Pitchers to Use
Sale has returned to his dominant form and he has the highest K upside on this slate, especially pitching against the Orioles. I don’t want to quote his stats because they’re skewed by how bad his first few starts were. However, he has double-digit strikeouts in two of his last three outings. He is your pay up over Kershaw.
Gray has turned a corner this year and he looks really good. He has a SIERA of 3.6 and an xFIP of 3.33. To go with that, he has a barrel rate of 4%, a whiff rate of 25% and a ground ball rate of 55%. All of these numbers tell us to lock him in on DK, and he should be in consideration on FD as well as he is priced down on both sites, which allows you to fit in bats.
This is a DK only play as I prefer Sonny at the same price. Gibson and Sonny is the double midrange pairing if you can’t find a way to fit Sale (but I would try to fit Sale).
Gibson has a mediocre SIERA of 4.2 and an xFIP of 3.95. These don’t instill confidence, but they aren’t awful. The Blue Jays will also strike out a ton and Gibson has a whiff rate of 29%, which is one of the highest on the slate. This is as cheap as I would go on DK and I would just play Sonny over Kyle on FD.
Pitchers to Pick On
Cashner isn’t very good and he runs into a buzzsaw here vs the Red Sox, who are swinging hot bats. He has a SIERA of 4.94 and an xFIP of 4.93. To go with that, he’s allowing 1.5 HR/9 and isn’t striking anyone out. The only concern that comes with stacking against Cashner is he can be a ground ball heavy guy but that won’t keep me off the Red Sox stack here.
Folty has been pretty bad out of the gate. Now, he faces one of the best right-handed hitting teams in the league in the Dodgers. Folty has the third highest SIERA on the slate at 4.9 and the highest xFIP by a good margin at 5.7. He is allowing a ton of barrels, has high x stats and isn’t generating many whiffs at only 19%. The Dodgers are the late night hammer.
Urena is always a guy I like to pick on as he doesn’t strike many guys out and gives up a lot of hard contact. He also has a ton of issues pitching to lefties as he has a 5.52 xFIP to lefties and a 51% hard contact rate to them as well. This is important to note because the Cubs will go left-handed heavy. Don’t be afraid to include a righty like Kris Bryant though.
The Astros just let everyone down against Duffy, so this is a spot to hop back on. Lopez hasn’t been good as he has a SIERA and xFIP of 4.5 each. He’s also giving up 41% hard contact to righties and 35% to lefties. The Astros have a ton of power bats and the KC bullpen is bad if they can get to Lopez early.
Holland is a fly ball pitcher pitching in Coors. That is a recipe for disaster. I expect Arenado and Story to be mega chalk, and for good reason. Holland gives up a ton of homers to righties and I don’t expect that to change here. However, you may be better off using Story and Arenado as one-offs instead of full stacking to be different. I expect the Rockies to be really popular.
Matt Dickason has been playing DFS NFL, MLB and NBA for 3 years now. I have been in season long football leagues since the age of 10, so football has always been a passion of mine. Outside of fantasy sports, I played baseball for 19 years including college and eventually Semi-Pro. MLB and NFL are my two strongest sports when it comes to betting and DFS.