Regression to Mean | Why it’s smart to invest in Noah Syndergaard’s stock

Regression to Mean | Why it’s smart to invest in Noah Syndergaard’s stock

Hello Friends! Signs of regression could once again be seen last week as our positive regression candidates combined for 12 extra-base hits including six home runs while our pitchers to fade allowed 23 total earned runs in four starts. Lets’ dig into this week’s Regression to the Mean group, which includes Jason Heyward, Brandon Crawford, Noah Syndergaard and more!

Jorge Soler

Batted Ball Metrics Baseline Form Past 14 Days Difference
Distance 222 feet 240 feet +18 feet
Hard Hit Rate 42.3% 48.7% +6.4%
Fly Ball % 39.6% 48.6% +9.0%
Ground Ball % 43.6% 35.1.% -8.5%

The Kansas City outfielder has been on a power streak with five home runs produced in his last 13 games but with the Royals sitting in last place, his recent surge has not been publicized. Take advantage of the lack of attention by utilizing Soler as a low owned one-off option this week!

Brandon Crawford

Batted Ball Metrics Baseline Form Past 14 Days Difference
Distance 203 feet 227 feet +24 feet
Hard Hit Rate 36.3% 53.1% +16.8%
Exit Velocity 91 mph 95 mph +4 mph
Soft Contact % 18.7% 6.3% -12.4%

The Giants’ shortstop has really been struggling with the bat this year but something has clicked recently. In his last 12 games, Crawford has produced five extra-base hits including three home runs while all his batted ball metrics have seen a favorable spike. Fire up this veteran as a cheap option, especially when the Giants are on the road!

Miguel Sano

Batted Ball Metrics Baseline Form Past 14 Days Difference
Distance 217 feet 256 feet +39 feet
Hard Hit Rate 42.5% 56% +13.5%
Exit Velocity 92 mph 94 mph +2 mph
Fly Ball % 41.2% 60.0% +18.8%

Despite dealing with injuries this season, Sano’s development has been encouraging, especially in the power department. In his last 44 plate appearances, the Twins’ slugger has produced four home runs and eight total extra-base hits, which correlates well with increases in fly ball percentage, distance, and hard-hit rate. Make sure to include Sano in your lineups this weekend against an overall struggling Tigers’ staff!

Jason Heyward

Batted Ball Metrics Baseline Form Past 14 Days Difference
Distance 196 feet 236 feet +40 feet
Hard Hit Rate 29.6% 46.9% +17.3%
Exit Velocity 88 mph 95 mph +7 mph
Soft Contact % 25.7% 9.4% -16.3%

It has been a long time since we have seen a vintage form of Heyward in Chicago but in his last 51 plate appearances, the Cubs’ outfielder has produced a .293 average and three home runs. With his daily fantasy price cheap around the industry, this week would be the best time to take advantage of Heyward’s hot streak!

Noah Syndergaard

After an uneven first half of the season, most of the public is disappointed with “Thor” but we should feel confident the Mets’ right-hander can turn it around soon.

The first sign of future positive regression can be seen through his skill-based metrics. Despite the slow start, Syndergaard’s 11.7% swinging strike rate is close to his career percentage (13.2%) and his 3.82 Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (SIERA) gives us a better indication his stuff is still above-average. When considering his overall strikeout production (77 strikeouts in 12 starts), we should confident Thor’s talent is still there.

Negative recency bias can also be considered premature when examining the 26-year old’s batted ball profile. For his career, Syndergaard’s Left On Base Percentage stands at 73.8% which allows us to treat his current 64.7% as a data outlier. Yes, his 31.8% hard-hit rate is a little concerning when compared to his career 26.1% mark but it’s unlikely hitters will continue squaring up on the ball since there has only been a small dip in ground ball percentage.

Overall, don’t be afraid to invest in Thor’s stock in all fantasy formats. We should take advantage of any negative recency bias especially since most of his struggles this season can be attributed to bad luck with runners on base.

Dakota Hudson

The Cardinals’ starter has only been in the rotation this season so let’s examine Hudson’s career metrics to get a better idea what kind of pitcher he likely is.

In 86.2 innings pitched since 2018, Hudson has produced an average 9.2% swinging strike rate and an ugly 4.85 SIERA, which gives us reasons to be skeptical of his stuff against major league hitting. When narrowed down to this current season, Hudson has already allowed 94 base-runners (through walks and hits) in 59.1 innings which means he is constantly pitching under stress.

With runners constantly on base, it is only a matter of time before Hudson’s 3.94 Earned Run Average regresses this season! Take advantage by stacking against this pitcher especially with left-handed bats!

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