Historically a much better home player (averaging 7 more DK points per game at home in 2018), I am less concerned about Brees on the road this week because it is an indoor game in Dallas. The Saints have moved the ball around a lot the last four weeks. Dan Arnold, Keith Kirkwood, and Josh Hill has the same target share as Alvin Kamara in the last four games. Brees has taken what the defense gives him and it has resulted in the Saint inialiaty teams, getting big leads, and a lack of passing volume. Something has to give as the Cowboys are only allowing 1.36 touchdowns per game this season (92nd percentile) and Brees has thrown for four or more touchdowns in three of four games. Brees has the safest floor and maybe the highest ceiling, will spread the ball around and is an excellent captain play.
The Saints defense has been so much better of late. Forcing 2 or more turnovers, getting at least sacks, and not allowing more than 17 points in their last three games. They are finally playing like they were expected to coming into the year. At the same time Dak Prescott has turned the corner since the arrival of Amari Cooper averaging 20.17 DK points per game and he has rushed for a touchdown in three straight games. This matchup is much tougher than one would think with the Saints playing much better ball of late, but they have allowed more rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks than any other team in the league and Dak comes with a nice mixture of floor and ceiling in this one. The biggest concern for Dak is the bad splits without Tyron Smith, in 2017 his explosive pass percentage dropped 2% and his YPA dropped from 7.26 to 6.28 when Smith was off the field.
Kamara has not seen more than five targets since week eight versus the Vikings and his snap count has been 65% or less in the same time span. He and Dan Arnold have the same target share over that time span if you can believe it. The Cowboys, led by two stud linebackers have done a good job limiting pass catching backs to just 45 yards per game, and allow only 3.69 yards per carry. Kamara has slate breaking upside, but as one of the higher owned projected players in this game, I am comfortable fading in single entries.