Paeno’s Process – Wild Card Weekend

Paeno’s Process – Wild Card Weekend

Life hit me hard recently, so I apologize for not being able to write my thoughts on the wild card slate as early as I planned. Having said that, I am all the more motivated to crush this wild card slate and hopefully see all of you at the top of the leaderboards!

Reminder: Playoff DFS is a lot like playing the prime time slates. Pivoting is extremely important in a two-day, four-game slate like this – especially for the lineups that are drawing dead. On a small slate, you better go big or go home, so have conviction about your player pool this weekend.

With that in mind, here are some of my thoughts and favorite plays for the wild card slate:

Andrew Luck – Highest floor-ceiling combo. Has scored 27 and 39.66 DK in two meetings with the Texans this year and has attempted 103 – granted 62 came from the Week 4 overtime shootout. I like the Colts to beat the Texans straight-up and think their offensive line is stout enough, especially with Ryan Kelly returning, to give Luck enough time to pick apart the Texans middling secondary. I prefer to stack him with TY Hilton, Eric Ebron, and Nyheim Hines out of the backfield.

X-Factor for Luck’s success: Luck has been phenomenal this year. Luck has a PFF grade of 91.8 against the blitz, just slightly lower than his 92.2 rating with no pressure – but only a 63.6 rating when facing pressure without blitzing. If the Texans are going to have any success against him, it will be with pressure with Clowney and Watt — not with the blitz.