Breaking down this UFC card wasn’t very difficult but some pricing issues have presented themselves. The pricing structure in relation to DraftKings scoring and the odds value have made this card tricky. Consider this:
The four highest priced fighters are in fights that may not finish: Bibulatov $9.4K, Walker $9.2K, Souza $9.1K, and Griffin $9K.
Significant odds value has already presented itself: Ramos, Teymur, Colares
More odds value is forming: Albini, Borella
Neither the main event nor the co-main event is favored to finish.
This presents some very unique situations in both cash and GPPs. I have played dozens of cards over the years and I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a card similar to this collection of 13 fights. I expect the midrange to be very popular this week and the guys with odds value will also be popular as always.
The Main Event: Raphael Assuncao $7.4K vs Marlon Moraes $8.8K
This is a rematch and Assuncao took the first fight via decision. It was a three-round fight and for DraftKings purposes, it was a very low scoring decision. This was Moraes’ first UFC fight when he took on Assuncao the first time and it was a low volume striking match. If this fight plays out to a similar pace over five rounds, it still may not be worth stacking in cash. I am more comfortable with Assuncao in cash at his price. Assuncao is playable in all GPP formats strictly because of his price. Moraes is a very tough play if the pace remains the same as the first fight. He is more likely to get the finish if that happens, but this fight is favored to go to a decision, so it is not the likely outcome. I advise only playing Moraes in multi-entry GPPs.