UFC on ESPN+ 5: Till vs Masvidal
Saturday, March 16th, 2019 1:00 pm EST
I changed up my format for this UFC card based on our weekly conversations in the discord chat. I will be focusing on my player pool for GPPs and cash. For a more detailed breakdown, please listen to our DraftKings podcast. If you have any suggestions, please let me know. I decided to keep the tiered outline and I added some bets at the end of the article.
Top Tier Leans ($9.4K-$8.7K):
- Nathaniel Wood $9.4K – Wood has a combination of striking and pressure that I don’t see his opponent Jose Quinones handling. My only concern in this fight is if Quinones is able to get an early takedown and slow the fight down. On the feet, Nathaniel Wood is going to pick Quinones apart and expect him to finish. I am on Wood for my cash games and like him for 45%+ ownership in GPPs.
- Dominick Reyes $9.3K – Reyes is a very well-rounded fighter. I knew he was good going into the OSP fight, but the way he handled OSP was very impressive. My concern with Reyes is he needs to be cautious in the first round because Oezdemir is dangerous with a full gas tank. The ideal situation is Reyes finishes Oezdemir late in Round 2. If it gets to Round 3, then Reyes probably finishes a gassed Volkan Oezdemir before the final bell. Reyes can be played in cash and I would play him 45%+ in GPPs.
- Darren Till $9.2K – Till is a huge guy for this weight class. He had a poor showing vs Tyron Woodley for his first UFC loss, but he gets to return home to take on Masvidal who lost twice in 2017 and did not fight in 2018. Till is in bounce-back mode and I expect him to do that in a big way. Masvidal is tough and experienced so this fight could very well go into the late rounds which concerns me about the DraftKings scoring. I would plug in Till at 30%+. Not a fan of the cash stack this week.
- Nad Narimani $8.9K – This is a fight to keep an eye on for possible odds movement. I am on Nad for cash games this week. He has the striking advantage and I didn’t think Grundy could use his wrestling effectively vs Nad. At this point, there is odds value on Mike Grundy which scares me in cash and probably puts Nad at 10% owned in GPPs. He is a contrarian GPP play if Grundy’s wrestling doesn’t check out.
- Arnold Allen $8.7K – Allen is a much better striker but we all know his opponent Jordan Rinaldi is looking to clinch and get this fight to the ground. Allen was down two rounds to Mads Burnell until he grabbed his neck late and got the submission finish. I want to see these guys at the faceoffs because I expect Rinaldi to be bigger on the scale. Allen will be another contrarian play but with better finishing ability. I expect him at 10-15% in GPPs and he’s not a cash consideration.
Mid-Tier Leans ($8.6K-$7.7K):
- Molly McCann $8.5K – This fight should stay on the feet and McCann is a heavy puncher. I expect her to win a striking based decision at worst. She has KO/TKO ability also. She is a great cash play and can be sprinkled in GPPs, about 25% owned.
- Dan Ige $8.2K vs Danny Henry $8K – Since these guys are in the same tier, I will talk about them together. I am on Ige here in cash and he’s a fine GPP play. He has the takedown upside and has good top control with GNP and submission ability. Henry got tagged in Round 1 vs Daniel Teymur, who gassed, and Henry took over, but that makes me think Ige will be able to get inside, close the distance and attack his hips for the takedowns. Henry has finishing ability, but I am looking at 30%+ for Ige and 10% for Henry.
- Ian Heinisch $7.8K – Heinisch is coming in on short notice once again. I think this guy is a different breed and his will to win is matched by his skill. Tom Breese has all the skills, but I question his will and I think Heinisch is just the guy to break him mentally. I am playing Heinisch in cash and 35%+ in GPPs. Breese is sub 10% in GPPs.
- Claudio Silva $8.6K – Silva just needs to find a way to get this fight to the ground once and he should lock in a submission. Silva has gas tank issues but so does Danny Roberts. This could get really sloppy in Round 3 if it lasts that long. I am playing Silva at 30%+ in GPPs and in cash. Roberts is the better striker so 15% at this price is fine.
- Gunnar Nelson $7.9K vs Leon Edwards $8.3K – I am fading Leon Edwards here, but you can play him if you want. I don’t see him finishing Nelson, so he won’t be paying off that price tag in a win. Nelson can get a finish with his submission game so I will play a few lineups with him in the 15%+ range.
Bottom Tier Leans ($7.6K-$6.8K):
- Mike Grundy $7.3K – The odds value is with Grundy. This is one of those fights that scares me because I don’t get the money coming in on Grundy. His skill lies in his takedowns and he does very little striking. He also doesn’t strike much on the ground when he’s on top. If you play odds value, then Grundy is your guy here.
- Saparbeg Safarov $7.2K – His opponent has fought cans and I’m on Safarov because I’m not sold on the ability of Negumereanu. Feel free to play Negumereanu in GPPs but he is an unproven commodity at this point. Safarov isn’t a great fighter but if he wins this fight it should be inside the distance if one of his big, wild punches lands. I will throw Safarov in 20%+ lineups.
- Jordan Rinaldi $7.5K – I am confident that Jordan Rinaldi will try to get takedowns early and work his submission grappling. He was very successful vs Jason Knight in his first fight at 145 pounds and seems very comfortable at this weight class. Rinaldi can score 70-85 points in a three-round decision if that is what you’re looking for in a win.
- John Phillips $7.4K – This fight should stay standing which is where Phillips wants it. Phillips can win this fight at any time with his power punching. Marshman missed weight so playing 10%+ on Phillips can pay big dividends with a finish.
- Claudio Silva -145
- Iam Heinisch +105
- Dan Ige -135
- Nad Narimani -130
- Darren Till -200
- Dominick Reyes -230
- Nathaniel Wood -250
- Molly McCann -200