If you’re looking for a day off from NBA DFS, this is a pretty good day to take it. Not the prettiest of slates, let’s get right to it…
Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat (o/u 210.5, UTA -4)
Utah is 14th in defensive rating, 19th in pace.
Miami is 11th in defensive rating, 10th in pace.
This isn’t the greatest matchup to target in DFS but on a small Sunday slate, there is some appeal. Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson are OUT for Miami.
Donovan Mitchell (FD $7900, DK $7900)
Although Miami is a decent defensive team they struggle to defend ball-handling scoring guards, that is exactly what Mitchell is. In a pace-up spot and strong matchup, Mitchell is an elite target.
Josh Richardson (FD $7800, DK $7200)
I continue to like Richardson has Miami’s de-facto PG with both Tyler Johnson and Goran Dragic OUT. He’s not cheap, and this isn’t an ideal matchup but the usage bump outweighs that.
Dwayne Wade (FD $5700, DK $5300)
Wade sees added minutes and usage with Dragic and Johnson out as he and Josh Richardson are the Miami PGs. Like Richardson, it’s not the greatest matchup but Utah isn’t the defensive presence they have been in years past, Wade’s usage with the second unit offers upside at his price.
ON THE RADAR
Ricky Rubio (FD $6400, DK $6000)
Rubio is interesting here because he carries a decent floor in a pace-up game which offers some upside. He’s priced fairly on both sites.
Rudy Gobert (FD $9000, DK $8400)
Gobert is coming off of massive back to back games, he should be locked into strong minutes and be around the rim all game whenever Whiteside is in the game. Gobert’s price prevents him from being a top target for me.
Jae Crowder (FD $4500, DK $4400)
Crowder is super cheap for someone who plays strong minutes and decent production. His inconsistency keeps him away from the top targets. That being said Crowder offers cap relief with upside.
Hassan Whiteside and Bam Adebayo
The minutes seem to interchange and of late it’s been more of Adebayo. Both warrant consideration in GPPs.
Wayne Ellington, Justise Winslow, and Rodney McGruder
With Derrick Jones Jr OUT all three should see strong minutes. They all carry upside at their price, Ellington is a bit pricey for me but he’s still fine. McGruder is my favorite target of the 3.
Joe Ingles and Derrick Favors FD ONLY
I’d rather spend elsewhere on FD as both are priced a bit high for me with inconsistent minutes. Derrick Favors has some appeal on DK priced at $4600.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Philadelphia 76ers (o/u 212.5, PHI -6.5)
Memphis is fifth in defensive rating, 30th in pace.
Philadelphia is 12th in defensive rating, seventh in pace.
The Grizzlies are always a tricky team to attack in NBA DFS, as they play great defense and purposefully slow. This is a pace-up spot for the Grizzlies, tough matchup for the Sixers. Marc Gasol is QUESTIONABLE. My gut feeling is that Gasol sits this game out.
Jaren Jackson Jr (FD $7000, DK $6300) – IF Gasol is OUT
There is some serious foul trouble risk but Jackson would see a decent usage bump if Gasol doesn’t play in a pace-up game. The Sixers have struggled vs PFs in DFS this year. Jackson carries elite upside.
JaMychal Green (FD $4600, DK $4200) – IF Gasol OUT
Green would see a big minutes bump if Gasol can’t go, he’d offer elite cap relief and upside.
Joel Embiid (FD $11200, DK $10600)
It’s never easy to pay up for studs vs Memphis but on a small slate and with Marc Gasol 50/50, Embiid is a top target on the slate. You can target him with confidence.
ON THE RADAR
Mike Conley (FD $9200, DK $8500)
Mike Conley has been balling of late and his price reflects that. He’s a borderline top play I’m just a bit scared off of his current price.
Shelvin Mack (FD $4000, DK $3600)
Mack would see a minutes bump if Gasol can’t go and would also see blowout minutes if the Sixers run away with it. That is all speculation though, the fact is Mack is super cheap and playing decent minutes in a pace-up spot. I don’t mind him here.
Jimmy Butler – DK ONLY $7400
That’s a solid price for Jimmy even in a tough matchup, he’s worth considering.
Ben Simmons (FD $9400, DK $8600)
This just isn’t the spot I want to pay up for Simmons.
J.J. Redick – Kyle Anderson, Garrett Temple
There are better lower middle priced options to consider on this slate. Two good defensive teams playing at a potentially slow pace isn’t conducive for role players.
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs (o/u 217, SA -1)
Portland is 18th in defensive rating, 18th in pace.
San Antonio is 28th in defensive rating, 25th in pace.
This is an interesting Western Conference matchup of two struggling teams struggling who will likely be battling for a spot in the playoffs.
Jusuf Nurkic (FD $8100, DK $7100)
The pace-down game for Nurkic doesn’t hurt him as he’s less likely to be exposed on the perimeter. This is a good spot for Nurk, the Spurs aren’t a good defensive team.
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD $8100, DK $7600)
Ignoring the revenge game narrative, this is just flat out a good spot for Aldridge at an appealing price. The Blazers struggle versus opposing bigs and playing at home should lead to better numbers for Aldridge. The fact that the Spurs are playing on normal rest is the cherry on top.
DeMar DeRozan (FD $8600, DK $7800)
Similarly to Aldridge, this is just a flat-out good spot for DeRozan. This is a fairly important early season game for the Spurs, I think they lean on DeRozan and Aldridge to guide them to victory. Slight pace-up spot helps DeRozan.
ON THE RADAR
Damian Lillard (FD $9600, DK $9400)
I don’t particularly like Lillard in a pace-down spot on the road at his current price, but the fact remains Lillard tends to show up vs Western Conference playoff foes. He’s worth considering.
Al-Farouq Aminu and Evan Turner
Both are priced similarly in spots I don’t particularly love. That being said they’re both cheap and offer some upside.
Rudy Gay (FD $5800, DK $5400)
His minutes at his price are my only concern as this is a fairly decent spot for Rudy.
C.J. McCollum (FD $6800, DK $6900)
This is not the spot I want to target CJ as he’s a scoring dependent guard in a pace-down game, which affects his peripheral stats.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks (o/u 224, LAC -4)
Los Angeles is 13th in defensive rating, ninth in pace.
Dallas is 11th in defensive rating, 15th in pace.
This is by far the most appealing matchup on the slate for me, and it shows with the highest implied total. Dallas is always a tricky team to target as they have a deep rotation.
Tobias Harris (FD $8400, DK $8000)
This game should be played at a high pace which benefits Harris a good amount. He’s certainly not cheap, but his high floor is appealing on a small slate. Vegas thinks there will be 224 points scored in this game, Harris will have a good chunk of them.
Danilo Gallinari (FD $7600, DK $6400)
He’s a bit pricey on FD but this is a good spot for him. Similarly to Harris, Galo will be a big part of the offense. He’s too cheap on DK.
Luka Doncic (FD $7400, DK $7300)
He’s a bit overpriced based off his production but Doncic’s ability to produce across the board gives him a high floor. Couple that with an elite matchup versus the Clippers and Doncic becomes super appealing.
DeAndre Jordan (FD $7700, DK $6700)
I’m buying into the revenge game narrative here as Jordan is the type of player who is capable of producing monster games with a little motivation. Take away the revenge narrative and this is an elite matchup for Jordan versus a Clippers team that has given up massive games to centers all year.
ON THE RADAR
Montrezl Harrell (FD $8800, DK $7700)
Our good friend Montrezl Harrell is closer to a fade at his FD price and more of a top target at his DK price. This seems like a good compromise.
I’m fine with targeting any of Shai, Patrick Beverley, Avery Bradley, or Lou Williams in this spot. All carry risk and GPP upside.
Similarly to the Clippers, Dallas has a crowded backcourt with multiple guys worth considering. Dennis Smith Jr. and Wes Matthews are my favorites of the group. J.J. Barea is a bit pricey for me but I understand the appeal.
Harrison Barnes (FD $6000, DK $6200)
Barnes is just a solid option at his price. He’s not a sexy pick because of his limited upside but this is a good spot for him.
I’m pretty OK with targeting anyone in this game as it’s by far the most appealing on a pretty gross slate.
Stefano Vaccarino is the NBA Product Manager for The Quant Edge. Formerly known as Rotodamus NBA on Twitter, Stefano provides consistently accurate NBA insights and predictions. His perception of the game and understanding of analytics allows him to identify profitable NBA situations.