With my move over we’re back to our normal schedule. Over the last week or so, I have been posting my picks in our chat and on twitter so you could all follow along with my progress. We just stayed the course over the last five days and didn’t do much to improve or hurt our current percentage. Let’s get right to the slate as I break down some of my favorite plays tonight.
The Player Props are taken from FanDuel and DraftKings. If you have any questions about the changing lines, please shoot me over some questions at @xavierjwarner on Twitter and I’ll be glad to help.
Pick History – 154 for 301 (51%)
Orlando Magic vs Philadelphia 76ers
Nikola Vucevic O 22.5 PTS -112
Nikola Vucevic O 39.5 PTS+REB+AST -110
Vucevic is going up against a 76ers team without their top two options at center in Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic. Vucevic is going to have a field day against the 76ers big men and will almost assuredly be a big target for anticipated value. In the previous two meetings vs Philadelphia, Vucevic finished with lines of 27 PTS/13 REB/12 AST across 38 minutes and 30 PTS/8 REB/4 AST across 39 minutes. The previous domination is there and I think that continues in an elite matchup tonight against a depleted 76ers front-court.
Jonathan Isaac O 10.5 PTS -124
Isaac has been over 11 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games averaging 25 minutes per game in that span. Isaac has taken at least eight shots in nine of those games and that bodes well for us as he is boasting a 50% shooting percentage from the field vs a weakened Sixers defense.
Ben Simmons O 18.5 PTS -124
No Embiid, No Problem. Simmons, since Embiid has been out nursing ANOTHER injury, has been nothing short of effective in his game. These are the highlights from his past five games without Embiid:
- Game 1 vs Heat -> 21 Point Game on 9 of 19 shooting
- Game 2 vs Trailblazers -> 29 Point Triple Double
- Game 3 vs Pelicans -> Double Double (14 PTS/12 REB)
- Game 4 vs Thunder -> Triple Double (11 PTS/13 REB/11 AST)
- Game 5 vs Warriors -> 25 Point Triple Double (w/ 15 REB/11 AST)
Orlando is a tough matchup but I expect similar Simmons production. Simmons is going to have to be ultra-efficient against the Magic and their 6th rank scoring defense in the NBA (106.1 OPPG, According to TeamRankings.com). Simmons’ shot attempts are up and I believe the Sixers will control the tempo with their 7th ranked pace which should lead to him covering his 18.5 point threshold.
Chicago Bulls vs Indiana Pacers
Bojan Bogdanovic O 20.5 PTS -112
Bojan Bogdanovic O 24.5 PTS+REB -120
Bojan has been someone I have been high on this season and even more so after Oladipo went down. Bojan has consistently hit on his props for me throughout my picks this season and this matchup against a Bulls Defense that is ranked 20th in scoring defense (112.6 OPPG) plays into his hands. Bojan continues to produce for the Pacers when they need it most with four straight 21+ point outings. The consistency is undeniable and if he continues to knock down open jump shots vs a team that gives up the 6th most opposing threes made per game, these two props should be trivial.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Karl Anthony Towns O 25.5 PTS -122
Karl Anthony Towns O 43.5 PTS+REB+AST -110
Karl Anthony Towns O 1.5 Threes -190
It’s Towns night for me in this one. The Thunder haven’t looked the same since PG13 has left the starting lineup. There are reports that he could return tonight to help the Thunder get back on track but I don’t think that matters to me here. Towns on the other hand, has been absolutely menacing since the start of the back half of the season.
- 28 PTS/10 REB/7 AST
- 42 PTS/17 REB/4 AST
- 37 PTS/18 REB/3 AST
- 34 PTS/21 REB/5 AST
I’m going for the trifecta tonight with Towns, as I believe he is playing some of his best basketball and he should continue to produce against a fast paced team.
Houston Rockets vs Toronto Raptors
Kyle Lowry O 23.5 PTS+AST -112
Both teams are going to have to score points in this one. Lowry will be able to rack up his usual numbers in the assist category while getting some easy baskets off of long misses by Harden and Company in transition. Houston scores the most points in the NBA on 3PT shots (46.9 PPG). This will lead to more opportunities for the Raptors to get out and run allowing Lowry to distribute and score in transition. The Raptors (114.2 PPG) and Rockets (113.4) are going to have to score points to stay in this game and Lowry will be a big part of that.
Portland Trailblazers vs Memphis Grizzlies
Damian Lillard O 2.5 Threes -130
Lillard has been shooting fairly well from three-point range in his last ten games making at least three, 3PT shots in eight of his last ten games including SIX in three of those games. The Grizzlies are a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of 3PT shots allowed ranking 14th in the NBA. Lillard should be able to get some quality looks from beyond the arc here and I expect him to know them down as he typically does.