Week 16 ended up being one of our most profitable weeks of the NFL season, as I went 5-1 in this column. Week 17 is a tricky one as many teams are either out of the playoff race or unable to alter their playoff position. This makes for differing motivations among teams, which impacts players workloads and snap shares. While it sounds difficult, as long as you put in the time to decipher the information you could have a significant edge.
Kenny Golladay Over 5.5 Receptions
Despite the Lions-Packers game having no implications on the playoffs, starters are still expected to see plenty of run. With starters expected to play the full game, we can focus in on one player in particular, Kenny Golladay. The Action Networkâ€™s Matthew Freedman tweeted an interesting tidbit about Golladayâ€™s previous matchups and target share.
Explaining more about what he means when he says â€śThis week: The Packers,â€ť their secondary hasnâ€™t been very stout. Using our Head-to-head tool, we can see they are allowing a 26 percent target share to opposing WR1s, good for the 17th percentile. This coincides perfectly with Golladayâ€™s massive target share, as the Lions only legitimate receiving option. With an easier matchup against a mediocre secondary, Golladay should have no problem approaching 10 targets and hauling in seven-plus receptions.