Pitchers to Use
Degrom, Cole and Scherzer are all extremely close for me. They all have SIERAs of 3.14 or lower and they all have K rates in the 30s. The one thing Degrom has on this slate that the other two don’t is a home matchup with the Marlins. Vegas agrees with me as the Marlins have the lowest implied run total I think I’ve ever seen at 2.2 runs…
That is the reason I give him the edge over the other two big arms, but in tourneys you absolutely can play the other two at likely lower ownership.
If you can’t find a way to fit Degrom, Desclafani is the guy I would target in the next tier. He has a 3.86 SIERA and sports a 28% K rate. He also gets a good matchup against the Giants in San Francisco.
Gausman turned a corner this year as he throws his splitter more. It has bumped up his whiff rate to 30% after being 25% last year. All of his x stats are much lower this year as well and he has a SIERA of 4.15 to go with them. The DBacks are a bit cold right now as well.
Pitchers to Pick On
Alcantara really struggles with lefties as he has only struck out 12% of lefties and has allowed 1.5 HR/9 to them as well. The Mets just went nuclear against a better pitcher in Pablo Lopez, so I think we could see another solid offensive outing here as the Mets can go lefty heavy.
Kelly has quietly been bad this year. His SIERA is fourth worst on the slate and he gets a bad matchup with the Braves. The roof should be open again here which will help the ball travel a bit further. Both sides of the plate are in play here as Kelly hasn’t been good against either handedness.
Stewart had a 4.88 xFIP last year in the majors and has a 4.86 this year in the minors. He just isn’t very good and the Tigers will be able to load up right handed bats against him.
This is the chalky spot, but for good reason. Smyly sports a 4.6 SIERA, a 1.73 whip, and a 2.4 Hr/9. Facing the Astros in Houston is not a task he should be able to conquer.
Matt Dickason has been playing DFS NFL, MLB and NBA for 3 years now. I have been in season long football leagues since the age of 10, so football has always been a passion of mine. Outside of fantasy sports, I played baseball for 19 years including college and eventually Semi-Pro. MLB and NFL are my two strongest sports when it comes to betting and DFS.