The betting tool is very confident in the Eagles tonight, and an Eagles onslaught makes a lot of sense for this game.
- LB Zach Brown (knee):
- If Zach Brown misses this game, it is a massive boost to the Eagles run game. With Brown on the field, the Redskins are allowing 4.12 yards per carry compared to 5.5 with him off the field. The explosive run percentage and run success rate also jump with him off the field.
- WR Jamison Crowder (ankle):
- Explosive pass percentage jumps five percent with him on the field. Has taken zero snaps with Colt McCoy this year.
- CB Quinton Dunbar (shin):
- With Dunbar — YPA: 7.75. Explosive pass percentage: 13.3 percent. Without Dunbar — YPA: 8.77. Explosive pass percentage: 23.2 percent.
- DL Matt Ioannidis (shin):
- Run success rate against jumps five percent with him off the field
- RT Morgan Moses (knee)
- IMPORTANT NOTE: BOTH STARTING GUARDS ARE OUT
- Run success with 48.1percent, pass success with 48.0 percent
- Run success without 32.3 percent, pass success without 36.4 percent
- WR Trey Quinn (ankle)
- TE Jordan Reed (back)
- CB Jalen Mills (foot)
- Explosive plays jump with no Mills on the field. 4.3 percent explosive run and 16.3 percent explosive pass against, while 9.7 percent explosive run and 20.3 percent explosive pass percentage against. The Eagles sack percentage has also dipped 2.2 percent.
- CB Avonte Maddox (knee, ankle)
- Run Success rate nine percent lower with him off the field, while YPA jumps from 7.33 to 8.32 without Maddox this year.
- LB Jordan Hicks (calf)
- Hicks has missed only 87 snaps this season. The Eagles have been worse against the pass but far better versus the run on limited snaps.
- RB Darren Sproles (hamstring)
- Will mix into the passing game if he plays.
- DE Michael Bennett (foot)
- The Eagles have given up 25% explosive pass rate with no Bennett on the field, just 14.3% with him on the field.
- RB Josh Adams (hip)
Coming off back-to-back abysmal fantasy performances, Wentz is in a nice spot at home against a beat up Redskins team. He gets a big boost if Quinton Dunbar is out, as the Redskins have been gashed by big plays with him off the field. The Redskins have been an average pass defense on the year finishing between 48-66th percentile in every pass defense category in TQE’s head-to-head tool.
The key to Wentz having a big game is if he gets the volume. He is averaging 36.78 pass attempts and 289.11 yards per game this season, but in his last two weeks, he has attempted 28 and 33 pass attempts respectively, two of his three lowest volume games of the year. If he gets the volume, he should smash, but even if he doesn’t should score 15+ in this one. On a one-game slate, he should still find his way onto a majority of rosters.
With McCoy on the field, the Redskins have a 10 percent higher success ran running the ball and an eight percent higher success rate passing the ball. He is willing to take more shots down the field and it has opened up the offense.
I expect the Eagles to be in control in this one and force McCoy to take shots down. The Eagles are missing Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills, and Anthony Maddox in this one and that has led to a huge jump in explosive plays against. Look for McCoy to have the volume and opportunity to pass off his price.
Eagles Running Game
Our very own Matt Dickason has talked up how the advanced metrics don’t like the Redskins run defense. They have had good performances but as of late, the leaks have started to show. The big news on the Redskins side to watch is Zach Brown, when he is off the field the Redskins give up 5.5 yards per carry. Michael Kist, of Bleeding Green Nation broke down Mason Roster’s role as an ILB and showed how he is one of the worst run-stuffing linebackers in football. If Brown is out, look for the Eagles to have a ton of success running the ball.
Who that Eagles running back is going to be is the question
Nursing a sore hip Adams ability to play makes or breaks the slate. He has seen his snaps increase each of the last five weeks up to 62 percent in Week 12, tied to the most of an Eagle running back this season.
In what should be good gamescript for Adams, he has 20 touch upside in a good matchup. If he has the green light, I want him in as many lineups as possible.
Hasn’t played since Week 1, but in that game, he played 40 percent of the snaps. Look for him to work in the pass game if he has the green light and makes for a sneaky 2k play on DraftKings because he has six-plus target upside. On the season, the Redskins are giving up 8.45 targets per game to running backs, just a 22nd percentile score.
If Adams and Sproles play, I have no interest in Clement. If Adams misses, Clement should be in a smash spot to play 50 plus percent of the snaps. While Adams has played more and more snaps, they have come at the expense of Smallwood, while Clements roll has not changed. At 2,600 and 7,500 on Drafkings and Fanduel, Clement is a wait and see what the status is of Adams, and becomes a captain consideration on DK if Adams misses.
Redskins Running Game
The Redskins have run out of offensive linemen in the last few weeks, and it has strongly impacted Peterson, whose last four games have been 1.9, 3.6, 3.2, and 2.9 yards per carry performances. The Eagles run defense has fallen off a cliff of late, now surrendering 4.89 yards per carry, but it is their best unit. They have been a pass funnel all year, giving up just 16.34 carries per game, 94th percentile. Peterson is a complete fade for me, with bad gamescript, backup linemen, and Chris Thompson coming back.
My favorite value play of the slate, Chris Thompson, is finally fully healthy and takes on an Eagles team that is giving up over eight targets per game to running backs. Thompson has been healthy in two games where the Redskins were trailing throughout, and he has 22 targets in those two games. He is incredibly underpriced with a gamescript that favors him. He is my favorite value captain play on Draftkings and is a near lock button play on this slate.
The Eagles traded for Golden Tate and it has thrown the offense for a loop. No receiver since the trade has seen more than 14 percent of the targets and Agholor’s target share has dropped 13 percent since the trade! So far in 2018, the Redskins have funneled the most targets in the league to opposing WR3s, most often players who run their routs out of the slot. While Tate’s targets have been rough to watch, he may be a sneaky play in this one.
My order of receivers that interest me the most
- Golden Tate
- Alshon Jeffrey
- Nelson Agholor
The Eagles No. 1 receiver is Zach Ertz and he is the Eagles weapon I want the most exposure to. He leads the team in target share at 25 percent since Golden Tate has arrived and is third on the team in air yards seeing 23 percent of the air yards. Since Wentz has come back, Ertz has seen a ridiculous 34.1 percent of the red zone targets. The Redskins are not an easy matchup for Ertz, but his volume and touchdown upside makes him a very strong play.
This is a tough situation to evaluate not knowing who is going to play. Crowder’s log abscence may finally end and if it does, it likely knocks Trey Quinn out of consideration. If Crowder is out, Quinn is in play, but he was in a walking boot all day Sunday.
Since Colt McCoy has taken the job, Doctson has seen 30 percent of the targets, a 13 aDot, and 14.3 percent of the red zone targets. He is clearly the Redskins top target and the Eagles have been decimated by opponents top receivers this year. Teams WR1 are averaging 95.3 yards, 0.5 TDs, and see 26 percent of the targets. Doctson makes for a strong play, especially on Fanduel where he is mispriced.
He gets a big bump if Crowder and Trey Quin are out, but he is still in play even if they play. With Colt McCoy under center, Harris has an aDot of 16 yards and has seen 19 percent of the air yards the previous three weeks. He is the big-play threat, going up against a team that without Jalen Mills and gives up an explosive pass 20.3 percent of the time. He is an excellent salary saver who could have a few big plays Monday night.
He needs both Quinn and Crowder to be out to be in consideration, but with Thompson back, he is likely fifth in the pecking order. I will pass.
Reed now has upside with Colt McCoy under center. He gets a two percent target share boost, but his aDot has jumped two yards, and he has seen a ridiculous 42.9 percent of the red zone targets with McCoy on the field. He has an extremly tough matchup against an Eagles team that only allows 11 percent of the total targets against them to go to tight ends. I prefer Reed on FanDuel because of touchdown upside and price, and don’t expect him to be PPR gold tonight.
I much prefer the Eagles defense tonight at home in a game I expect them to control. I don’t have any interest in Redskins defense.
I prefer Elliott to Hopkins, as always the home team projected to win sets up for better gamescript for a kicker.
Eliot Crist is the Sports Product Manager for The Quant Edge.He is a fantasy analyst with a background in scouting, analytics, and fantasy research. Formerly he has contributed at PFF, 4for4, Bleacher Report, Powerhour, and NDT Scouting. Eliot combines watching tape with analytics to try and take angles that other analysts aren’t to gain an edge for you.