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Tier 1 Leans ($9.6K-$8.9K):
- Raoni Barcelos $9.6K (GPP/Cash) Barcelos should finish this fight. His opponent, Huachin, is dangerous on the feet with some big, wild punches, but he hasn’t faced anyone with the skills of Barcelos, who also has a huge advantage on the ground.
- Clay Guida $9.5K (GPP) The price on Guida at this point in his career is unreal but with an opponent like BJ Penn, it is warranted. Guida should win this fight but to pay off his price, he’ll need to finish in the first two rounds. Guida’s gas tank will be too much for Penn, who is going to gas, and I expect Guida to finish Penn when he starts dragging.
- Irene Aldana $9.2K (GPP/Cash) Aldana is a much better striker than Correia. As long as it stays on the feet, we should see 6+ strikes landed per minute from Aldana. A KO/TKO victory is very possible from a high volume.
Bethe Correia weighed in five pounds over the limit.
Tier 2 Leans ($8.8K-$8.3K):
- Jessica Andrade $8.3K (GPP/Cash Stack) She has her shot at winning the belt in Brazil, what more needs to be said. The best home court advantage in the UFC is Brazil. Andrade is the stronger fighter but will be giving up some height and reach. I expect her to pressure from the start and make this a street fight. Pressure and push Rose back. Andrade will push Rose against the cage, clinch and look for the takedown. She wants to use her strength advantage.
- Jose Aldo $8.4K (GPP/Cash) Aldo has looked great in his last two fights and I can’t stop thinking Volkanovski is going to make a mistake at some point and Aldo is going to make him pay. Aldo starts fast and can win Rounds 1 and 2 and cruise to a decision if he can withstand the clinch work and takedowns.
- Ryan Spann $8.8K (GPP) This is a low-volume play but it works because of the finishing upside Spann possesses. He is fighting an aging fighter in Nogueira who looked slow in his last outing vs Sam Alvey, whowas able to hurt Nogueira twice in Round 1 but didn’t go in to close the deal. Spann won’t make that mistake if he can hurt his opponent here.
- Thiago Moises $8.5K (GPP) Moises showed very good promise in his Contender’s Series fight but then was grounded in his first UFC fight by Beneil Dariush. Kurt Holobaugh is his opponent here and he will strike early and often, so Moises will have the chance to shine if his power and speed are legit. This should be a great fight and either guy can finish.
Tier 3 Leans ($8.2K-$7.6K):
- Sergio Moraes $7.6K (GPP) Moraes is a great underdog play in GPPs because he throws wide power punches and has the finishing submission game on the ground. This fight could be a stalemate if neither guy is able to hurt their opponent on the fight.
- Kurt Holobaugh $7.7K (GPP) I like this fight to finish because Holobaugh is so aggressive. I favor Holobaugh in this fight; he pushes forward and strikes to finish. Moises was grounded in his last fight vs Dariush, but he can bang also.
- Sergio Moraes $7.6K (GPP) Moraes has legit BJJ so a submission is possible. The issue is that his opponent is also a black belt in BJJ, so this will play out on the feet until somebody gets hurt and takes it to the ground.
- Laureano Staropoli $8K (GPP/Cash) I like Starpoli a lot in this fight. I am aware of the risk that he is fighting a beloved Brazilian in Thiago Alves, but I’m taking the risk here. Staropoli throws a consistent volume and his strikes are heavy. I see him winning via KO/TKO or losing a striking based decision.
- Alexander Volkanovski $7.8K (GPP) Volkanovski is a high volume, high-intensity MMA fighter. He pushes forward, he’ll strike at very close range, and he’ll string takedowns together. This is an extremely difficult fight for him because if he makes a mistake he gets picked apart and hurt bad.
Tier 4 Leans ($7.4K-$6.8K):
- Priscila Cachoeira $7.3K (GPP/Cash Punt) This fight should go the distance, which makes Cachoeira a great cash punt. I think she also has a great chance to win, being this should stay on the feet, and she’s fighting Luana Carolina, who is making her UFC debut. This is a step down in competition for Cachoeira.
- Rogerio Nogueira $7.4K (GPP) I didn’t expect much from Nogueira in his last fight vs Sam Alvey and I don’t think we saw much to be impressed with to be completely honest. Alvey had him hurt twice in round 1 and let him off the hook. Nogueira caught Alvey in Round 2 and finished him. I expect Ryan Spann to push the pace, use his speed and athleticism to tire Nogueira out and finish him late. With that being said Nogueira has KO/TKO ability and is in his home country of Brazil so he’s worth a few shots in GPPs.
- Anderson Silva $7.5K (GPP) If Anderson Silva can last for 15 minutes in Brazil, he probably wins a striking based decision by just counter striking. I doubt it scores well but if you track the Silva Decision prop, it keeps dropping.
- Jessica Andrade -130
- Jose Aldo -135
- Anderson Silva +110
- Irene Aldana -300
- Talita Bernardo -325