UFC on ESPN+ 11 | Gustafsson vs Smith Draftkings Breakdown  

UFC on ESPN+ 11 | Gustafsson vs Smith Draftkings Breakdown  

For a more detailed breakdown, please listen to our DraftKings podcast. We have 13 fights in Sweden. The DraftKings prices for this card came out early and there is significant odds value on this card. We have two lines that have already flipped and you can create a lineup with all favorites, which is rare in MMA DFS. That lineup will also be very popular.

Tier 1 Leans ($9.3K-$8.8K):

  • Alexander Gustafsson $9.3K (GPP/Cash) Gus has the advantage everywhere in this fight. I expect him to be technical as always and fight behind his jab. The most likely outcome is Gus via late finish or decision. Anthony Smith’s only chance is to catch Gus with a big punch.
  • Leonardo Santos $9.2K (GPP) Santos is the better fighter all around. My only issue here is Santos is coming off a 30+ month layoff and is 39 years old. Santos can use his leg kicks to do damage on the feet and can finish on the ground if the fight goes there, as he has world class BJJ.
  • Tonya Evinger $9K (GPP/Cash) I feel like a broken record here, but Evinger is better everywhere. Lansberg is at her best in the clinch, but she beat up on smaller opponents in the clinch early in her career. She isn’t as effective there vs these legit 135-pound females. Most likely a decision win, so low volume in GPPs. Safer for a cash win.
  • Alexander Rakic $8.9K (GPP/Cash) Rakic is very good and getting better. He can fight at range and hurt Manuwa with his leg kicks. Jimi Manuwa is 39 years old and has one path to victory – that big right hand. He has been so reckless in his last few fights, so I can see a finish by Rakic.

Tier 2 Leans ($8.7K-$8.2K):

  • Joel Alvarez $8.5K (GPP) Alvarez gave a terrible showing of himself vs Ismagulov in his first UFC fight on short notice. He has a lot of experience with a 15-2 record overall and a bunch of submission finishes. I like him to get this fight to the ground and work a few BJJ submissions here.
  • Chris Fishgold $8.3K (GPP) The winner of this fight has a great chance to be on the optimal lineup. Fishgold starts Round 1 on fire with heavy punches and aggression. This fight should score well in a finish win for Fishgold or via decision.

Tier 3 Leans ($8K-$7.5K):

  • Frank Camacho $8K (GPP/Cash) Camacho made weight and I expect him to win this fight. He has more power in his hands and is better on the ground. The odds have flipped so he has odds value also.
  • Makwan Amirkhani $7.9K (GPP) This fight is a pick em and if Amirkhani can withstand all the pressure of Fishgold in Round 1, he can win this fight late or on the judges’ scorecards. He is very good in scrambling situations so he should be fine early.
  • Bea Malecki $7.6K (GPP/Cash) Her opponent, Duda Santana, has more power, but Malecki has the technique advantage. This should be a striking match and Malecki will try to keep this at kicking range. I like her to win a decision here at home in Sweden.
  • Devin Clark $7.5K (GPP/Cash) If Clark can work his style, then he’ll be fine. Clark wants to clinch and get this fight to the ground. He wants to wrestle and will throw big punches to get to your body and clinch. His opponent should gas by Round 2 and Clark will be good for that decision win if he can get that early takedown. The early takedown is key.

Tier 4 Leans ($7.4K-$6.9K):

  • Daniel Teymur $7.4K (GPP) Teymur’s gas tank has been an issue. He comes out of the gate fast in Round 1, so the GPP play for a first-round finish is really appealing. His opponent hasn’t fought the best competition so far and Teymur can use his leg kicks to chop the bigger Bin Jo down to size. Teymur is also home in Sweden.
  • Rostem Akman $7.4K (GPP/Cash) Akman is my favorite guy in this range. I think he has a great price tag and this line should be priced much closer if not Akman as the favorite. He is the better striker and has a smothering ground game. The line is also closing up.
  • Christos Giagos $7.1K (GPP/Cash Punt) This is Giagos second stint in the UFC and he is good but not great. He’s worth a play here because he has been in the cage with better competition and has held his own. I think he can have success with his wrestling approach and I want to see him work that clinch/wrestling game early in Round 1.
  • Stevie Ray $7K (GPP/Cash Punt) This is a play based on the line being off and not knowing what to expect from Santos after a long layoff. Ray is good everywhere and should be able to exchange comfortably as long as it stays on the feet. He can win a striking based decision. If it goes to the ground, all bets are off, as Santos is a submission specialist.

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