UFC Fight Night Beijing
TOP PLAY, VALUE PLAY AND PREMIUM BETS
For this UFC card, I highlighted the ‘Top Play’ to begin building your lineups around and a key value play that will free up a little bit of cash. There is a lot of unknown and little-known fighters that Steve and I discussed at length on our podcast, so please do yourself a favor and check out our podcast as well as Steve’s article. We will also be in the Discord chat throughout the weekend, so feel free to run some ideas by us.
Steve and I broke down each fight in great detail on the podcast Wednesday night and gave some insight on what to look for in our articles going forward. Steve and I seemed to be on the same page on a majority of these fights on Saturday morning so it would be beneficial to hear our breakdowns prior to constructing your lineups before the early morning fight card.
If you have any questions or ideas that you would like to see on the podcast or in the article contact me on twitter: @tyslice23.
SONG YADONG ($9100)
Coming into this fight as one of the top prospects in the Asian market, the UFC offered up a meatball for Yadong to get a relatively easy win against on Saturday morning. Yadong is currently 2-0 in the UFC with both wins coming by way of stoppage, both scoring over 100 points on DraftKings. I see no reason that anything would change given the fact that Yadong is taking a pretty significant step down in competition by fighting Morales. Morales, who is taking this fight on short notice, comes into this fight fresh off a win to a 3-4 fighter in Belabor but prior to that he lost on the Dana White Contender’s series by submission in a fight that he was -320 to win. I personally feel that Yadong is the better fighter standing and on the mat but he has a relatively easy path to victory taking this fight to the ground and submitting Morales.
SU MUDAERJI ($7400)
This is a high-risk high reward type of play that I personally love for GPPs. Mudaerji is one fighter on this card that I focused and watched a lot of footage on preparing for this fight card. Mainly because he is an athletic fighter who offers a diverse striking game that is fun to watch. Mudaerji is a fast striker who has a diverse kicking attack, has good footwork and head movement. When watching him, I compare his style somewhat to Dominick Cruz except I haven’t really seen Mudaerji switch stances, he has only really attacked from southpaw.
All this being said, if Smolka gets this fight to the ground, he wins, which makes Mudaerji very high risk. With that in mind, I made sure to look into his takedown defense, and he appears hard to take down, granted the fighters he has faced prior likely did not have the best wrestling. Mudaerji is also great in scrambles, which give me the notion that even if Smolka were to get this fight down or near a takedown, Mudaerji will be able to scramble back up and not be down for long. These combined with Smolka’s 34 percent takedown success at the lower weight class leads me to believe that the fight will remain standing, and Mudaerji is a very live underdog with a high fantasy upside. I know some people out there don’t want to take the risk that comes with a fighter like Mudaerji, and I totally understand that. If you fall into that category, just pretend that this article is about Alex Morono and get him in your lineups.
Just as I stated in my value play section, I think that Mudaerji is a very live dog who has the tools and athleticism to outstrike Smolka. I am slightly concerned about the takedown, but I love the value that we are getting here.
Rashad Coulter -110
Yes, I actually am advising people to put their money on Rashad Coulter. I know he has shown to be a terrible fighter and one that I never imagined that I would ever lay a penny on, but he is facing a fighter who should not be in the UFC in Hu Yaozong. I think the weight cut and better game planning will give Coulter the advantage. We are only seeing this line close because of the public’s perception that Coulter is terrible.
Li Jingliang -175
I’m going back and forth about betting on this fight. I like the spot that Jingliang is in because I do not think that Zawada is on the same level, but I am not a huge fan of the odds. If the odds drop to -150, jump on this play but if it stays around -175, play small if at all. Jingliang should try to keep this standing and out strike Zawada fairly easily.