NBA | Saturday, 12/11

NBA | Saturday, 12/11

I like to start by identifying which teams are in the best game environment. Identifying pace-up spots is more than just looking at who plays a faster paced team. I try to quantify pace boost by projecting the pace of each game and then comparing it to the teams’ averages. I will then go tier-by-tier (price-wise), breaking down the plays that stand out to me, and which chalk merits fading (on bigger slates, don’t expect anyone to command fade-worthy ownership unless there is big injury news). I’ll summarize by position at the end.

Games/Teams to Target
Find NBA team stats here.
Find player rates here.
All stats I mention are from the past 10 games.

Here are my Pace Projections alongside opponent defensive ratings for today’s slate:

I start by multiplying the Pace Factor of each team, then dividing by league average. Thus, a team gets a pace boost anytime they play a team that is faster than the league average. Finally, I make a small adjustment to weight the pace of the home team more, which is a nod to Vegas totals more heavily reflecting the pace of the hosts.

Brooklyn, Indiana, and Washington stand out as the best teams to target. All three will see a pace boost against a bad defensive team.

Interestingly, Boston is probably the only team to avoid, as Minnesota’s defense has improved immensely since the arrival of Robert Covington and Boston is on the second leg of a road back-to-back. RoCo’s DRPM is more than twice the DRPM for the second place SF in the NBA. His impact is incredible.

Picks!

9k+
Kevin Durant & James Harden (Fades)
Both of these studs recently saw their production and prices rise due to the absence of their star PGs. Both Chris Paul and Steph Curry are back in action, which makes both KD and Harden overpriced.

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