The TQE player prop train kept rolling in Week 8 with another winning record.
It would have been the second-straight perfect week except for the Vegas-wrecking debacle that was the Rams-Packers game. We had bet the over on Aaron Rodgers at 300 passing yards. He was at 286 passing yards with a little over two minutes remaining and set to get the ball back. I was excited because I knew all he had to do was get the ball, fire off two completions, and we would win the prop. That obviously didn’t happen as Ty Montgomery decided, “imma do me” and took the ball out of the end zone despite teammates and coaches telling him to kneel it. Regardless of that ridiculously egocentric decision, the tilt got worse.
The Rams got the ball back and looked like they could score! This would give the ball back to the Packers with a minute left and give Rodgers a great chance to nail his prop! As we all know, instead of scoring Gurley stopped running and got tackled in bounds, single-handedly ruining the over, spread, prop bets, fantasy games, etc all at the same time. Somehow, my heart had been shattered twice within the span of five minutes. For those who tail my props and were watching that sequence of events unfold, I feel your pain.
Anyways, we are still crushing it and asking the prop gods for another perfect week was probably getting greedy anyways. Onto Week 9…
Cooper Kupp OVER 5.5 Receptions: This is probably my favorite prop of the week as Kupp is in a blow-up spot. Let’s get the injury concerns out of the way first. Head coach Sean McVay said that Kupp could have played last week. He has now practiced all week and was removed from the Week 9 injury report on Friday.
This sets up as an ideal game environment for Kupp to thrive against the Saints pass-funnel defense (29th pass DVOA vs second in run DVOA) with the highest opening Vegas total ever recorded (60). While McVay may not be as analytically focused, he is certainly sharp enough to know that attacking the Saints through the air is the optimal way to go. This means that Goff will likely pass at a slightly higher rate, giving Kupp a better chance to be targeted more frequently.
Individually, Kupp figures to line up against burnable slot-corner P.J. Williams, who has allowed a 132.9 passer rating, including 22 of 30 (73 percent) targets to be caught by opposing wideouts. With Goff potentially attempting the most passes this season and Kupp drawing the best matchup, this is a prime eruption spot. I expect him to see 10-12 targets and record 8-9 catches. Depending on your outlook of the game, taking Jared Goff over 24.5 completions is another prop I’m interested in.