I am finding this UFC card extremely difficult. There is already lots of line value so keep an eye out for how close some of these lines get. Early line value exposes the chalk plays of the card. Chalk plays will be highly owned in both tournaments and cash games.
The Main Event: Cain Velasquez $9K vs Francis N’Gannou $7.2K
I have been back and forth on this fight all week. I suggest playing both guys in GPPs and the cash stack is safe if you choose to play it. On the TQE MMA Podcast, Tyler said he would be speaking to a friend of his who has first-hand knowledge of Cain’s camp. The simple message is that Cain has been training very well and the video people have been passing around saying Cain looks slow was taped over a year ago.
My view on this fight is that Cain is going to pressure forward and initiate the exchanges, which is what Francis N’Gannou needs. I would like to see Francis take a page out of James Vick’s book and stay on the outside and counterstrike when Cain closes the distance. Cain’s pace is going to get the best of N’Gannou as the fight moves along. Cain is now 36 years old and hasn’t fought in 30 months so that pace may have an effect on him also.
I decided to get off the fence and take a stand, I am picking Francis N’Gannou by first-round KO/TKO. Francis will be in 16 of my 20 GPP lineups.