UFC 230: Cormier vs Lewis
TOP PLAY, VALUE PLAY AND PREMIUM BETS
For this card I highlighted the ‘Top Play’ to begin building your lineups around and a key value play that will free up a little bit of cash. Since there is no real middle tier on Saturday night, we are going to have to rely on a few key underdog plays to get the win and allow us to stack some higher priced talent in hopes of taking down a GPP.
Steve and I broke down each fight in great detail on the podcast Wednesday night and gave some insight on what to look for in our articles going forward.
If you have any questions or ideas that you would like to see on the podcast or in the article contact me on twitter: @tyslice23.
Daniel Cormier ($9,600)
I know, I know Cormier is the most expensive fighter on the slate, but I really feel that he is a must play in this spot. If you look at this fight and try to break it down in every which way, there is only one potential outcome that sees Derrick Lewis walk away the winner, and that is by knockout. Lewis doesn’t have a chance to win via decision or submissions, so essentially Cormier has a clear-cut game plan and only has one realm of the fight that he has to worry about danger in.
From the offensive side of the fight, Cormier has a few ways to win this fight and all of those will be high scoring. Cormier will likely use a very similar strategy than the one he implemented versus Stipe Miocic, he needs to close the distance work the clinch and hit Lewis with short power shots or use his far superior wrestling skills to get Lewis to the ground, stay controlled in top position while mixing in ground and pound before eventually sinking in a choke. It will be interesting to see what game plan Cormier chooses to execute, but one thing I am confident in is that whichever it is, we will see Cormier likely achieve a score of over 100 and for 9.6k I will be happy with that in cash and GPP.
Jacare Souza ($7,700)
There are actually three underdogs that I am really high on in terms of DraftKings scoring. I talk about these on the podcast and detail my plan of attack in multi-entry GPP during the fight breakdowns. For purposes of this article I am focusing on Souza, he is the underdog that I am most confident in on this fight card and while he isn’t the cheapest of them, I truly feel that he shouldn’t even be an underdog at all in this fight. And for that, he is an extreme value.
Weidman had been knocked out in his past few fights going into his fight with Gastelum. In order to get back on track Weidman executed a game plan that was very wrestling heavy and wore Gastelum down before getting the submission. In this fight with Jacare, Weidman cannot attempt that same plan of attack without consequence. Jacare is one of the best Jiu-Jitsu players who has ever been inside the UFC octagon and holds a significant edge if the fight were to go to the ground. That being the case, the fight will remain standing where Jacare will use his powerful striking to test that shaky chin of Weidman. Getting Souza at a short price of 7.7k is a value that should give your lineup the boost it needs to be in a good spot to make money come Saturday night.
Montel Jackson -125
Jackson needs to use his nine-inch reach advance to keep the distance and pick Kelleher apart. Kelleher will likely be trying to get this fight to the ground but with a weak 28 percent takedown success rate, he will struggle to do so giving Jackson a huge edge in this fight at a discount in odds.
Jacare Souza +160
(please see above; Value Play)
Lyman Good inside the distance -270
Lyman Good is a stud plain and simple. He is being matched against a fighter that has been stopped in six of his last seven losses. I nearly pulled the trigger on Good via KO at -210 but don’t mind laying the extra odds to lock in the possibility of a submission in a fight that I am very confident Good will earn a stoppage in.
Derek Brunson via KO/TKO +615-
Brunson needs to close the distance and test Adesanya’s chin, if he doesn’t close the distance and land big shots, he will be in trouble. For the +615 price tag I think this is a great play since it is Brunson’s only real way to win the fight.
PARLAY- Wieczorek/Good (if you can get him around -550)/Karl Roberson/David Branch +217
I am currently debating on Roberson inside the distance prop, it is currently -122. Roberson is the better fighter everywhere it goes and he should be able to finish the fight on the feet and on the ground. I am currently waiting to see if I can get better odds on it so it is not yet an official recommendation by it is highly likely that I pull the trigger even at the current price tag