We have ourselves a MASSIVE Superbowl eve 12 game NBA DFS slate on our hands, let’s get right to it…
Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards (o/u 230, MIL -6.5)
Milwaukee is 1st in defensive rating, 6th in pace.
Washington is 24th in defensive rating, 9th in pace.
We start the night off in Washington as the Bucks find themselves in a pace-friendly matchup vs the Wizards, who continue to be a team we can attack because of their pace and poor defense.
Giannis Antetokounmpo will likely be one of the most under-owned stars on the slate which makes him an elite GPP target. This is an elite matchup for the Greek Freak who remains slightly overpriced on both sites. Giannis won’t be a priority for me in my lines but if playing multiple GPP lines I’d want some Giannis exposure, this is an elite matchup after all.
My favorite Buck tonight is Khris Middleton, as he remains too cheap at $6700 on FD and $6400 on DK. There are SO many great SG options tonight, so it’s tough making Middleton a priority but he has a really good chance to reach his ceiling at a down price in this spot.
While he’s produced well and is in a great spot, I’m a bit off on Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe is dealing with a sore Achilles and not particularly cheap, on a massive slate where I prefer to spend up elsewhere.
If you’re in the need for a safe lower-middle priced center, Brook Lopez is a strong target. There’s nothing sexy about Brook, but he continues to play 30+ minutes while averaging .91 FD and .89 DK points per minute. That equates to some interesting value at $5700 on FD and $5100 on DK in a plus matchup.
While this game features a 230 implied total, it’s tough for me to spend up on Wizards players vs an elite Bucks defense. There will be fantasy points scored so the Wizards carry some GPP appeal.
If this were a six-game slate, I’d have interest in Bradley Beal tonight. Because there are 12 NBA games AND SG is by far the strongest position, it’s really hard to pay up for Beal tonight against the top-rated defense in the NBA. The pace is right for Beal and NO ONE will play him, so there’s GPP appeal, but Beal is far from a priority in my lines tonight.
Similarly to Beal, Trevor Ariza and Otto Porter are fine at their prices in this spot but with 12 games, we aren’t looking for “fine.” I’d prefer to spend elsewhere. The same can be said about Tomas Satoransky.
Chicago Bulls @ Charlotte Hornets (o/u 217.5, CHA -6.5)
Chicago is 23rd in defensive rating, 21st in pace.
Charlotte is 19th in defensive rating, 20th in pace.
Not much needs to be said about this matchup, as two slow-paced bad teams square off. Zach Lavine is expected to play, which dampens some intrigue with Chicago Bulls players. Jabari Parker is OUT.
With Parker out, I have interest in one Bull and that is Bobby Portis. Portis will be locked-in to 25ish minutes off the bench in an exploitable matchup. Do I love Portis here? No, not really, because Jim Boylen continues to play Robin Lopez 20ish minutes a game at center, which adds risk to Portis’ minutes and production. I think it’s important we monitor the Bulls starting center as Charlotte doesn’t carry much size, which may be by some miracle will convince Boylen to reassert Portis into the starting lineup over Lopez.
The only Hornets player I have interest in is Marvin Williams and it’s only minimal. Williams is cheap on FD at $5000 and $4800 and what intrigues me about Marvin is the Bulls propensity for giving up open threes. The Bulls give up the sixth most 3 PM per game and happen to struggle vs face-up fours, which could lead to some appealing upside for Williams at his price.
Kemba Walker is always capable but on a 12 game slate and with his recent production I’d much rather spend elsewhere.
Brooklyn Nets @ Orlando Magic (o/u 217.5, ORL -1)
Brooklyn is 17th in defensive rating, 14th in pace.
Orlando is 16th in defensive rating, 26th in pace.
This is the third meeting between these two teams over the last month and while it’s not exactly an interesting implied total there are some high priced studs to consider. It’s a tricky spot to target Nets players as Orlando plays at such a slow pace with lots of low post usage that it limits some defensive upside.
Fresh off of his first All-Star birth, D’Angelo Russell remains an elite GPP target. In two games vs the Magic this year, Russell is averaging 53.15 FD and 56.38 DK points, that is elite production at his $8900 FD and $8200 DK price tags. The issue with Russell and what makes him a GPP only target for me is that Kenny Atkinson isn’t afraid to bench him and SG is loaded at his price-point tonight.
With Dinwiddie out, Shabazz Napier continues to be a strong middle priced PG to consider. Napier averages 1.07 FD and DK points per minute with Dinwiddie OFF the court. Where Napier hits his ceiling is his 10-15 minutes with DLo on the bench as he averages 1.27 FD and DK points per minute and carries a 30.68 usage rating with both Dinwiddie and DLo OFF the court.
The Nets have picked up their pace of late, ranking second in the NBA in pace over the last 10 games.
A DFS rule of thumb when the Nets are on the slate: ATTACK them at center. Nikola Vucevic has made a career of crushing the Nets. Vucevic is averaging 53.85 FD and 54.12 DK points in two games vs the Nets this year. He’s an elite target even at his elevated price tag.
I’m not really interested in any other Magic players as they all sort of eat into each other’s production. Aaron Gordon is a usable GPP target, but I don’t particularly want to spend up on him on a massive slate.
Terrance Ross continues to carry appealing upside on DK priced at $5300. Ross has been on fire of late and Steve Clifford has shown more and more confidence in Ross with increased minutes over his last 10 games.
Dallas Mavericks @ Cleveland Cavaliers (o/u 210, DAL -9)
Dallas is 13th in defensive rating, 18th in pace.
Cleveland is 30thth in defensive rating, 29th in pace.
The Mavericks head to Cleveland once again short-handed with their newly acquired players unable to play. While the Cavs slow pace is less than ideal, we can still look to attack Cleveland, as they are by far the worst defensive team in the NBA. This is a great spot to get some value.
Because of the lack of depth and the matchup, Luka Doncic is an elite target tonight. With Dennis Smith Jr, DeAndre Jordan, and Wes Matthews OFF the court, Doncic averages 45.12 FD and 46.58 DK points per 36 minutes. Couple that with the slight bump he gets because of Cleveland’s poor defense and Doncic is priced for upside at $9000 on FD and $8300 on DK. SG is loaded tonight with a plethora of strong pricey options which could potentially keep Doncic a bit lower owned then he should be.
Harrison Barnes remains a bit too cheap priced at $5500 on FD and $5800 on DK considering the circumstances. Barnes is far and away the second option on offense after Luka and see’s a 5.17% usage bump while averaging .94 FD and 1 DK point per minute with Smith, Jordan, and Matthews OFF the court. That equates to 33.74 FD and 36.06 DK points per 36 minutes, which is elite value at his prices not even considering the elite nature of the matchup.
Now to the Dallas values, and there are a lot of them. I’m going to rank the Dallas values in tiers.
TIER 1: Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber, Dorian Finney-Smith
Powell is my favorite simply because he’s the most productive and will see anywhere from 22-28 minutes tonight. Powell averages 1.06 FD and 1.04 DK points per minute with Smith, Jordan, and Matthews OFF the court. We can exploit his $3700 FD and $4400 DK price tags. He’s way too cheap on FD. Kleber and Finney-Smith are likely locked into the most minutes and while both underwhelmed a touch last game they remain strong values because of their minutes.
TIER 2: Jalen Brunson, Salah Mejri, Devin Harris
These three aren’t quite elite values with Brunson being the safest and I’d argue the most usable. Brunson will have to play 27+ minutes, he, however, sees a drop in his already mediocre production with Doncic returning. Still, Brunson is dirt cheap on FD at $3600 and a bit riskier on DK at $4200. Mejri and Harris are GPP punts, especially Mejri. Mejri can rack up a bunch of blocks in a short amount of time so at 20 minutes, he has a real chance to 7x his value. He and Harris are real risks.
TIER 3: Ryan Broekhoff, Dirk Nowitzki
I call this the “I’m playing 150 lineups, so I don’t mind taking a massive risk in a few of them,” tier. Broekhoff played 26 minutes last game and it wouldn’t shock me to see him around that number again. He’s been productive in garbage time, and he wasn’t productive with real minutes last game. I mentioned Dirk mostly out of respect. If I’m giving Broekhoff a little love, I can with Dirk too.
While targeting Cavs is plausible in this spot, with so many games tonight I don’t have a ton of interest in Cavs players and dealing with Larry Drew’s rotation.
There are three Cavs players I would consider in GPPs. Larry Nance Jr, Alec Burks, and Jordan Clarkson. Nance is my favorite to take a shot on because he’s a $7000+ type player priced down because he’s been injured. He’s going to get a big minutes bump and have a monster outing at some point while priced down. Tonight is his fourth game back and he played 24 minutes last game, so it wouldn’t shock me if it’s tonight. Burks and Clarkson are similar players who play relatively similar minutes. Clarkson is the more productive player from a per-minute standpoint while Burks plays more minutes. I’d say Burks is a touch safer, but I slightly prefer Clarkson’s upside. Both are big risks.
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat (o/u 205.4, MIA -3)
Indiana is 4th in defensive rating, 25th in pace.
Miami is 6th in defensive rating, 24th in pace.
With so many appealing games featured on the slate, this is not one of them. Feel free to completely avoid this matchup, as two of the top defenses and slowest paced teams face off.
If you’re desperate for exposure in this matchup my favorite target is Darren Collison, Collison remains appealingly priced based off of his production since Dipo went down and the one area of weakness for the stout Miami defense is against primary ball-handlers.
Stay away from Miami unless there are some late scratches.
New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs (o/u 233, SA -10)
New Orleans is 25th in defensive rating, 5th in pace.
San Antonio is 22nd in defensive rating, 22nd in pace.
Now we’re getting to the meat of this monster slate as the depleted Pelicans find themselves in an interesting spot vs the Spurs. It’s a pace-down game for the Pels but we can attack Spurs poor defense. Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle, E’twuan Moore, and Elfrid Payton remain OUT.
We start with the rock-solid Jrue Holiday, who averages 49.35 FD and 49.46 DK points per 36 minutes and has a 28.37 usage rating with AD, Miro, and Randle OFF the court. Holiday will likely play more than 36 minutes and we can also give him a slight bump because of the matchup. TQE projects Holiday at 50.64 FD and 50.79 DK points tonight and at $9600 on FD and $9100 on DK, Holiday is one of many elite targets at SG tonight.
Jahlil Okafor will look to continue his strong run of production tonight vs a Spurs team that has played well against opposing centers. The appeal for Okafor is his elite minutes while averaging 1.12 FD and 1.11 DK points per minute with AD, Miro, and Randle OFF the court. $7500 on FD and $7000 on DK isn’t cheap, but Okafor remains a rock-solid target at center.
We can go right back to the well and target Darius Miller as a strong value SF. Miller has produced well, going for 30+ fantasy points in three of his last four games. That equates to strong value at $5000 on FD and $4400 on DK. Miller is an elite target on DK because of the 3PT bonus.
Both Tim Frazier and Frank Jackson are usable values at PG. They have each produced well and will likely continue to split the minutes at PG. Frazier has produced better and is rightly more expensive. Both are strong values.
The guy who has come out of nowhere and that has impressed the most is Kenrich Williams, who is still too cheap on both sites at $4600 on FD and $4100 on DK. Williams is super active on the court, which leads to added rebounds, he can also shoot. I’d expect Williams to be one of the more popular targets tonight, as he’s gone for 30+ fantasy points in the two games he’s been featured in the Pelicans rotation. He’s an elite value at PF on FD. Unfortunately on DK, he’s listed as an SG/SF, making him trickier to fit in.
The Pelicans are one of the premier teams to attack in DFS because of their fast pace and poor defense, this is an elite spot for the Spurs.
We’ve already gone through Doncic and Jrue Holiday as elite pricy SGs to target tonight and DeMar DeRozan joins that list which will continue to grow. DeRozan is cheap and is in an elite spot. Attacking the Pelicans pace with primary ball-handlers is a sound strategy and we get that here with DeRozan at a down price.
I’m off on LaMarcus Aldridge on FD, as he’s a bit too pricey for me considering the size of the slate but on DK priced at $8100, Aldridge is more in play. Again, this is a great spot to target Spurs players and Aldridge is one of the most productive Spurs going for 43+ fantasy points in five of his last seven games.
I don’t love either but both Derrick White and Rudy Gay are safe middle priced options. Neither carries the elite upside we are looking for on this massive of a slate, but both are safe targets.
While I like the matchup there are better value PGs on the slate, I’m off on Patty Mills and Bryn Forbes.
A super risky GPP dart worth considering is Pau Gasol, who hasn’t played much but is priced at the minimum on both sites. San Antonio will need some size vs Okafor.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors (o/u 236, GS -9.5)
Los Angeles is 8th in defensive rating, 4th in pace.
Golden State is 14th in defensive rating, 10th in pace.
This is clearly the marquee matchup of the night, as LeBron and the Lakers head to Golden State to face the absolutely loaded Warriors. Only one team intro is needed, we know the deal here. This matchup is loaded with pace and stars, there will be lots of fantasy goodness to go around. The big issue with this game from a DFS standpoint is everyone is so damn expensive making it truly difficult to stack this game.
LeBron James didn’t look too rusty in his return vs the Clippers and played 40(!) minutes right out of the gate. While typically I LOVE to target LeBron in primetime games vs elite teams, especially on the road, I’m not sure if this is the spot where I want to spend that much of my cap. He’s a fade-able borderline elite target. I have absolutely zero qualms with anyone targeting him and in GPPs I will have my shares.
The guy who I’m really interested in is Rajon Rondo, who has actually produced better with LeBron ON the court and this is the exact game environment where Rondo will flirt with a triple-double. A lot of people will look at his price and say “with LeBron back? NO WAY!” I won’t be one of those people. Rondo will play huge minutes and I expect strong production.
With LeBron back, it’s tough for me to spend up on Brandon Ingram or Kyle Kuzma. Neither are worth the price as they see big production and usage drops with LeBron ON the court.
One of Ivica Zubac or JaVale McGee will provide GPP upside, I’m just not sure which one it will be. I slightly prefer McGee.
My favorite target in this game is Steph Curry. I love targeting Steph when the Warriors are at home vs a good team, we get that tonight. Curry loves to put on a show in primetime and the expected pace of this game will lead to more peripheral stats for Curry. We always have to worry about blowout risk when the Warriors play at home, no matter who the opponent is, but I’m confident the Lakers will be able to hang around. Curry is cheap at $9500 on FD and $9600 on DK.
Because Curry is my favorite Warrior to target doesn’t mean this isn’t an elite spot for Kevin Durant. The Warriors make DFS brutal for us, as we can argue at all five of their starters are in an elite matchup, but it’s not feasible to target all five. If you’re off on Curry and on Durant, target Durant with confidence.
These primetime games vs elite opponents are my favorite spots to target Draymond Green, who is an elite target on both sites but is especially appealing at his $6400 DK price tag. Green’s production has taken a hit since Boogie returned, but this sort of game environment makes up for it in my eyes.
Klay Thompson is expected to play and as always Klay is strictly a GPP target. I don’t have a ton of interest in him.
An interesting Warriors value to consider is Andre Iguodala. This is the sort of game where Iggy sees a slight minutes bump, which leads to a production bump. Iggy has also been productive with his minutes of late.
I’m also off on Boogie simply because I’d rather target Ayton (assuming he’s not on a minutes limit) at a similar price point vs the Hawks. Boogie is ultra-productive in his 25ish minutes but because his minutes are capped, his ceiling is also capped. I don’t like that on a massive slate like tonight.
Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns (o/u 235, PHO -2)
Atlanta is 26th in defensive rating, 1st in pace.
Phoenix is 29th in defensive rating, 12th in pace.
This is our classic bad NBA game but GLORIOUS NBA DFS game, as the Hawks and their blistering pace head to Phoenix to face the Suns and their putrid defense. Both teams play relatively fast with poor defense. With a ton of marquee games on the slate, this matchup could potentially go under-owned especially in cheaper entry GPPs.
He’s priced up, but Trae Young has been absolutely balling of late, going for 40+ fantasy points in three of his last four games. It’s hard for me to spend $7400 on FD and $7500 on DK but Young carries elite GPP 50+ point upside in this matchup. If I’m playing multiple GPP lines I want Trae Young exposure.
Targeting the rest of the Hawks is frustrating because there is SO MUCH upside in this matchup except their rotation is a nightmare with Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince back. Typically, John Collins would be a lock button for me in this matchup as Collins usually smashes bad young teams. His recent minutes drop limits his upside and that minutes drop is likely to stay as it coincides with Bazemore’s return.
I’d rank the rest of the Hawks, after Trae Young, in GPP order: Collins, Dedmon, Huerter, Bembry, Prince, Len, Bazemore.
Unlike the Hawks, the Suns have a fairly stable rotation and this is an absolutely amazing matchup for them. To any new readers, the Hawks are potentially the greatest team to attack in the history of DFS, as they are first in pace, 26th in defensive rating, 30th in turnover percentage, 21st in rebounding percentage, and 20th in true shooting percentage. That all equals elite DFS production. DeAndre Ayton is expected to return tonight.
Sign me up for Devin Booker in this spot. Booker has frustrated everyone over the last two weeks and finally exploded last game vs the Spurs. I think he builds on last games strong performance in an ultra-elite spot vs ATL. Booker also sees a slight production increase with Ayton ON the floor, he’s one of my favorites at the absolutely loaded SG position.
DeAndre Ayton is expected to return tonight and he couldn’t have asked for a spot matchup to return to. Ayton is a bit cheap at $7000 on FD and $6800 on DK. As long as no minutes limit is established Ayton is an elite target.
Ayton’s return complicates things for Josh Jackson, Kelly Oubre, and Mikal Bridges a little. With TJ Warren still out minutes will be there for all three but I think Jackson takes the biggest minutes hit, which will lead to less production. Mikal Bridges has produced really well of late, he’s a strong value SF. Oubre is really interesting as he’s capable of racking up steals vs the most turnover prone team in the NBA. Oubre is a borderline elite target priced at $6200 on FD and $5900 on DK.
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves (o/u 221, DEN -1)
Denver is 10th in defensive rating, 27th in pace.
Minnesota is 18th in defensive rating, 11th in pace.
This is an appealing pace-up spot for the Nuggets who are on the second of a back to back. The T-Wolves continue to struggle defensively, we can attack them. Jamal Murray and Gary Harris are both OUT.
Nikola Jokic has seen a slight production improvement on the second game of a back to back averaging 1.1 more FD points and 1.64 more DK points while averaging 1.41 more minutes. With Murray and Harris OFF the court, Jokic also sees a slight production and a minimal 1.6% usage bump. While I slightly prefer Embiid, Jokic is an elite target tonight.
With Harris and Murray OFF the court, Will Barton and Malik Beasley are the biggest beneficiaries. Barton averages .21 more FD and .19 more DK points per minute while seeing a 8.03% usage bump. Beasley averages .12 more FD and .15 more DK points per minute while seeing a 8.94% usage bump. Barton has struggled of late, but this is an elite GPP spot for him as no one will play him and the T-Wolves struggle vs wings. Beasley has been ON FIRE of late, he’s a strong value high upside middle priced SG. The issue with Beasley is his positional strength on FD, on DK he has SF eligibility.
Even with his price up, Monte Morris remains in play with Jamal Murray out. His production has been great his last two outings and while I wouldn’t call him an elite target at his elevated price he’s a strong play. Below are the Nuggets players per minute differentials with Murray and Harris OFF the court over the last 30 days.
And here are those differentials except only on the second game of a back to back.
The Nuggets are no longer the elite defensive team they were earlier in the year, we can target Minnesota players with confidence. Jeff Teague remains OUT, Derrick Rose is questionable.
If Derrick Rose can’t go we can fire up Jerryd Bayless again as an elite sub $6k PG worth considering. I’m only interested in Bayless if Rose is out because while I expect the minutes to be there for Bayless regardless of Rose’s status they will likely eat into each other’s production and Bayless is no longer THAT cheap.
Similarly to Bayless, I’m only interested in Andrew Wiggins if Rose remains out. Wiggins sees a 6.79% usage bump with Teague, Rose, and Jones OFF the court while averaging 36.13 FD and 37.18 DK points per 36 minutes. At $6800 on FD and $6300 on DK, that’s good value for Wiggins without even considering the strong matchup.
I’m off on Karl-Anthony Towns tonight, especially if Rose plays. Towns will be super low owned, so there’s GPP appeal but overall I’d rather spend less or spend a bit more on Embiid or Jokic.
Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz (o/u 224, HOU -6.5)
Houston is 27th in defensive rating, 28th in pace.
Utah is 5th in defensive rating, 15th in pace.
This is a brutal spot for the Rockets facing an elite Jazz defense while playing in Utah. The Jazz are on the second day of a back to back and as a team, they haven’t seen any regression in their defensive metrics on back to backs. Chris Paul is OUT for this game.
No Chris Paul means it’s James Harden day, which complicates everything. Harden is priced at $13500 on FD and $12500 on DK in a brutal matchup in a position that’s flush with options and yet, he’s still an elite play. If there’s a slate where I can understand fading Harden, it’s tonight because of the reasons listed above. Still, Harden averages 1.79 FD and 1.86 DK points per minute with an insane 45.79 usage rate with Chris Paul OFF the court over the last 30 days.
Chris Paul’s absence also opens things up for Eric Gordon, who sees a 6.48% usage bump. Gordon will likely play 10-12 minutes without Harden and with Paul and Harden both OFF the court, Gordon averages 1.59 FD and 1.68 DK points per minute with a 39.89 usage rating. That is elite production and priced at $5200 on FD and $5000 on DK, Gordon is an elite lower middle priced SG to consider even in a brutal matchup.
The Manimal, Kenneth Faried, continues to be one of the top options at PF since joining the Rockets. The production has always been there for Faried because of his effort, the minutes are finally there for him. I prefer him at his $6900 DK price tag as opposed to his $8000 FD price, but he’s usable on both sites. Faried will likely be around the rim all game matched up vs Gobert.
While Austin Rivers and some of the other Rockets value’s are usable, I much rather prefer to target the Mavs or Pelicans value.
While this is a slight pace-down game for the Jazz the Rockets are an awful defensive team as showcased last night vs the Nuggets. Weirdly enough the Rockets improve defensively on back to back’s, but I believe that is more a product of their slower pace than their actual defense.
Rudy Gobert‘s ALL-STAR snub revenge game last night was halted by early foul trouble, but he still managed to produce 45+ fantasy points in 26 minutes. Gobert has a noticeable size advantage over Kenneth Faried, we can go right back to the well with Gobert tonight. He’s a borderline elite target, but we just have to make sure there are no cups he can swing at throughout the game.
Another pricey SG worth considering tonight is Donovan Mitchell, who typically shows up vs elite competition, especially when matched up vs elite players such as Harden tonight. No one will play Mitchell making him an elite GPP target vs a terrible defensive team.
It was expected Ricky Rubio would produce vs Atlanta last night and he did. Rubio has seemingly taken the Mike Conley trade rumors and has improved his play. This is also a really good spot to target Rubio in GPPs, as he will be low owned and is capable of producing. Strangely enough, Rubio averages two more minutes on back to back compared to normal rest.
I don’t have a ton of interest in the other Jazz players. Joe Ingles is a safe middle priced SF, but he doesn’t carry the sort of upside I want on a large slate and I’d rather just target Harrison Barnes at his price point.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings (o/u 234.5, PHI 3.5)
Philadelphia is 11th in defensive rating, 7th in pace.
Sacramento is 21st in defensive rating, 2nd in pace.
The last game of the night is one of the most intriguing matchups, as the Sixers head to Sacramento in a paced-fueled matchup vs the Kings. This is an elite spot to target Sixers players, JJ Redick and Wilson Chandler are both OUT.
With JJ Redick and Wilson Chandler OFF the floor, Joel Embiid sees the slightest .02 per minute production bump while also carrying a minimal usage drop of 2.52%. Basically, Embiid isn’t really affected by the injuries, which is perfectly fine when you consider the Kings matchup. Embiid is pricey at $11600 on FD and $10700 on DK but this is an elite matchup vs a Kings team that gives up monster games to opposing centers. On a large slate that features Harden without CP3, it’s not easy to fit Embiid in but if you’re fading Harden, Embiid is someone I’d like to squeeze in. He’s an elite target.
Jimmy Butler sees a 8.12% usage bump while average .2 more FD and .21 more DK points per minute with Redick and Chandler OFF the court. That puts Butler, who will likely be low owned on FD at $8600 with the abundance of targets available, in play. On DK, Butler is at an elite price of $7400.
The other Sixers star worth considering is Ben Simmons. Typically, I feel a bit silly just saying all three are elite targets but in this spot, it’s hard not to like them. Simmons is my least favorite of the three, as I prefer targeting Curry at a similar price range to get exposure in the Warriors-Lakers game while trying to get my Sixers exposure with either Embiid or Butler. Still, Simmons is a strong target.
With Philly depleted on the wings that means we get Corey Brewer minutes in an ultra pace-up game environment, which is something I am way too excited about. Brewer offers elite value at $3800 on FD and $3400 on DK. Brewer is an elite value worth considering because of the matchup and minutes.
While the Sixers are a fairly good defensive team, the expected pace of this game outweighs Philly’s defense, we can target Kings players with confidence. The issue with targeting Kings players is their rotation has gotten a bit more complicated recently. It doesn’t feel right to load up on a Sixers star and not have some sort of Kings in your line to counter but on such a big slate I’m fine with it.
My favorite King to target is Buddy Hield. While Hield will get Jimmy Butler defense a lot the back and forth pace of this game will lead to a ton of cross matchups which means Hield will have plenty of opportunities to fire away. The issue with Hield is he’s at SG and with so many amazing options at SG, it’s tough to make him the guy you target.
I’m only interested in De’Aaron Fox if playing multiple GPP lines. It appeared he was less banged up but his minutes and production have been a bit inconsistent and on a big slate it’s tough to spend up on him. This is the ideal game environment for him though.
I’m off on the Kings young bigs as Joel Embiid LOVES to get young bigs into foul trouble. None are worth the risk for me.
Teams to Attack
Wizards, Nets, Cavs, Pelicans, Spurs, Lakers/Warriors matchup, T-Wolves, Rockets, Hawks, Suns, Kings
I don’t think any game carries concerning blowout potential
PG: Steph Curry, Trae Young (GPP), Rajon Rondo, Tim Frazier, Frank Jackson
SG: James Harden, Jrue Holiday, Luka Doncic, D’Angelo Russell (GPP), Devin Booker, Jimmy Butler (DK), DeMar DeRozan, Khris Middleton, Eric Gordon, Monte Morris…SO MANY OPTIONS
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP), Kevin Durant, Will Barton (GPP), Harrison Barnes, Darius Miller, Corey Brewer
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge (DK), Kenneth Faried, Draymond Green, Larry Nance (GPP), Kenrich Williams, Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber
C: Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic, Rudy Gobert, Jahlil Okafor, DeAndre Ayton (GPP), Brook Lopez (DK)
Good luck and enjoy the Super Bowl!
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Stefano Vaccarino is the NBA Product Manager for The Quant Edge. Formerly known as Rotodamus NBA on Twitter, Stefano provides consistently accurate NBA insights and predictions. His perception of the game and understanding of analytics allows him to identify profitable NBA situations.