We have a handful of guys at the top of the pricing scale that have solid strikeout upside. Can we trust a rookie at the top in Chris Paddack or should we trust a proven veteran in Trevor Bauer?
Pitchers to Use
Trevor Bauer doesn’t have the underlying stats that he had last year, but he has still been very good from a fantasy perspective. Part of this is because of his ability to pitch extremely deep into games. He has nine starts this year in which he has thrown over 110 pitches. So while he only has a 26% K rate this year, and is giving up more runs than last year, his ability to pitch an extra inning or two is offsetting those factors when compared to everyone else. He doesn’t have to have a perfect outing to be good enough to pay up for.
The matchup here is solid too as the Reds strikeout around 25%, with an ISO of .174 and wRC+ of 80. Bauer is the guy I am going for at the top.
Pricing note: I still prefer him where he is the highest priced guy on FanDuel, however, I don’t mind saving some salary and going with Castillo or Paddack on FanDuel either if you need to.
Means is the midrange option I have interest in on this slate. The Blue Jays strike out around 24%, with a .146 ISO and 76 wRC+ against lefties. Means has been a really solid pitcher this year as well. He sports a lower K rate, but he isn’t going to beat himself as he only walks 6% of hitters, leading to his low whip of 1.07. He hasn’t been giving up many homers either as he is only allowing 1 HR/9.
Hudson is the cheap arm I want on this slate. He absolutely dominates right-handed bats, and he is going to see seven righties tonight. He has a 3.76 xFIP, 1.08 whip, 0.25 HR/9, 24% hard contact and 73% (!!) ground ball rate against righties. On top of that, Hudson faces the lowly Marlins in the graveyard of Marlins Park.
Pitchers to Pick On
It may be time to just play the Twins every single slate no matter who they are facing. Tonight, they get the luxury of facing Mike Leake, who just isn’t very good. He is allowing 2 HR/9, 40% hard contact, a 4.68 SIERA and is only striking out 16% of hitters. The Twins are going to put the ball in play and they have tons of power throughout the order.
The Nats have hit lefties really well this year, sporting a .192 ISO and 117 wRC+. Banuelos has the third worst SIERA on the slate at 5.29. He is also allowing 2.5 HR/9, walking 14% of hitters, a whip of 1.8, and only a 34% ground ball rate. The White Sox pen can be hit around too, making the Nats a top stack.
I am expecting the two Coors stacks to be pretty popular here with Quintana and Lambert on the mound. The Cubs should be the chalk of the slate as Lambert has historically pitched to contact, and that is not something that bodes well in Coors. The one thing going for him is his solid ground ball rate over 50%, but that shouldn’t keep you off of the Cubs here.
The Rockies have some guys who mash lefties that could get to Quintana as well. They are starting to get healthy as well with Blackmon back in the lineup.
One of these days, Vargas is going to get blasted. His SIERA sits at 5.05 while his ERA sits at 3.57. His HR/FB% is also sitting below 10%, which it hasn’t been that low for Vargas in years. He is still allowing hard fly balls, he has just been on the lucky side. The wind is blowing out at 10-15 mph in the short porch of Yankee Stadium tonight, so I think we could see a bit of a home run derby here.
Matt Dickason has been playing DFS NFL, MLB and NBA for 3 years now. I have been in season long football leagues since the age of 10, so football has always been a passion of mine. Outside of fantasy sports, I played baseball for 19 years including college and eventually Semi-Pro. MLB and NFL are my two strongest sports when it comes to betting and DFS.