP.

Instead, I would rank Jacob deGrom as the best return on investment at home. Yes, the Mets bullpen has been shaky, but the Phillies are hitting just .200 versus deGrom this year. Kershaw is my least favorite based on his lower than usual K/9 rate this season.

Eduardo Rodriguez at $8.1K FD/$8.7K DK has a great matchup against the Tigers. Despite this being a road start, E-Rod should be a lock considering the Tigers epic struggles versus LHP, making him a great value on both sites. Dakota Hudson is a nice secondary DK arm to pair with the top dogs.

SATURDAY 7/6: It will be Max Scherzer or bust for most folks in the early slate, but I will make a case for Blake Snell in tournaments. After a terrible stretch of luck, he finally bounced back in his last outing with 12 Ks and all his deep stats suggest he’s not far off from his pace of last year (in fact better in some categories).

If you can’t bring yourself to start him versus the Yankees, then Shane Bieber against the Reds is the perfect pivot off Scherzer. The 7 pm slate is dicey. It has Gerrit Cole and Lucas Giolito facing off against two arms you can make a case for in tournaments – Andrew Heaney and Jon Lester.

Then there’s Noah Syndergaard making his second start off the IL. Giolito seems like the best ROI, but Syndergaard’s ownership will be lower, making him a more appealing tournament play. Heaney is a multi-entry tournament play as well. In the late slate, Chris Paddack is a decent contrarian play against the Dodgers, but Madison Bumgarner is the far better return on investment at home where his path to the win is far easier against Miles Mikolas. Jon Gray has actually been more effective in Coors than away this year, but the Ks should still be there against Robbie “5 2/3” Ray.

SUNDAY 7/7: Make it a clean sweep this weekend for the Rays! Charlie Morton has been dominant this year and let’s face it, James Paxton has been inconsistent. Give me Morton for the Tampa Trifecta this weekend! Aaron Nola has been on a tear lately after a rocky early 2019. The Mets will be no match for him. Lock him up in cash and tournaments alike. David Price will be chalky, but another strong play against the Tigers, who I pointed out early can’t hit LHP.

Trevor Bauer should also deliver on his high price against Cincy in the NL park. There are a lot of ways to “get cute” Sunday with German Marquez on the road, Mike Minor on a bounce back or Ross Stripling against the Padres at home. However, I would stick to the aforementioned top guys. As for low-cost secondary arms on DK to pair with the big boys: Dallas Keuchel, Joe Musgrove and Jose Urquidy all at home fit the bill and allow you to pay up elsewhere. The guys in the mid-range are pitfalls to avoid. Pay-lines will be too high with the other aces in better matchups.

OFFENSIVE APPROACH

The A’s against the LHP of the Mariners will bear fruit. Also, as crazy as it sounds, you should take advantage of underpriced Giants as lineup builders all weekend. There will be plenty of offense in Toronto, and you can go in on Orioles as well as Jays. J.D. Martinez will lead the Red Sox charge against the Tigers, so pay the premium for him.

Fade the Reds, who will have their hands full with Bauer and Bieber, but pay up Sunday for the Astros stack against the Angels. On Saturday, take a look at James McCann against Jon Lester. McCann has 1.004 OPS against LHP and is in the middle of that White Sox order. He’s a UT spot gold on FanDuel.

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