Welcome, to the Judge’s Verdict. We have a perfect sized NBA slate of seven games to start the week. Let’s get right down to business.
Here are some of my top tournament plays for tonight’s NBA slate.
Note: The numbers in parenthesis refer to the salaries of that particular player. The first number is the FanDuel (“FD”) salary, while the second number is the DraftKings (“DK”) salary.
John Wall (9.5, 9.3)
As I mentioned on today’s podcast, I have grown tired of watching Wall play in real life. He takes awful shots, refuses to let his shooters get enough touches, plays carelessly at crucial moments, and seems to be an awful teammate. But with that said, for fantasy purposes, this is meaningless. He is an elite play tonight against Mudiay and the Knicks in a 227 over/under game. Wall is taking 19 shots a game in the last week, and he’s facing off against a Knicks team that is bottom five in defensive efficiency. Let’s all climb that Wall together tonight, and let Wall lead us to glory.
Cheap secondary plays from high over/under games
At SG, I am looking to use different players based on the pricing discrepancies on FD and DK. I am on the prowl for low priced guys who are in games that I want to target. On FD, I keep staring at Avery Bradley. He’s now played 30+ minutes (fine, 29 in one of them) in the last six games, and he gets a warp speed matchup vs. the Pelicans tonight (238.5 over/under). Bradley is not normally I guy I ever look to target in tournaments, but I have been feasting on grabbing cheap guys in these types of NBA games all year. When teams play at this level of pace, the ball goes flying all over the place. I expect 20+ steals in this game between the two teams and for Bradley to grab 3-4 of those.
On DK, I have no issue going back to Satoransky even though it did not work out on Saturday night, as he’s now starting for the Wizards. He’s not the same defensive menace that Bradley is, but the same concept described above applies in the Washington/New York game. There is going to be fantasy points for everyone, and we just need Satoransky to stumble into 20 of them.
Note: The entire industry seems to love THJ today. I am not saying to fade him, but I am saying that he has been awful for most of the year. If he is not making his shots, he will mope in the corner and let whoever is hot take all the usage late in the game. He defers to anyone: Mudiay, Trier, Knox, Vonleh, Dotson, Kanter. Also, the Wizards do defend the SG position well (it’s the only spot they defend well). So, I too like THJ, however, the “experts” touting him have clearly not been watching the Knicks play all year.
Taurean Prince (5.6, 4.8)
We’re a quarter of the way through the NBA season, and the Hawks rotation is still an absolute mess. Playing Hawks in cash or H2H games remains a scary proposition for me, as that wacky coach still uses at least 10 guys a game, and the only player who seems to be a lock for 30 minutes is John Collins. However, on DraftKings all the Hawks are dirt cheap, and they probably will be popular tonight. The one guy I have my eye on for both sites is Prince, who has been a major disappointment this year after finishing last year on fire. But lately, there have been encouraging signs. As with any Hawks player, the key is minutes and those are trending up. He’s played 30+ minutes in 3/4 games. Prince has always been a stat sheet stuffer, so we don’t need a ton of usage to pay off his cheap salary in a high tempo game vs. the Warriors tonight (232 over/under). Prince is a high-energy guy and plays 100 miles per hour, so if you’re watching this game – you’ll be able to tell pretty fast if you’re getting the out of control Prince (envision two fouls in four minutes) or the one who is going to get five steals/blocks and bust the slate open. Let’s pray for the latter.
Noah Vonleh (5.5, 5.3)
Vonleh has some similarities to Prince in that he’s a high-energy guy who has a tendency to never stop fouling! So, if Vonleh can keep his hands to himself tonight, he’s in an elite spot vs. Washington. He’s fouled out of 2/3 games and been in foul trouble in 4/5 games, and honestly, that’s been the only thing holding him back the last few weeks. Coach Fizdale has called Vonleh the most complete player on his team this year, and from watching the Knicks games, I would tend to agree. This is a prime spot for Vonleh to put up a big number against the Wizards. Let’s just hope the refs don’t have a quick whistle, and then we will be fine with this play.
Nikola Jokic (8.5, 8.2)
I’ve been keeping my eye on Jokic a lot the last few weeks waiting for his price to drop. His minutes have been way down, as Plumlee has just been dominating every time he steps on the floor and Malone has been riding the hot hand. However, last game Malone finally unleashed Jokic and Plumlee at the same time (last year he did this a lot, but this year he had refused too until last game). Jokic is a 10K talent, and his minutes are not going to stay under 30 for long. He has a massive ceiling (we’ve seen him score over 70 fantasy points numerous times), so at this price, I will make sure I use him in a lineup or two each night regardless of matchup. Even in limited minutes, he has been putting up decent stat lines, so he is due for an explosion soon. I am not going to miss out when that explosion occurs.
Alright, the Judge’s Verdict is in and it is final. Good luck tonight!
If you have any comments/feedback, I’d love to hear it. You can find me on twitter @DanielAGreen1. Also, please be sure to check out my NBA DFS podcast DG Courtroom every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday during the NBA season.