In today’s Pitching Preview, we are going to analyze the best pitchers to use and pick on today in MLB DFS, including why you should load up on Chris Sale and Caleb Smith and why you should attack Jake Arrieta and Mike Fiers.
Pitchers to Use
People are going to see the matchup with the Yankees and be scared off. I am here to tell you that the matchup vs the Yankees is actually one of the best matchups a left-handed pitcher can have. They rank third in K rate, 23rd in ISO and 24th in wRC+.
Enter Chris Sale who has the lowest SIERA on the slate at 3.11 and the highest K rate at 34%. This is a spot I am paying a premium for.
I think I have played K-Leb every single start he has had this year. That won’t change for me here. There is a lack of value pitching options on this slate that actually make you feel good. There is a cheap stack on DraftKings we will get to that will allow you to play both studs if you want.
The Padres are going to roll out all righties. That shouldn’t be an issue as Smith has a 35% K rate, 0.95 whip and 3.5 xFIP to righties. The Padres may hit a homer or two here, but they will strike out a bunch as they have struck out 27% against lefties.
German Marquez (FD only)
On DraftKings, just play Smith at the same price. On FanDuel though, Marquez is over 2k cheaper. Marquez has the third lowest SIERA on the slate, only behind Sale and Smith. Marquez is a ground ball guy, allowing over 50% ground balls to both sides of the plate. This helps him succeed at Coors. The Blue Jays have been pretty bad this year too, as they rank fifth in K rate, 21st in ISO and 27th in wRC+ against righties.
If you need a punt to fit in the big bats, Cashner is your guy. He has actually dominated left-handed bats, and the Giants are going to load up on them here. He has allowed zero homers, 22% K rate, only 31% hard contact and 55% ground balls. Cashner has some factors pointing in his favor here that we can take a shot on at a complete punt salary.
Pitchers to Pick On
I have no clue what DraftKings was doing when they priced the Astros against Fiers. You can stack them up and get two stud arms pretty easily.
The righties are the main focus here as Fiers has allowed 50% fly balls, 43% hard contact, a 5.86 xFIP and 2.1 HR/9 to righties. Even though the Astros are missing Springer and Altuve, they are still in play because of their cheap prices. As a team they rank sixth in ISO.
When Edwin Jackson pitches in Toronto, we want to load up against him. Now, he is pitching in Coors here. How many Rockies is too many Rockies? That will be the question on this slate. Edwin is really bad as he has a 5.1 SIERA, a 1.6 whip and is only striking out 12% of hitters. Guys who pitch to contact in Coors usually get blown up.
Mahle has actually been solid this year, but this is a spot we can pick on him with lefties in the small park. Mahle has allowed 2.3 HR/9, a 1,5 whip, 43% hard contact, only 38% ground balls and only 18% K rate. A recipe for disaster as a pitcher in Cinci is to allow a ton of hard contact in the air, and that is what Mahle does to lefties.
The Red Sox are hitting lefties pretty well after their slow start to the year. Pair that with the fact that they are righty-heavy and Happ has really struggled with righties and you have a good spot to load up.
Happ has already allowed 13 homers to right-handed bats this year. He also has an xFIP of 5.0 and only a 30% ground ball rate while allowing 41% hard contact to righties as well.
This is one of my favorite tournament spots of the night. The Dodgers will go lefty-heavy and Arrieta has quietly been bad against lefties. Another thing to note is the Dodgers hit sinker ballers extremely well and that is Arrieta’s main pitch.
To lefties, Arrieta has allowed 2 HR/9, only a 14% K rate, 5.88 xFIP, only 39% ground balls and 41% hard contact. The Dodgers are on fire right now too and they destroy all righties at home. They should go overlooked here. Don’t let that happen.
Matt Dickason has been playing DFS NFL, MLB and NBA for 3 years now. I have been in season long football leagues since the age of 10, so football has always been a passion of mine. Outside of fantasy sports, I played baseball for 19 years including college and eventually Semi-Pro. MLB and NFL are my two strongest sports when it comes to betting and DFS.