UFC on ESPN+ 3 | Blachowicz vs Santos DraftKings Breakdown

UFC on ESPN+ 3 | Blachowicz vs Santos DraftKings Breakdown

This is one of those fun afternoon UFC cards where all it’s finished before dinner. We have some significant values you need to be aware of and more value may present itself soon. Jan Blachowicz is priced at $7.7K but his fight with Santos in the main event is now a pick em. Additionally, Damir Hadzovic is now the favorite in his fight and he is priced at $7.4K on DraftKings. Cash game lines will start with the main event stack (Santos/Blachowicz) and Hadzovic this week so you essentially have those three spots locked in already in cash. Blachowicz and Hadzovic will be very popular in all formats.

The Main Event: Jan Blachowicz $7.7K vs Thiago Santos $8.5K

This is a five-round fight and for that reason alone, both of these guys are GPP plays and the cash game stack is highly recommended, being many of Blachowicz’s fights go into the later rounds and end in decisions.

Let’s discuss Jan Blachowicz first. Jan is a disciplined striker. He is skilled and technical. He lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute. He will need to be good defensively because Santos will have the speed advantage both on the feet and with his hand speed. Jan can slow the pace with his grappling which includes a 1.59 takedown average per fight, and he is a BJJ black belt so he holds the advantage on the ground. He will look to take this fight deep into the championship rounds and work a decision or work his BJJ game. This will essentially be a home crowd for Jan being he is from Poland and it’s a train ride away to Prague.

Santos is a highlight waiting to happen. His speed and athleticism make him fun to watch and his power is evident with some of his KO/TKO finishes. He has been submitted a few times, which is why he’ll want to keep this fight on the feet, where his hand speed advantage comes into play. Santos only has two fights at LHW and neither has seen the scorecards. His gas tank at LHW doesn’t seem to be an issue, considering the Anders fight was physically exhausting. I am picking Santos to win this fight, but I would go with a 60-40% split in favor of Santos in multi GPP lineups.