Regression to Mean | Is Paul Goldschmidt rounding back into form?

Regression to Mean | Is Paul Goldschmidt rounding back into form?

Hello Friends! In fantasy baseball, we are always trying to stay ahead of the competition by fading slumping players while capturing others in prime form. Let’s take a look at reasons why regression will make an impact on this week’s group including Asdrubal Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt,  Jackie Bradley Jr., and others!

Kyle Seager

Batted Ball Metrics Baseline Form Past 14 Days Difference
Distance 229 feet 237 feet +8 feet
Hard Hit Rate 37% 41% +4%
Exit Velocity 93 mph 95 mph +2 mph
Fly Ball% 44.6% 59.1% +14.5%

The Seattle third baseman has really been struggling with a wrist injury this season but signs of positive regression are emerging. In the past two weeks, the 31-year old has mashed four home runs, which correlates well with jumps in fly ball percentage, distance, and hard-hit rate. In addition to his recent form, Seager has been overall seeing the ball well in 2019, best supported by his 12.7% walk percentage and improved on-base percentage.

Take advantage of the always relevant West Coast bias in daily fantasy by firing up a low-owned Seager in tournaments this week!

Asdrubal Cabrera

Batted Ball Metrics Baseline Form Past 14 Days Difference
Distance 217 feet 235 feet +18 feet
Hard Hit Rate 35% 46.2% +11.2%
Exit Velocity 91 mph 95 mph +4 mph
Line Drive % 18% 33% +15%

In the past two weeks, the Texas third baseman’s hot streak has not really been publicized despite accumulating a .383 batting average and 18 total hits. As we see in the table above, all his batted balls metrics have increased, which relates well with his five extra-base hits produced during this time period. Further signs of positive regression can be seen in Cabrera’s boost in on-base percentage (last 14 days .482) and high amount walks drawn (9 walks in his last 47 at-bats).

With a sneaky spot in the batting order usually around the sixth spot, make sure to utilize Cabrera this week, especially with the Rangers playing in offensive friendly environments (Fenway Park and Great American Ball Park)!

Paul Goldschmidt

Batted Ball Metrics Baseline Form Past 14 Days Difference
Hard Hit Rate 45.7% 55.9% +10.2%
Exit Velocity 94 mph 95 mph +1 mph
Distance 230 feet 225 feet -5 feet
Fly Ball % 36.4% 32.4% -4.0%

The Cardinals’ first baseman has really struggled after a hot start this season but advanced metrics would suggest the St. Louis slugger is rounding back into form. In his past 12 games, Goldschmidt has produced a .286 average and three extra-base hits, which correlates well with the large jump in hard-hit rate and other batted ball statistics reverting closer to baseline marks.

With the six-time All-Star seeing and hitting the ball well again, it’s only a matter of time before Goldie goes on another power streak! Fire him up in every format!

Jackie Bradley Jr.

Batted Ball Metrics Baseline Form Past 14 Days Difference
Hard Hit Rate 40.8% 44.8% +4.0%
Exit Velocity 92 mph 94 mph +2 mph
Distance 215 feet 230 feet +15 feet
Fly Ball % 36.3% 37.9% +1.6%

Overall, 2019 has been an extremely frustrating season for the Boston center-fielder, but his recent performance has been encouraging. In Bradley Jr.’s last 48 plate appearances, the 29-year old has produced a .308 batting average, seven extra-base hits including two home runs, and all his batted ball metrics have seen a boost.

With a favorable schedule this week (Rangers and Orioles), the speedy outfielder should be a low owned piece of an otherwise popular stack. Grab a piece of this elite offense by firing up Bradley Jr. in daily fantasy!

Jason Vargas

I will admit this regression candidate is rather obvious but I need to ensure people are aware of how lucky this veteran’s current season has played out.

In 45.1 innings pitched in 2019, Vargas has produced a dull 7.4% swinging strike rate and 5.05 Skilled Interactive Earned Run Average (SIERA) which is actually worse than his career 8.6% swinging strike rate and 4.54 SIERA. When considering his fluky 80.0% Left On Base Percentage (career 73.2%), lack of command (3.77 BB/9), and rising hard-hit rate (40.1%), it’s a guarantee this Mets’ starter will be shelved soon.

Ignore the deceiving 3.57 Earned Run Average and stack against this left-hander ASAP starting tonight with the Yankees!

Jordan Lyles

When first examining Lyles’ 2019, it may appear the Pirates’ pitcher recently has made some successful changes but after a closer look, there are several reasons to be concerned about his future performance.

The first sign of trouble can be seen through Lyles’ fluky strikeout ability. Over a 152 inning sample size since 2018, the 28-year old starter has produced a 10.1% swinging strike rate, which is unlikely to sustain his current strikeout rate (9.23 K/9). Further evidence of strikeout regression can be supported by Lyles’ career 8.0% swinging strike rate and 16.8% strikeout percentage.

Future regression can also be found when examining his batted ball statistics. For his career, Lyles’ Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) stands at .308, which allows us to believe his current .286 BABIP will jump soon. When considering a hard-hit rate that is 4.1% higher than his career mark, we should feel confident this veteran will eventually revert back to his career averages. Treat Lyles as a league average starter going forward!

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