UFC on ESPN+ 4: Lewis vs Dos Santos
Saturday, March 9th, 2019 5:00 pm EST
This UFC card doesn’t have a lot of fights to get excited about. Listen to the podcast for more detailed breakdowns.
The Main Event: Derek Lewis $6.8K vs Junior Dos Santos $9.4K
This is a fight I have no problem fading in cash. It’s highly volatile so I’d rather just stay away from the potential landmine in a cash game. In GPPs, this fight may score very well because of that volatility. Derek Lewis is a cash game punt who can pay off in a big way. Lewis has dangerous one-punch knockout power in his right hand. But the reality is that this fight depends on Junior Dos Santos, who has not looked good recently, but he does have the boxing to keep distance and pick his shots to earn a decision. If this fight goes to decision, I don’t want either fighter and it will keep these guys off the optimal lineup. Lewis is a GPP punt who opens up so many possibilities. I am not convinced Junior is going to stay out of harm’s way after his subpar performance vs Ivanov and getting touched up by Tuivasa. If Lewis lands some of those Tuivasa punches, this fight will be over.
The Co-Main Event: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos $8K vs Curtis Millender $8.2K
This is my favorite fight of the night and I expect some bonus money to be awarded in this fight. The GPP play is Zaleski, who has shown finishing ability. He is very dangerous on the feet and is creative with his strikes. Millender is a very good fighter and uses his length to point fight. He needs to show me he has that finishing ability to make him a GPP play and 12 times DraftKings scorer. Millender’s best path to victory is via decision, but I am going with Zaleski to win this fight. It may not finish so fade it in some of your GPP lines.
GPP Fight: Anthony Rocco Martin $9.2K vs Sergio Moraes $7K
I do think this fight is lined too far. I wish Martin was cheaper vs the veteran Moraes. With that being said, I do like Martin in this fight. Martin has the speed and power in his hands to hurt Moraes when he loaded up on those big sweeping hooks he likes to throw. Martin can beat Moraes to the punch inside. Both guys are legitimate GPP plays with Moraes being a GPP punt who can secure a submission with his BJJ black belt if the fight goes to the ground. I just don’t see Moraes securely a takedown. My pick is Martin to win and he has a shot to fight with his hand speed advantage.
GPP Fight: Tim Means $8.8K vs Niko Price $7.4K
Tim Means is the better fighter everywhere in this matchup. Niko Price has finishing ability and he has done it before vs quality opponents. This fight should be high volume striking and push a high-octane pace from the jump. I’m confidently on Means to hurt Price with his striking and close distance for the finish.
Sneaky GPP Fight: Grant Dawson $8.7K vs Julian Erosa $7.5K
Julian Erosa is a weird fighter to watch. When you watch him fight, you immediately see the skill he possesses in his striking. The problem Erosa has is his striking defense because his chin is up in the air wide open to be hit as he strikes with his hands down. On the other hand, Dawson is not the type of striker who looks to take your head off with strikes, instead opting for a more controlled approach in which he pressures his opponent and looks to gain top control to do damage on the ground. If Dawson has his way, he can score well on DraftKings with takedowns, advances and active ground strikes. On the feet, Erosa has the striking advantage, but I don’t know if he can keep this fight standing. Erosa has a distinct height advantage after watching weigh-ins, but Dawson’s strength advantage plays to his strengths.
Sneaky GPP Fight: Omari Akhmedov $8.5K vs Tim Boetsch $7.7K
I have gone back and forth on this fight. I am not overly impressed with either one of these guys. They are not athletic at all. If I knew Akhmedov would use his wrestling, I would like him in this spot. I am uncertain on this fight so my suggestion is to play both guys. Boetsch tends to use low leg kicks, which can beat up Akhmedov’s lead leg. Akhmedov throws heavy, wide strikes, which leads to him gassing out and being very vulnerable late in fights. Either guy can connect on a big punch at any time and hurt his opponent, leading to a finish. My gut feeling is they will feel each other out in Round 1 and go for a finish in Round 2 as the exchanges start to heat up.
Top Tier Leans ($9.4K-$8.7K):
- Alex Morono $9.1K – Tyler and I went back and forth on the podcast about this fight. I am playing Morono in this spot. I think Morono has the striking advantage vs Ottow and will be able to land on him. Tyler thinks Morono is going to get taken down and controlled. Jordan Mein did that to Morono, but I don’t think Ottow can execute the same plan. Mein was also getting touched up on the feet. Low volume GPP and cash for Morono.
- Jeff Hughes $9.3K – This fight is a rematch in which Hughes won via decision. Hughes is the better fighter and should win here but at his price tag, we need a finish. I’m not sure we’ll get it, but I do like Hughes to use his kickboxing early in rounds and secure a takedown in the second round and use some ground strikes so a finish is possible. Low volume GPP and cash.
Mid-Tier Leans ($8.6K-$7.7K):
- Blagoy Ivanov $8.4K – Blagoy has big power in his left hand. He makes for a great GPP play with that finishing ability. Rothwell is coming off a three-year layoff from a USADA suspension so we really don’t know what his skills will look like in this matchup. My gut tells me Ivanov is eager for a win and gets after Rothwell early in this fight. Play both guys in GPPs because Rothwell is a big guy with big power.
- Louis Smolka $8.3K – This can be a really fun fight. Both guys have been known to mix it up and scramble. On the feet, I expect Schnell to have a slight advantage, but Smolka wants to clinch and get this fight down to the mat. He is long and I think he’ll be able to work his ground game as long as he gets top control.
Bottom Tier Leans ($7.6K-$6.8K):
- Dan Moret $7.6K – I think this fight is very close and Alex White did not look good in his last fight so there is reason to play Moret at his underdog price. He can have success on the ground if he can get it there. Alex White looked very muscular at weigh-ins and that concerns me because he can gas out and allow Moret to take over.
- Marion Reneau $7.3K – I expect to see Yana work the clinch and use her size advantage to earn a decision. Reneau can use her BJJ and look for a sneaky submission. I don’t see Yana paying off her price, but I do like Reneau for the submission upside, play her low volume in GPPs.
- Drew Dober $7.2K- Dober has fought at 170 pounds which leads me to believe that he may hydrate up to a size advantage. Dober is very tough and technical. This fight probably goes to decision so sprinkle him in a few GPP lineups.