Pitchers to Use
If you have a super cheap stack you like, then I like the idea of fitting Sale in. However, there are some more expensive stacks in good spots, which makes justifying paying down for Smith a solid tourney option to afford more bats. Sale has double-digit strikeouts in three of his last four games, so he is finally back to form.
K-Leb Smith has been a beast this year. He has a SIERA of 2.99 to go with his xFIP of 2.98, which are the lowest on the slate. He also has a zone contact rate of only 74% and a whiff rate of 35%. All of these numbers are near league best in every category for starting pitchers. We play K-Leb every time he’s pitching, and that doesn’t change here even against the Rays.
Musgrove has been bad his last two starts. However, that is not the true pitcher he is. He is a solid arm and has shown that until recently. He is priced way down and that is something we can take advantage of here due to recency bias.
He has a respectable 4.4 SIERA and xFIP to go with a 25% whiff rate. His DK price is criminal and I love him as an SP2, even in a tough matchup with Arizona. He has handled some tough matchups on multiple occasions this year.
Pitchers to Pick On
The Astros are, by far, the top stack on this slate. Carpenter is really really bad. The Tigers pen behind Carpenter is also really bad. The last game Carpenter started, the Angels scored double-digit runs. He sports an xFIP of 5.4 at AAA and that’s just bad.
Miller sports the worst SIERA on the slate at 6.45. He also has an extremely low whiff rate of only 16% and an xBA of .285. The Royals thrive against pitchers who don’t overpower them as they have speed and power throughout the order. This is a great tourney spot.
Folty has really struggled out of the gate. He has even struggled against right-handed bats, which the Cardinals have a ton of. His SIERA is fourth worst on the slate at 5.65 and pitching in Atlanta is a hitter-friendly environment. His whiff rate is also down at 21% after sitting around 25% last year.
Anderson is due for some massive regression soon as his ERA is only 4.19 while his SIERA sits at 5.55. The Mariners also are one of the best teams in the league at hitting left-handed pitching. The only issue is Seattle’s park isn’t the most hitter-friendly, making this a tourney only spot.
Lefties are destroying Hellickson this year as he has a 6.68 xFIP to that side of the plate to go with a 3.8 HR/9 and only a 13% K rate. The Mets will go lefty-heavy here and can be stacked up with Alonso too.
Matt Dickason has been playing DFS NFL, MLB and NBA for 3 years now. I have been in season long football leagues since the age of 10, so football has always been a passion of mine. Outside of fantasy sports, I played baseball for 19 years including college and eventually Semi-Pro. MLB and NFL are my two strongest sports when it comes to betting and DFS.