UFC 238 | Cejudo vs Moraes DraftKings Breakdown  

UFC 238 | Cejudo vs Moraes DraftKings Breakdown  

We have 13 UFC fights in Chicago. The podcast file got destroyed this week, so we apologize for not getting that out to everyone. Tyler’s projections are live on the site.

Tier 1 Leans ($9.6K-$8.8K):

  • Valentina Shevchenko $9.6K (GPP/Cash) Valentina is better everywhere and has five rounds to accumulate DraftKings points. Using her is dependant on how many low-priced fighters you want to sprinkle into your lineups.
  • Tatiana Suarez $9.5K (GPP/Cash) Suarez is the high pace/high volume wrestler that can break the slate on DraftKings. She is also very safe to win this fight so selecting between Valentina and Tatiana is the tougher decision to make.
  • Petr Yan $9.3K (GPP) Yan is a legitimate title challenger with KO ability. Jimmie Rivera is not the opponent that engages in a firefight at close range, which can lead to that knockout. When you put those two statements together, we need to conclude if the KO finish is possible or probable. I am going to say the KO is possible but the more likely outcome is Yan to win a decision with more striking volume and damage inflicted. Hitting value is going to be difficult in this matchup.
  • Calvin Kattar $8.8K (GPP) Lamas is going to play it safe early in this fight. Kattar is extremely patient in his striking and is a vicious counter striker. I see Kattar finding a third-round finish if he is up two rounds heading into the third or Kattar by decision if it’s one round a piece going into Round 3.

Tier 2 Leans ($8.7K-$8.2K):

  • Tai Tuivasa $8.7K (GPP) Tuivasa is in a great spot to rebound from his 1st loss. The only path Ivanov has to win is land that big left hand. Tuivasa needs a volume based approach and land a big punch when it presents itself. Ivanov is cautious and moves back to avoid the striking attack. He is looking to move back, draw Tuivasa in and throw the left hand. Tuivasa can beat him with volume but paying off that price is not a given with this approach.
  • Marlon Moraes $8.3K (GPP/Cash) He’s my pick to win this fight. His hand speed and power are very good for 135 pounds. His kicks can finish the fight at any time. He is big for the weight class and is at a great price for both cash games and GPP. The cash stack is in play also.
  • Eddie Wineland $8.2K (GPP) I expected to be on Popov in this matchup, but I was not impressed with what I saw on tape. I think Eddie wins here with his experience and significant damage inflicted.

Tier 3 Leans ($8.1K-$7.7K):

  • Henry Cejudo $7.9K (GPP/Cash) Cejudo is getting exactly what he asked for in this title fight. He got the win over DJ at 125 pounds, finished TJ to defend his title and wanted that rematch with TJ at 135 pounds for the champ-champ title. Unfortunately, TJ popped, which left the door open for this matchup. As stated earlier, my pick to win is Moraes. I think he wins with better power striking, and he won’t get caught on the ground for long. If Marlon can keep his distance, those kicks become even more dangerous. Cejudo has the wrestling upside to secure takedowns but hasn’t shown the ability to damage his opponents when he gets the fight to the ground. If it goes five rounds, the stack will certainly pay in cash.
  • Pedro Munhoz $7.7K (GPP) I do favor Sterling to win this fight via decision. Sterling also doesn’t allow many strikes against him, which is why playing Munhoz in cash isn’t on my agenda here. Munhoz has finishing ability on the feet and on the ground. Sterling will have a significant reach advantage and can use his jab and front kicks to neutralize Munhoz on the feet.

Tier 4 Leans ($7.6K-$6.6K):

  • Donald Cerrone $7.6K (GPP/Cash) My gut feeling says Cowboy wins this fight and that feeling is so specific that I’m calling for a second-round finish. Tony Ferguson is a beast, but I don’t see Cowboy willingly going to the ground with him and I think Cowboy’s striking is going to give Tony fits when he comes forward. Once Tony starts coming forward, he doesn’t stop and tries to put that pace on his opponents. I can see Cowboy putting some of his patented combinations on Tony, ending with the head kick.
  • Darren Stewart $7.2K (GPP) At some point in this fight (probably Round 1), Darren Stewart is going to bite down on his mouthpiece and exchange wildly with Bevon Lewis. I think somebody gets dropped here or hurt bad enough that the finish on the ground is likely.
  • Angela Hill $7.1K (Cash Punt/GPP) We should see three rounds of high volume striking here. Hill is so cheap that 40 to 60 points in a cash game is expected. This will be a striking match and Hill can win if she out volumes Yan. Both girls are volume strikers.

Straight Bets:

  • Eddie Wineland -140
  • Tai Tuivasa -135
  • Aljamain Sterling 140
  • Valentina Shevchenko ITD +128