I needed a personal bye week over Thanksgiving, but I’m back, 30-19 on the NFL season, and ready to give you winners for Week 13. This has been a crazy week in terms of news, the first week without byes since Week 3.
If you’ve been rolling with me here all NFL season, you know that I love to isolate individual team totals whenever possible. Sportsbooks are hesitant to post team totals early in the week because they know they’re vulnerable numbers. The sportsbook that I use typically posts them on Saturday evening, and they’re worth the wait. This week, I don’t have any straight Over/Under that I love more than these five individual team totals, so here they are. Let’s dig in.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OVER 25.5
If you listened to this week’s episode of Move The Line, you know I’m all over this Bucs team as a live home dog. Carolina’s in a bit of a tailspin, but I’ve thought they’re overrated all season. I’m going to continue to short them.
The Panthers have allowed their opponents to exceed their team total in seven of 11 games this season. NFL teams are scoring a touchdown on 75 percent of their red zone appearances this season, the second-worst rate in the league, and they’re among the bottom 10 in both yards and points per drive allowed. For all of their defensive flaws, the Bucs have shown an aggressive, vertical-threatening offense all season long, and they have a plethora of options to exploit Carolina here. This is my favorite play of the week.
Indianapolis Colts – OVER 25.5
The Colts disappointed a bit last week at home against Miami, falling short of their team total for the first time since Week 3, but squeaking out a narrow victory nonetheless. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has allowed their opponent to exceed its team total in six of the last seven weeks. They’ve had a tumultuous week, losing to Buffalo will do that to you, and there’s a chance they’ll be without CB Jalen Ramsey this week as well.
Jacksonville is not getting pressure on the quarterback like they did last year, and in turn, are not turning their opponents over at all, ranking 26th in turnover rate this season. The Colts have protected Andrew Luck like he’s the gold at Fort Knox, and they haven’t been held under this number since Week 5 against New England. I’d bet this anywhere under 28.
Jacksonville Jaguars – UNDER 21.5
I’m not buying into the narrative that the Jaguars will ride an emotional wave into this one due to the quarterback change, a story that I’ve heard multiple times this week. While I’m not certain that Cody Kessler is a substantial downgrade at the position when compared to Blake Bortles, he’s been dealt a difficult hand this week. Jacksonville fired its offensive coordinator and will be without NFL All-Pro OL Andrew Norwell (I.R. due to an ankle injury), and RB Leonard Fournette (suspended for punching a man who was wearing a helmet). I don’t see this team mounting four scoring drives, as this number suggests. Our betting tool shows why playing both of these totals separately is the way to go.
Kansas City Chiefs – OVER 34.75
There’s no doubt that the Chiefs will be dealing with more questions and drama this weekend than they expected, but I don’t think they’ll skip a beat on the field. This line moved from -15 to -14 in the last couple days, and that brought Kansas City’s team total under 35. Fire this with confidence.
Pittsburgh Steelers – OVER 27.25
The Steelers are a different team at home and will get back on track here in a primetime island game with playoff implications. Staying under the key number of 28 is crucial here in my opinion. The Steelers have gone over their team total in four of five home games this season.
Week 11: 3-2
Ryan Noonan utilizes analytics and his knowledge of Football to leverage sportsbooks, fantasy leagues, and DFS. He is a New England native now living in Chicago. You can find more of him @TheQuantEdge and @MoveTheLineTQE