Paeno’s Process | NFL Divisional Round Edition

Paeno’s Process | NFL Divisional Round Edition

Much like prime-time slates, playoff NFL DFS is not the time to play scared – it’s the time to be bold. Believe in your process, trust your instincts, and then let the cards fall where they may. That was my advice all year during my “Prime Time Process” pod and that’s my advice to you now. I think it’s important to win (or lose) on your own terms. Do it your way.

With that in mind, here are some of my thoughts and convictions for the divisional round…

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Note: My analysis is much heavier on running back because I think it’s imperative to get that position right on this slate.

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Quarterback
After much internal debate, I will likely split my quarterback exposure to Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees. However, I feel a lot more comfortable keeping the PMR open for the Sunday night hammer, especially since I’m expecting the Saints to buck their regular season trend of playing ball-control offense and expect them to deploy an aerial assault against the Eagles overmatched secondary. If the Saints can keep pressure off Brees (looking at you Terron Armstead), then I expect the Saints to throttle the Eagles.

Core: Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes

Thoughts on Andrew Luck – I like Luck if the Chiefs offense can score early and often, but I have a suspicion that the Colts will try to control the ball and ram it down the Chiefs’ throat – which would lead to a perfect game script for Marlon Mack and their mauling offensive line led by Quinton Nelson. If they are successful and Mack scores 1-2 TDs then Luck’s ceiling is much lower than Mahomes.

Bottom line: While I like Mahomes, Luck, and Brees I think Mahomes and Brees offer the most upside.

Fringe play:

Jared Goff has not played well as of late, especially when under pressure, but he’s interesting at his price. If he can hit 300 yards and two TDs you’ll probably be in pretty good shape if you use the savings correctly at other positions. While the Cowboys defense has been incredibly strong all year, they are a different team on the road. I think the Rams could control this game and if they do – Goff and Gurley make an intriguing stack and a possible avenue to soak up all of the Rams touchdowns.

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