UFC Fight Night 142: Junior dos Santos vs Tai Tuivasa
DraftKings Breakdown Saturday, December 1st
This is a unique week in which we have two UFC cards on back-to-back nights. In the past, this has happened twice a year, once in July for International Fight Week and once in Nov/Dec. The reason for the back to back events in the TUF finale is a full fight card on Friday night and a bigger card is usually scheduled for the next night on Saturday. This breakdown is going to be a little shorter, as Tyler and I are working overtime trying to get all the tape study done for both cards. I will have an article our for the TUF 28 Finale once the DK prices drop and weigh-ins are done also.
For a more extensive breakdown of each fight on this card, please listen to the podcast.
Be sure to screenshot any high scoring lineups and tag us on Twitter!!!
The Main Event: Tai Tuivasa $7.9K vs Junior dos Santos $8.3K
Tuivasa is at home and I’m not sure why dos Santos would take this fight. There are plenty of cards in Brazil and dos Santos can get a home fight at any time. I have this fight as a pick em. Both guys have clear paths to victory and come with some concerns. Tuivasa finished the two weakest fighters he’s faced but was not able to finish Arlovski and that worries me. Junior dos Santos is a seasoned veteran of the sport and can use the same game plan that won him a decision win versus Blagoy Ivanov and box him up for five rounds. This fight is stackable in cash and both guys are playable in GPPs. I haven’t decided if I’m going to stack in cash yet.
The Co-Main Event: Justin Willis $8.2K vs Mark Hunt $8K
This is Mark Hunt’s retirement fight, and his path to victory is to land a big punch for the KO/TKO. I prefer to play Justin Willis because of his range and wrestling. Wrestlers and grapplers have been very successful putting Mark Hunt on his back and working their ground game. Willis tried to knockout Chase Sherman in his last fight and gassed. I expect him to go for the path of least resistance and get an early takedown each round and work his ground and pound for the win.
Top Tier Leans ($9.5K-$8.7K):.
- Tyson Pedro $9.4K – I was all over Pedro in his fight versus OSP and he let me down. I think he rebounds here. Shogun Rua was viciously knocked out just four months ago and at 37 years old, his skills are deteriorating. He is another Brazilian fighter who could have stayed home and waited for the next UFC card in Brazil for his next fight. Pedro is a GPP play for me.
- Sodiq Yusoff $9.3K – Yusoff should be the highest priced fighter on this card. His speed and power are going to be overpowering. He is a cash game anchor and playable in all GPP formats.
- Kai-Kara France $9.1K – France is very talented and should already be in the UFC in my opinion. His opponent Elias Garcia is very small for 135 pounds. France will be the bigger fighter and more power in his striking. I like France in cash and GPPs.
- Damir Ismagulov $9.5K – Damir is the M1 155 pound title holder and Gorgees has fought low-level local talent. This is a big step up in competition for Gorgees and is only on this card because he is from Australia. Damir should score well mixing in his wrestling, grappling, and striking. He is better everywhere this fight goes. He’s expensive but play him in GPPs and cash if you have the money.
Mid Tier Leans ($8.5K-$7.7K):
- Wilson Reis $7.7K- Reis is going to chase his takedowns and that scores well on DraftKings. Nguyen moves forward and will bring the fight to Reis. I expect lots of action and transitions. Reis is a nice play for cash and can get a submission win so he’s a decent GPP play also. Nguyen is much better on the feet so Reis needs to get that takedown.
- Jake Matthews $8.4K vs Tony Martin $7.8K- This is my pick for fight of the night. I think this fight has the potential to go in many different ways. Both guys are good on the ground. I am a fan of both fighters and they have shown a lot of improvement since moving up to 170 pounds. Tony Martin walks around at 179 pounds, so he doesn’t have much to cut but will also be the smaller fighter. Matthews is going to be bigger but hasn’t shown that one punch knockout power lately. I think this is a toss-up fight, but I favor Martin because of the lower DK price. Both are playable in GPPs.
Lower Tier Leans ($7.6K-$6.9K):
- Paul Craig $7.5K- Paul Craig is always a guy who can be considered as a GPP play because of his ground game. Craig is well aware he is not the better striker in most cases so he tries to get the fight to the ground. He hasn’t always had much success getting it there but you know he is going to try any submission possible if he’s given the opportunity. His triangle from guard is dangerous. I like him in GPPs and you can use him in cash games also since his opponent is making his UFC debut and Craig has a significant size advantage.
- Yushin Okami $7K- Okami is a great cash punt. He’s very cheap and this fight is favored to go to decision. Additionally, he is going to have a size advantage and a reach advantage. This is Okami’s second stint in the UFC and he has no fear, he took a fight vs OSP at 205 pounds a few months back. His opponent is 19-0 Alexey Kunchenko who fights a very safe, technical style. If Okami can secure a takedown I like his chances to steal rounds.
Here is my advice for gathering information for any UFC event:
- Go to Tapology and print out the sheet for this event with all 12 fights listed.
- Listen to the Premium Podcast and make notes on the fights as you listen.
- Read this article and Tyler’s UFC article for more information.
- Check the odds on fight day to see if any line movement opens up value plays.
Types of MMA Contests on Draftkings:
- Cash (Head 2 Heads, 50/50s, triple ups)- Depending on the card I suggest 1 to 3 cash lineups. Playing cash is a slow grind. Pay attention to line movement. Some of the line movement happens early in the week but some will happen the day of the fight. When the line moves drastically that fighter will be highly owned in cash. Stacking the 5 round fights usually pays off. I like the Conor/Khabib stack here.
- Single Entry GPPs- Draftkings runs a $12, $5, and $1 single entry tournament every week. I play in them as my main source of GPP exposure. You don’t have to be overly risky here but you do want finishes here.
- Low Entry GPPs (less than 20 entries)- You play play these a few different ways. Sometimes I will spread around my exposure but other times I will work a 2 or 3 fighter core and only spread the remaining fighters in those other spots. A good place to fade fights or fighters. Draftkings runs a 20 entry $4 tourney most weeks. They also run a 3 entry $3 contest and a 3 entry $20 contest.
- High Entry GPPs (more than 20 entries)- You need the nuts to bring the big prize home!