NFL Projections – Odds, fades, best picks for AFC East – The Quant Edge

NFL Projections – Odds, fades, best picks for AFC East – The Quant Edge

The NFL season is nearing, so let’s dive into today’s NFL Projections, where we will discuss the AFC East.

New England Patriots – TT 11 Wins -130 on Over

  • To win their division -600
  • Playoffs – -1150 (biggest Favorite)
  • Super Bowl +700

Big Additions – Michael Bennett, Jamie Collins, Dontrelle Inman, D Thomas, N’Keal Harry, Damien Harris

Big Loses – Trent Brown, Chris Hogan, Gonk, Trey Flowers, Cordarrelle Patterson

  • 2018 Offensive rank – 27.7 PPG 4th 
  • 2018 Defensive rank – 20.4 PPg allowed 6th 
  • 2018 Pace – 69.1 plays per game 2nd 
  • Available targets – 228 targets available (assuming no Josh Gordon)
  • Available touches – 46 carries available

Players I like

Julian Edelman – Last year when Gronk we off the field, Edelman saw 25.5% vs 18% of the team’s targets. He only had one game with 5 targets or less, finishing 12th in targets in the league from Week 5 on and seeing 25% of the Patriots’ targets. 

16 game version of his numbers: 135 targets, 92.5 catches, 1062 yards, 7.5 touchdowns

Sony Michel – Depending on the cost.

He may be a bit game script dependent, but he is on one of the league’s top teams and will be heavily involved. Last season in 16 games (including playoffs), he finished with over 1,200 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. As the season went on, he got the ball more. In the last nine games of the season, Michel averaged 19.3 carries per game. He was a more-than-capable receiver in college and with an entire offseason healthy, look for him to get an uptick in targets in 2019. He is one of the top mid-round value picks off the draft.

He averaged 4.98 YPC when Pats were up by 8 points or more in 2018.

James White – Team high 123 targets last year and still saw 21% of team targets after Edelman came back. His red zone carries jumped from 16.2% to 37.5% without Gronk on the field (more spread). High PPR floor guy. 

Players I am Fading

N’Keal Harry – I don’t draft Rookie WRs at premiums.

Damien Harris – Missed the boat. With Michel and White healthy last season, Burkhead never broke 33% of snaps in six games. 

Late Round Flier 

Josh Gordon – When Gronk was off the field, Gordon saw 24.1% of the targets. If he plays, you have a WR2 for free. 

New York Jets – TT 7 wins -160 on the over

  • To win their division +650
  • Playoffs = Yes +320
  • Super Bowl +60-1
  • New head coach – Adam Gase

Big Additions – Le’Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder, CJ Mosley, Quinnen Williams

Big Loses – James Carpenter, Mike Pennel, Andre Roberts, Jason Myers, Isaiah Crowell

  • 2018 Offensive rank – 20.8 PPG 23rd
  • 2018 Defensive rank – 27.6 PPG 29th 
  • 2018 Pace – 60.7 plays per game 26th 
  • Available targets – 151 targets available 
  • Available touches – 143 carries available

Players I like

Robby Anderson – In the second half of the year, Anderson saw the ninth most air yards in the NFL, a 14.7 aDot, seeing 37% of air yards and 25% of the target share. If Sam Darnold takes the next step, Anderson is in for a big year. Anderson saw 8% more targets when Darnold was QB. 

Players I am Fading

Le’Veon Bell – Adam Gase ran the slowest offense in the league last year, while the year before he was 22nd in plays per game. He now has a worse O-line and an unknown situation. I will take him at the turn or in the second, but in the eighth or ninth spot, I’ll be looking elsewhere.

Late Round Flier

Quincy Enunwa – Cheap upside receiver. Fell off in second half of the season, but fits the Albert Wilson role very well. 

Buffalo Bills – TT 6.5 Wins -170 on Over

  • To win their division +1000
  • Playoffs – Yes +450
  • Super Bowl – 80-1

Big Additions – Ed Oliver, Mitch Morse, TJ Yeldon, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Tyler Kroft, Ty Nsekhe, Cody Ford, Devin Singletary, Frank Gore

Big Loses – Charles Clay, Kyle Williams

  • 2018 Offensive rank – 16.8 PPG 30th  
  • 2018 Defensive rank – 23.4 PPG  19th 
  • 2018 Pace – 63 plays per game 18th 
  • Available targets – 109 targets available, though one was to Kyle Williams lol
  • Available touches – 198 carries available

Players I like

Josh Allen – Lead all QBs in rushing yards (52.6) and rushing TDs (0.67) per game. From Week 12 on he scored less than 19 points just once, and that was versus the Lions, who were the league’s best team at stopping opposing rushing QBs. This is a throw-it-deep-or-scramble QB – poorly made for NFL, but great for fantasy. 

John Brown – Brown had a 17.4-yard aDot with Joe Flacco and is one of the league’s top deep threats. He averaged 17 yards a catch and fits perfectly with Josh Allen. 

Players I am Fading

Everyone else.

Late Round Flier

Robert Foster – Third highest aDot the second half of the year at 20.8. He had strong chemistry with Josh Allen, catching 22 of 33 passes while seeing 27% of team air yards. Big plays and free. 

Miami Dolphins – TT 4.5 -145 on Over

  • To win their division +50000
  • Playoffs – Yes +790 (biggest long shot)
  • Super Bowl 150-1
  • New head coach – Brian Flores

Big Additions – Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Rosen, Eric Rowe, Christian Wilkins, Dwayne Allen

Big Loses – Ryan Tannehill, Cam Wake, Ja’Wuan James, Josh Sitton, Frank Gore, Danny Amendola

  • 2018 Offensive rank – 19.9 PPG 26th 
  • 2018 Defensive rank – 27.1 PPg 27th
  • 2018 Pace – 54.9 plays per game 32nd 
  • Available targets – 95 targets available 
  • Available touches – 189 carries available

Players I like

Kenyan Drake – His ADP is starting to climb and the value may be gone soon. He plays for a bad team (worst in the NFL), but his receiving upside is fantastic. Finished as RB14 last year despite being on the slowest team in the NFL and often playing second fiddle to Frank Gore.

Drake has only touched the ball 20-or-more times three times in his career, and all three he ended up with over 100 yards – 141, 193, and 113

  • 23-120-1, 5-3-21-0
  • 25-114-0, 6-5-79-0
  • 16-78-1, 11-6-35-0

Drake was a dominant receiver last year, averaging 9 yards per catch while scoring 5 TDs through the air. 

Despite lack of volume, he has a 53rd percentile weighted opportunity score. 

Players I am Fading

DeVante Parker – Not buying on a spike in ADP due to offseason reposts again. 

Late Round Flier

Kenny Stills – The Dolphins’ best vertical threat matches very nicely with what Fitzpatrick likes to do. Fitzy averaged 9.62 yards per attempt last year, 92nd percentile score. 

  • 2018 – DJAX with Fitz 15.4% target share, 17.4 aDot
  • 2018 – DJAX without Fitz – 9.5% target share, 19.6 aDot
  • 2018 – Stills averaged 14.95 yards per catch

Albert Wilson – Great RAC receiver, works in the middle of the field nicely, Rosen loves to work the middle of the field.