We nailed it in Week 12, going 3-0 on our prop bets and absolutely murdering any and all Christian McCaffrey prop bets. Let’s look to build on our positive record in Week 13….
Aaron Jones OVER 80 Rushing Yards
The Packers host the Cardinals as 14-point favorites this week, a situation we can benefit from on a prop perspective. This game sets up perfectly for RB Aaron Jones, who has finally become the Packers workhorse after the Packers odd and agonizing love affair with Jamaal Williams seems to have ended.
The Packers defense has been much better this season at home, allowing just 18.8 points per game at Lambeau. There is also expected to be winds close to 20 MPH, comfortably higher than the 15 MPH threshold that’s known to affect quarterbacks’ yards per attempt and completion percentage. This sets up as a horrible spot for the Cardinals offense, meaning the Packers will be able to run in neutral or positive game script for longer than normal. I like Jones to see a single-game, season-high in touches this week. With those touches, he should be able to churn out over 100 yards against the Cardinals who are allowing the most rushing yards per game and 4.64 yards per carry.
Jameis Winston OVER 302 passing yards and Chris Godwin OVER 60 Receiving Yards
The Buccaneers are in a great spot against the Panthers overrates secondary. I tweeted this earlier this week:
The #Panthers D has played four teams that rank inside the top 10 in passing efficiency:
- WK 2 vs ATL: 23-of-28 (82%), 272 yards, 2 TDs
- WK 9 vs TB: 24-of-41 (58.8%), 219 yards, 4 TDs
- WK 10 vs PIT: 23-of-27 (85%), 319 yards, 5 TDs
- WK 12 vs SEA: 22-of-31 (71%), 322 yards, 2 TDs”
The Panthers have largely feasted and bolstered their pass-defense stats against weak quarterbacks.
Despite switching between Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick frequently this season, the Bucs still rank 10th in overall passing efficiency. OC Todd Monken has led a deep-passing driven attack that leads the league in air yards by over 1000 yards. Yes, you read that right, the next closest team in air yards is over 1,000 yards behind (Ben Gretch @YardsPerGretch). Winston has routinely thrown for over 300 yards this year, hitting that mark in all but one of his starts.
With DeSean Jackson out, Chris Godwin will see a massive increase in snaps and targets. Both he and Jackson were eating into each other’s snaps as outside receivers prior to his injury. Using our injury tool, Ryan Noonan noted the quantified effect of Jackson’s absence. Godwin sees nearly a 17 percent increase in target percentage and actually has seen a higher target share than Mike Evans.
Godwin and Winston should both have one of their best games this season as a home-underdog against an overrated secondary.
Theo Riddick Over 5.5 Receptions
Riddick has been benefitting from the Lions lack of viable pass-catchers and that figures to continue in this one. After trading Golden Tate to the Eagles, Riddick has assumed some of the underneath targets Tate used to have and averaging 6.25 receptions per game. In this one, he will benefit from the absence of RB Kerryon Johnson with no competition for targets at the running back position. This game sets up perfectly for a ton of usage with Riddick as they are 10-point underdogs to the Rams high-powered offense. The Rams also allow 7.27 targets per game to the running back position meaning Riddick should be able to see at least his normal target share.
In an expected negative game script, the Lions will be forced to throw at a higher rate than usual, feeding dump-off targets to Riddick. There is potential for a 10-catch outing as the Lions are completely devoid of pass-catching talent outside of Kenny Golladay and Riddick.
Week 12: 3-0
Connor Allen utilizes analytics and his knowledge of Football to leverage sportsbooks, fantasy leagues, and DFS. He is a Chicago native and you can find more of his work over at http://Rotoworld.com or on twitter @ConnorAllenNFL.