Pitchers to Use
Justin Verlander (DK only)
While I really like Verlander in this matchup, he is only in play on DK for me due to price. There are some high upside pitching options that can match Verlander for less salary. The nice thing that Verlander brings to the table is his floor. But if playing tourneys, I want to take a chance on a cheaper arm having just as big of a game at a cheaper salary, allowing for more bats.
Verlander’s whiff rate is great at 30%, but that number isn’t high enough that we have to have Verlander at his salary tonight, especially with the midrange options available.
Corbin is priced only $1k less than Verlander on DK, however, he is $2400 less on FD. His whiff rate is the same as Verlander’s at 30% and he gets a Mets team that hits righties much better than lefties, as they strike out at the fifth highest rate against lefties (28%).
Corbin also sports a very respectable 3.72 SIERA and 3.86 xFIP. Fire up Corbin with confidence on FD, but if you can find the extra $1k on DK, I prefer Verlander. Corbin is still in play on DK though if you need the salary off Verly.
ERod is very interesting tonight, as he isn’t priced up, but instead is in the midrange on both sites. He is sporting an elite whiff rate of 30%, a SIERA of 3.99 and an xFIP of 3.76. While the Rockies are dangerous against lefties (.211 ISO), they also strikeout at the sixth highest rate against lefties (27%).
This is a tourney only play as ER0d can blow up on any slate. If he goes overlooked though, he is a very intriguing option.
I am willing to pay the midrange price for Beeks on DK, and he is literally free on FD, allowing you to fit any bat you want. I expect him to be really popular, but for good reason. He gets the Marlins in Marlins Park and he is sporting a whiff rate of 27% this year. There is some upside for Beeks here and he is priced low enough that he is inherently safe.
Pitchers to Pick On
Stack Astros against bad Tigers starter and bullpen. Rinse and repeat. Soto has only pitched four innings above AA ball and he now faces the hottest team in the league. In his first start, he had an xFIP of 7.3 and a whiff rate of only 8%. The whiff rate is the most concerning part against a team that has power throughout the order and doesn’t strike out. The only downside here is the Astros will be really popular once again.
This is a great full stack as a pivot off of the Astros full stack. Wacha has been really bad this year with a 5.1 SIERA and a 1.7 HR/9. He also sports a 1.6 whip to both sides of the plate, so expect the Braves to have base runners all game long in their hitter-friendly park.
The Braves will roll out a lefty-heavy lineup and Wacha has given up 45% hard contact and only 31% ground balls to lefties this year. That is a recipe for disaster. Don’t sleep on the righties either though, as he has surrendered five homers to righties already.
The Rangers make for another awesome full stack pivot off the Astros here. I think I give them the slight edge over the Braves if I had to choose between the two just because the Royals bullpen is much worse than the Cardinals pen.
Lopez has allowed a whip of 1.8 to lefties and the Rangers will go lefty heavy. His HR/9 to lefties is a whopping 3.2 and he has allowed 37% hard contact and only 33% ground balls to lefties as well.
Pair all of this with his xBA of .283, xSLG of .538, .381 xwOBA and only a 22% whiff rate and you have a great spot to stack the Rangers.
I think the Brewers go completely overlooked here and that is a mistake. Everyone always depicts Arrieta as a massive ground ball guy. This is true until you look at the splits against lefties. His ground ball rate drops from 58% to 39% from righty to lefty. His HR/9 also jumps up from 0.94 to 2.11 from righty to lefty. Lastly, his xFIP jumps from 3.89 to 5.84 from righty to lefty.
The Brewers will go left-handed heavy here with a ton of power. Arrieta is in for a rough one.
Matt Dickason has been playing DFS NFL, MLB and NBA for 3 years now. I have been in season long football leagues since the age of 10, so football has always been a passion of mine. Outside of fantasy sports, I played baseball for 19 years including college and eventually Semi-Pro. MLB and NFL are my two strongest sports when it comes to betting and DFS.