Thanksgiving has come and gone, leaving a smaller NFL slate than usual in Week 12. Add in both the Rams and Chiefs being on a bye and we have some fairly slim pickings this week from both a DFS and prop-betting standpoint. As a whole, this week isn’t expected to have as much scoring with only two games featuring a total above 50, Dolphins-Colts and 49ers-Buccaneers. Let’s dive in.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 105 Total Yards
If you haven’t been paying attention, the Seahawks are no longer a defense to fear. Over the past three weeks, Seattle is allowing 6.36 yards per carry and a 55 percent success rate allowed on first and second downs.
McCaffrey has also seen very balanced usage over the past four weeks with 18-22 touches in every contest, going over 105 combined yards in 3-of-4 outings. His usage could also increase this week with QB Cam Newton battling through both ankle and knee issues.
Our betting tool also likes the Panthers to win by 5.5 and score more than the projected total. Both factors help McCaffrey’s case.
CMC is a good bet to see a season-high in touches against a defense that hasn’t been playing well lately.
D.J. Moore OVER 60 Receiving Yards
With Devin Funchess out for the Panthers, it’s go-time for Moore. He has benefitted the past few games with Torrey Smith sidelined, but Funchess soaked up more targets than him. Moore will now be the team’s No. 1 wideout and assume close to a 20 percent target share. With Smith out of the lineup, we saw Moore’s target share jump from 4.9 percent to 18.6 percent, actually out targeting Funchess on a percentage basis.
Seattle is allowing over 80 yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers and has two large outside corners in Tre Flowers and Shaq Griffin. Both may struggle with Moore’s elite athleticism (88th percentile burst score and 94th percentile agility score (playerprofiler.com)) and sharp route-running.
As I already talked about in McCaffrey’s section, this game sets up extremely well for the Panthers according to our betting tool.
Zach Ertz OVER 6.5 Receptions
After dominating for the majority of the NFL season, Ertz turned in a dud last week with only three targets. He’s averaged 10.3 targets per game the rest of the season and figures to regress back to that mean this week against the Giants. Per Evan Silva’s Matchup article, “tight ends have caught 48 of 63 targets (76.2 percent) for 581 yards (9.2 YPA) over their last eight games” against the Giants. They aren’t good at guarding the position and now have to face one of the best in the game in Zach Ertz. Per our head-to-head tool, the Giants allow a 15 percent target share to the tight end position, good for the 31st percentile.
The addition of WR Golden Tate has somehow made the Eagles offense worse and their coaching staff believes they are trying too hard to work him in. They have decided to nix that plan this week and just line him up, meaning the offense will hopefully be a bit more functional. Ertz has surpassed this line in six of 10 games this season. He should see his normal target share and take advantage of a defense that struggles to match up with tight ends.
(Ertz’ stats on the left and the Giants defense vs the TE position on the right)
Week 11: 1-2
Connor Allen utilizes analytics and his knowledge of Football to leverage sportsbooks, fantasy leagues, and DFS. He is a Chicago native and you can find more of his work over at http://Rotoworld.com or on twitter @ConnorAllenNFL.