UFC 236: Holloway vs Poirier 2
Saturday, March 30th, 2019 3:30 pm EST
For a more detailed breakdown into UFC 236, please listen to our DraftKings podcast. I broke the fighters into four tiers, and price points are included. I also listed a few bets that I like on the bottom of the article. Please ask any questions in the discord chat.
Tier 1 Leans ($9.4K-$8.8K):
- Max Holloway $9.1K (GPP/Cash) – Full disclosure, Max Holloway is my favorite fighter in the UFC. The guy is a beast and strikes at a high volume. His volume is high, and he is the rare breed that increases volume as the fight goes on and he sees his opponent tire. My pick is Max via late finish. I am all in on the Holloway/Poirier cash game stack. Max is a high volume GPP play also.
- Eryk Anders $9K (GPP) – Anders is fighting a one-dimensional fighter in Khalil Rountree, who is only dangerous on the feet with space to throw that big left hand. It’s a big straight left hand so Anders can’t spend too much time directly in front of Rountree. I expect Anders to use a similar game plan to his fight with Thiago Santos and chase the takedown early and grind Rountree against the cage to slow him down. I like Anders to win and I’d play him in GPPs at a lower volume.
- Montel Jackson $9.4K (GPP/Cash) – I expect Jackson to finish Andre Soukhamthath. Jackson is better everywhere this fight can go. Feel comfortable playing Jackson in cash and GPPs if you can fit his price.
Tier 2 Leans ($8.7K-$8.2K):
- Nikita Krylov $8.2K (GPP) – Krylov is going to push the pace early in this fight with his striking based approach. He uses a well-rounded game in the octagon, but he hasn’t identified where his opponent’s strengths lie which is where he gets in trouble. For example, in his fight with Jan, he was having success on the feet but because he decided to grapple, he got taken down and submitted. Just stay on the feet Krylov! This fight should finish so having some Krylov vs OSP in this rematch is worth the investment.
- Jalin Turner $8.4K (GPP) – There are reasons to be concerned with Turner; his level of competition in wins, he’s been knocked cold a few times, can he handle the in your face pressure/pace of Matt Frevola. Turner will have a six-inch reach advantage and six0inch height advantage. Turner is a great play because his likely path to victory is connecting with a big punch in round 1 for the finish. If Frevola can get him deep into the fight, that will favor Frevola’s style.
- Zalim Imadaev $8.2K (GPP) – Zalim is 8-0 with 8 stoppages. His level of competition is very low, and he enters the UFC with a hype train pushing the narrative that he belongs. This will be a striking match so if Zalim is as good as advertised, he can get this KO/TKO. I am picking Griffin in this fight because I don’t know if this 24-year-old is the truth or not.
- Boston Salmon $8.6K (GPP) – Salmon makes his UFC debut in a great stylistic matchup for him. I expect these guys to exchange on the feet and Salmon has excellent counter boxing skills. He’s a southpaw who likes to lean back when his opponent closes the distance and unloads straight left hands. Taha puts on a good pace on the feet so I expect Salmon to have plenty of opportunities to counter punch and potentially get the knockout if he can find that chin.
- Belal Muhammad $8.5K (GPP/Cash) – Belal has a great stylistic matchup for him. I expect him to outwork Curtis Millender for a three-round decision. Millender wants to stay at range and strike but Belal will not allow it to stay there long. I expect Belal to shoot for takedowns and also work the clinch and bully Millender to the ground. He may be able to work a submission on the ground but most likely it’ll be a decision win for Belal Muhammad.
- Brandon Davis $8.7K (GPP/Cash) – This should be a striking match and that favors Brandon Davis, who is also desperate for a win. Davis is a Muay Thai striker who lands at a decent rate. I also think he’ll have a size advantage here since he’s dropping down to 135 pounds for the 1st time. As long as his cardio checks out, he should be fine. His opponent Randy Costa has fought very low-level opponents and I don’t think he’s ready for a striker like Davis.
Tier 3 Leans ($8.0K-$7.6K):
- Dwight Grant $7.9K (GPP) – Dwight Grant has knockout power with his counter-punching style. My gut feeling is he counters Jouban and knocks him out here.
- Ovince St. Preux $8K (GPP) – This fight is favored to finish, and my gut feeling is OSP catches Krylov as he closes the distance. Krylov starts fast and OSP will be very dangerous early in this fight. If Krylov is able to put a pace on OSP then a late finish is very likely for Krylov.
- Matt Frevola $7.8K (GPP) – This is a fight I am very excited to watch. Frevola brings the fight to you and pushes the pace. I expect to see him use his wrestling to ground Jalin Turner. If it plays out on the feet it favors Turner and his length. On the ground, Frevola has a chance to score well and use his submissions to finish.
- Max Griffin $8K (GPP) – You have to consider Griffin in GPPs because we don’t know if the hype train is legit. Imadaev has a boxing style, which plays into the style of Griffin so this will be contested on the feet. Griffin is very tough and has a good chin. This is Imadaev’s toughest test to date and I wasn’t overly impressed by him on tape. His opponents were sloppy and out of shape.
Tier 4 Leans ($7.5K-$6.8K):
- Dustin Poirier $7.1K (GPP/Cash) – As stated earlier, the main event will be stacked in most cash lineups. Poirier is so cheap you almost have to play him in cash. We expect a high-volume striking match. Poirier probably packs more power in his hands, but Holloway’s volume increases as the fight gets into the later rounds and his use of angles with his combinations is equally impressive.
- Kelvin Gastelum $7K (GPP/Cash) – I am very interested to see how Kelvin approaches this fight. The strategy he brings will determine this fight. I expect to see him pressure Adesanya and push him to the cage. If he is successful with that strategy, he can look for takedowns against the cage or strike in close range, which is necessary to overcome a large height and reach disadvantage. Kelvin has a legit shot in this fight and has a few paths to win.
- Wilson Reis $7.4K (GPP/Cash) – Reis is a great play at this price if he can use his wrestling/BJJ style to secure multiple takedowns and a possible submission finish. His opponent Pantoja is the better striker, but I do not expect it to stay on the feet very long if Reis has success with his style.
- Lauren Mueller $7.3K (GPP/Cash) – Mueller is coming off a disappointing fight result last time out and I expect a better performance. She had a lot of success on the feet early in round 1 before following her opponent to the ground and getting submitted via armbar. I like her pressure and pace as a striker vs Poliana Botelho. Mueller can win a decision with volume and pressure. I also like Mueller in the clinch if she decides to push Botelho up against the cage.
- Brandon Davis -165
- Belal Muhammad -140
- Wilson Reis +130
- Anders/Rountree over 1.5 rounds -140
- Max Holloway -200 (wait and it should continue to drop)
- Turner/Frevola FDGTD -355
- Krylov/OSP FDGTD -350
- Lauren Mueller Decision +211
- Montel Jackson KO/TKO +287
- Dwight Grant +166
- OSP KO/TKO +598