Welcome, to the Judge’s Verdict. We have an excellent 10 game NBA slate tonight– so let’s get right down to business. We hit on Wiggins and Oubre yesterday, so let’s hope we can find a few more gems for tonight.
Here are some of my top tournament plays for today’s slate.
Note: The numbers in parenthesis refer to the salaries of that particular player. The first number is the FanDuel (“FD”) salary, while the second number is the DraftKings (“DK”) salary.
Kyrie Irving (8.4, 8.7)
I like Kyrie better on FD than DK, but think he is worthy of some tournament exposure on both sites. Tonight, appears to be an odd night at PG, as the chalk appears to only be Melton (Harden too if you count him as a PG on DK). And with Booker doubtful, I have no issue using Melton in all formats. However, in tournaments when everyone else is spending down at a position, I love to go contrarian and spend up. On paper, not an ideal spot for Kyrie with a slow game against Indiana. But, Kyrie is pace proof and matchup proof in my opinion. If he comes out aggressive, he can get us 50 and at 15 percent or lower, he can give us the edge we need to take down a tournament.
D’Angelo Russell (7.7, 7.6)
Harden is obviously the top SG and top player on the slate for me tonight. The second SG spot comes down to Russel or Mitchell. I will play both, but I lean Russell simply because how much suffering can we take with Mitchell? His usage spikes to over 40 percent without Rubio and Exum – so Mitchell is in play AGAIN. But Russell just does more on the court right now to stuff the stat sheet. Mitchell is solely a high volume shooter who forgot how to be a playmaker this year, while Russell has been developing into a solid point guard with improved decision making on the offensive end. Also, Russell gets the tastiest matchup in the world vs. Atlanta and Trae Young. Russell can easily get us 45-50 tonight against the dreadful Hawks.
TJ Warren (6.7, 7.1)
Yesterday, the Phoenix/Sacramento game was glorious…except for Warren. He was very mediocre and still put up 21 points on 19 shots. I expect him to have a much better game tonight against Dallas, and I also think his ownership will be a tad lower than it was last night (he will still be popular though). With Booker out, Warren is clearly their best scoring option, and Oubre is not going to have the game of his life once again tonight. So, fire Warren up with confidence tonight.
Domantas Sabonis (7.0, 7.1)
Yesterday, I wrote the following: “I am not going to overthink this too much. Turner is out, and Sabonis is a fantasy point per minute monster. When Sabonis gets over 30 minutes, I play him.” Well, Turner is out again, and I see no reason to change my philosophy. As explained on the podcast, Sabonis did not play well last night, got bullied by Thompson on the block, was not a part of the offense, and still put up 40 fantasy points. He is too quick, active, and crafty for any of the Boston big men tonight. The only reason to fade him is due to game theory and ownership – but it just seems like an easy lock for 40+.
Note: I do love Blake tonight at the Lakers if you want to spend up at PF, but not spend up enough for AD.
Mark Gasol (7.6, 6.5)
Gasol is NOT my favorite center tonight, and I will probably only have about 25 percent exposure. I like Embiid, Drummond, Jordan, Gobert, and even Thompson. Center is loaded. However, Gasol’s price on DK has now reached a point I cannot ignore. He does not look right on the court, and Memphis, not shockingly, has been losing every darn game due to Gasol slumping. The matchup tonight vs. the Spurs is not ideal either in what should be a slow paced game. But again, Gasol is just too talented a player to pass up completely at 6.5K. He does not have to do much to pay off that salary. So, while I am not thrilled with rostering Gasol on a 10 game slate that is loaded at the center spot – his price will draw me in a bit on DK. He will eventually snap out of his funk – so why not tonight?
Alright, the Judge’s Verdict is in and it is final. Good luck tonight!
If you have any comments/feedback, I’d love to hear it. You can find me on twitter @DanielAGreen1. Also, be sure to check out my NBA DFS podcast DG Courtroom every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday during the NBA season.