Welcome, to the Judge’s Verdict. We have a very tricky nine-game NBA slate tonight with lots of injury news and lots of value. You should be smart tonight with your bankroll, as the variance tonight makes this a slate tailor-made for supercomputers. We will have to use all of our powers to come out on top tonight.
Here are some of my top tournament plays for today’s slate.
Note: The numbers in parenthesis refer to the salaries of that particular player. The first number is the FanDuel (“FD”) salary, while the second number is the DraftKings (“DK”) salary.
Terry Rozier (4.3, 5.3)
Kyrie is out tonight for the Celtics, and that means several Celtics are intriguing tonight vs. Minnesota. There’s no way to sugarcoat it, Rozier has been awful this year. He has not learned to adjust to his 18 minute a night role as a backup. And even in the limited time, he’s gotten with Kyrie off the court, he has looked lost and been inefficient. However, this guy has legitimate talent, would be starting on a majority of NBA teams, and was paying off his salary with ease last year at 7K when starting. I have zero issue using Rozier on any site in any format tonight. He has 50 fantasy point upside if he can get in a rhythm, and obviously, without Kyrie he will get the minutes to find that rhythm tonight.
Josh Okogie (3.9, 3.7)
Minnesota is really banged up like a lot of teams tonight. They are missing their only true perimeter defender in Covington, so that opens up tons of minutes for Okogie. It is interesting to see sites projecting Saric for big minutes tonight, but if you’ve been watching games – Okogie and not Saric should be the one to benefit tonight. Okogie has the potential to be a lock down defender, and he is already becoming a Thibs favorite. He can slide right in and play the exact role that Covington normally plays for this team. He is not a high usage guy, but at his price, any usage would be a bonus for us tonight. We just need him to get the minutes, and he will stumble his way to 25+ fantasy points.
Paul George (10.0, 9.2)
Oh, the DFS “experts” love to talk revenge narratives or going home narratives. And tonight with PG13, we have a little of both. Laker Nation is still pretty angry that PG13 wouldn’t even give his hometown team a meeting as a free agent. So, I would expect the boos to rain down tonight on PG13 in his not so welcome return to LA. To me, the narratives are just a bonus, as I think PG13 is an elite play simply based on the game environment and the way he’s been playing. The only one that can stop PG13 tonight is his own teammate Russ, as we saw last game. However, even if Russ gets hot and takes all the usage, PG13 does enough to stuff the stat sheet that he won’t kill your lineups. And, we have to remember that the majority of the year PG13 has easily been the best player on the Thunder. He has been so efficient, been shooting excellent, playing lights out defense and is a lock for 35 minutes tonight in a warp speed game…oh and he’s in a revenge game going home!
John Collins (8.4, 8.2)
I am not a huge fan of PF (especially on FD). Most appear to be going the Saric/AD route in cash games, and I will have tons of AD simply due to the fact (1) there’s tons of value on this slate and (2) I really do not like this position. However, the Saric play is perplexing as discussed above. He simply does not play the SF position and is not a replacement for Covington. One guy I want to target is Collins because he gets the fantasy gold matchup of the Wizards tonight. I am a tad weary of this price tag, and I am not going to have 100 percent exposure – but I still do think there is upside for Collins tonight at this price. If the pace lives up to the 230 over/under, Collins is primed to put up 50 with 4-5 steals/blocks. I liked him more when I thought Dedmon was out because I get giddy when Collins plays the center spot like last game. However, even with Dedmon probable, Collins should be a fantasy terror tonight vs. the Wizards.
Willy Hernangomez (5.4, 3.8)
Cody Zeller is out for the Hornets and that means fantasy point per minute monster Hernangomez will enter the starting lineup. Early projected ownership has Hernangomez as chalk on DK but being overlooked on FD. I will load up on DK and on FD, I will use in some tournaments. He does still have upside at this price. Coach Borrego wants Willy to protect the paint, and his comments have me a tad weary of his minutes tonight. After all, Zeller usually only saw 26-28 minutes and Charlotte can go small with Marvin at the center spot. If Willy does struggle at the defensive end against Dallas, he will get benched. However, on DK, he will still pay off the salary even if the minutes are limited. And on FD, it is worth the risk in tournaments. I am hoping that vs. Jordan and the Mavs tonight, Borrego extends the leash on Willy just a bit – as Jordan will feast if Charlotte does go small tonight. Granted, Jordan may feast anyway.
Alright, the Judge’s Verdict is in and it is final. Good luck tonight!
If you have any comments/feedback, I’d love to hear it. You can find me on twitter @DanielAGreen1. Also, be sure to check out my NBA DFS podcast DG Courtroom every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday during the NBA season.