Here are the Warriors per minute differentials with Kevin Durant OFF the court during the playoffs:
It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green all see a noticeable usage bump with Curry seeing the strongest fantasy point per minute bump. The Warriors starting lineup is CRUCIAL for tonight’s Showdown slate as I expect to see either Andrew Bogut or Alfonzo McKinnie join the starting group. If it’s Bogut, Bogut becomes one of the top values on the slate. McKinnie will see extended run regardless if he is listed as a starter or not. Jonas Jerebko is another potential starting candidate.
How is the Warriors defense affected in games Kevin Durant does not play?
It is an incredibly small sample size but the Warriors have seemed to improve defensively in games without Durant. However, take this metric with a grain of salt as the sample size is small; their opponents were the Magic, Thunder, and Rockets. Unfortunately that missed game against the Rockets doesn’t do us much good as DeMarcus Cousins was active and taken up a ton of usage.
James Harden ($17000)
It’s tough not to just plug and play Harden as MVP in this game. He has the highest floor and highest ceiling out of all of the Warriors studs. Because FD doesn’t increase the price based off of what slot you play Harden in there really isn’t a great reason to not go Harden here. If Harden isn’t your MVP make sure he’s your Star.
Steph Curry ($14500)
The only Harden pivot I’d make is with Steph Curry.
Steph Curry ($14500)
Realistically, this is the spot where I’d want to target Curry who has seen a .08 FD and .09 DK fantasy point per minute increase and 8.66% usage bump in 91 minutes with KD OFF the court during the playoffs. If the Warriors are going to win this series they will need Steph to show up.
Draymond Green ($14500)
We’re going to have to pick one of Curry or Draymond on FD tonight and while I’m leaning Curry if you’re fading him make sure to play Draymond. Green will have more of a role on the glass and sees a 7.79% usage bump with KD OFF the court during the playoffs.
Klay Thompson ($12500)
No KD means I want to stack Splash Bro’s and Klay is actually priced ok for FD standards. Klay’s numbers in the playoffs have not improved with KD OFF the court HOWEVER, during the regular season with a MUCH larger sample size Klay was the biggest Warrior’s beneficiary seeing a .21 FD and .23 DK fantasy point per minute bump with a 10.57% usage bump with KD OFF the court. The reason for Klay ranked below Steph and Draymond is because he’s slightly scoring dependent. I think Klay will score a ton, but his ceiling is lower because of the peripherals.
Clint Capela ($11000)
Clint is a BIG GPP risk but I’d love him as a low owned target IF and only IF Andrew Bogut starts. Capela’s minutes have been down the last two games because the Warriors small-ball “Death” lineup forces Capela into bad defensive mismatches. If Bogut starts that means there is a role for Capela and the potential to see increased minutes.
Andre Iguodala ($9500)
Iggy is cheap enough to fit if going star heavy. He’ll play 33+ minutes and sees a 3.15% usage bump with KD OFF the court. He’s just a rock solid target and is $2k cheaper than PJ Tucker.
PJ Tucker ($11500)
It’s not realistic to fit Tucker here if spending up on the multiplier positions but if going with a balanced approach Tucker is a strong target who’s consistently produced 30+ FD points this series.
Kevon Looney ($7500)
Looney is the first of the Warriors values I want to get to. He won’t start but will likely see 20-25 minutes and was incredibly productive when KD got hurt last game. Looney’s minutes are the safest of all of the cheap Warriors who benefit with KD out.
Andrew Bogut ($6000)
Andrew Bogut provides elite cap relief if Steve Kerr decides to put him back in the starting lineup. Even 18 minutes of Bogut is enough for us to hit value as he allows us to stack studs. If Bogut starts, he’s a lock for me.
Alfonzo McKinnie ($6000)
Another Warriors value priced at the minimum who will see slightly more minutes. I don’t love McKinnie as he’ll stand in the corner a lot but tough to look past him if the Warriors go small and start him.
Shaun Livingston ($6000)
Livingston is the name that might end up being overlooked as over the course of the year he did not see much of a minutes bump when KD didn’t play. HOWEVER, this is the playoffs and a crucial Game 6, Steve Kerr trusts Livingston and we’ve seen Kerr stick with Livingston for long stretches in the past during the playoffs. Livingston tends to spell in the Warriors “Death” lineup.
James Harden ($17700)
Because of KD’s injury there is enough value on DK to not overly sweat spending this much on Harden. He’s far and away the top overall player on the slate and there really isn’t much of a reason to not play him as your captain. If Harden isn’t your captain, well first off good luck, but more importantly make sure he is in your lineup somewhere.
Steph Curry ($15600)
Similar to FD, the only player I target at Captain not named James Harden is Steph Curry. Curry’s 8.66% usage bump during the playoffs without KD coupled with his 11.25% True Shooting increase is elite. Curry essentially is shooting more and at a more efficient clip when Durant has been off the floor.
Steph Curry ($10400)
My Showdown lineups start with Harden at Captain and Curry as my first UTIL. I think Curry will be the second highest scorer on the slate. DK’s 3PT bonus nudges Curry over Draymond for me.
Klay Thompson ($8400)
If you skipped over the FD portion of this article, here is what I said about Klay:
“No KD means I want to stack Splash Bro’s and Klay is actually priced ok for FD standards. Klay’s numbers in the playoffs have not improved with KD OFF the court HOWEVER, during the regular season with a MUCH larger sample size Klay was the biggest Warrior’s beneficiary seeing a .21 FD and .23 DK fantasy point per minute bump with a 10.57% usage bump with KD OFF the court. The reason for Klay ranked below Steph and Draymond is because he’s slightly scoring dependent. I think Klay will score a ton, but his ceiling is lower because of the peripherals.”
Klay is priced well for DK Showdown in my eyes, I want both Splash Bro’s in my line.
PJ Tucker ($7200)
PJ Tucker is a safe bet for 28+ DK points and has been over 30+ DK points his last four games. He’s a rock solid target.
Clint Capela ($6200)
Clint Capela is CHEAP for Showdown purposes but is only in play if Andrew Bogut starts. I’d love Capela at this price as his minutes will likely shoot back up as he has someone to matchup and hang around the rim with. I don’t expect him to be too high owned.
Andre Iguodala ($5800)
I’d consider playing Iggy at this price in Classic so in Showdown it’s tough to get away from him. The minutes and metric bumps are there for him with KD out.
Kevon Looney ($3800)
Looney has the safest minutes of the cheap Warriors and I’d expect him to be highly owned.
Shaun Livingston ($3400)
Livingston is the Looney GPP pivot if looking for someone in this price range. There’s a chance Livingston sees 18-22 minutes with no KD as his replacement in the Warriors “Death” lineup. We’ve seen Livingston be featured in that lineup during the playoffs over the years.
Andrew Bogut ($1200)
If Bogut starts he’s a lock for me at this price and basically a free square as he’d be locked into around 15 minutes as a 1.04 DK fantasy point per minute producer this postseason. He provides elite cap relief with safe upside.
Alfonzo McKinnie ($2000)
If McKinnie starts and not Bogut, we can certainly consider him at this price range. McKinnie would provide good cap relief with some upside.
Stefano Vaccarino is the NBA Product Manager for The Quant Edge. Formerly known as Rotodamus NBA on Twitter, Stefano provides consistently accurate NBA insights and predictions. His perception of the game and understanding of analytics allows him to identify profitable NBA situations.