NBA Prop Plays 3/14

NBA Prop Plays 3/14

The Player Props are taken from FanDuel and DraftKings. If you have any questions about the changing lines, please shoot me over some questions at @xavierjwarner on Twitter and I’ll be glad to help.

Pick History – 209 for 403 (51.8%)

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Orlando Magic

Kevin Love O 30.5 PTS+REB -116

Kevin Love O 33.5 PTS+REB+AST -110

After taking the night off against the 76ers on Tuesday, Kevin Love is back in the lineup and looking to stay hot on the offensive end of the court. The Magic, as articulated from last nights game, really struggle against stretch 4s (ranked 25th in DvP). I really love Kevin Love in this one, which is why we are playing both of his props. When Love has been in the lineup, he has continuously dominated games and has attempted at least 11 field goals in each of the past 8 games with roughly half being three point shots. As good of a shooter that Love is (39.1% from three this season), this situation versus the Magic  only strengthens my point on Love. Love tallying double-digit rebounds in six of his last eight games shows me he is going to present a smaller range of points needed to hit our targeted threshold above.

Nikola Vucevic O 33.5 PTS+REB -120

Here are his last 10 games:

  • vs Orlando -> 20 PTS/14 REB
  • vs Memphis -> 26 PTS/10 REB
  • vs Dallas -> 20 PTS/13 REB
  • vs Philadelphia -> 12 PTS/12 REB
  • vs Cleveland -> 28 PTS/13 REB
  • vs Indiana -> 27 PTS/8 REB
  • vs Golden State -> 12 PTS/13 REB
  • vs New York -> 26 PTS/11 REB
  • vs Toronto -> 23 PTS/12 REB
  • vs Chicago -> 19 PTS/13 REB

Vucevic has been a beacon of consistency in his last 10 games hitting over target number for tonight’s prop in six of those appearances. The Cavs are ranked in the middle off the pack against Skilled Centers in DvP (13th) and I believe that Vucevic is the right guy to be on the right side of this ranking. In their previous meeting, only 11 days ago, Vucevic crushed the Cavs and easily hit our target number with a dominating performance. Expect the same tonight.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers

Russell Westbrook O 19.5 REB+AST -128

Westbrook logged a triple double last night in a wonderful matchup. I say this time and time again through these articles that Russie continues to dominate games while PG is recovering from his shoulder issues. Last night was different though, as George totaled 25 PTS on 50% shooting from the field but he wasn’t the real story in this one. Westbrook, in relation, finished with the following line; 31 PTS/12 REB/11 AST. While George looks back to his old ways, I could see RW finding the triple-double magic again as he did earlier this season as he continues to build off his performances and gear up for the playoffs. The Pacers rank 27th vs opposing superstars over their last five games according to Advanced DvP which is a good indicator for Russ to dominate the peripherals as he typically does.

Los Angeles Lakers vs Toronto Raptors

LeBron James O 25.5 PTS -106

I talked about LBJ being on a minute restriction for the remainder of the season, as indicated through the rumor mill, and I’m still not buying it. LeBron has three straight 30-point games and in nine of the last ten games he has exceeded the 26-point total targeted here. I think it’s really important to not over think this matchup. LeBron is going up against a Raptors team ranked 10th in opponents points per game (108.9) but one that slightly struggles with Superstars as they are ranked 18th in DvP against those players. LeBron is one of those players that I don’t mind buying into regardless of matchup. He is so polarizing and uber consistent that he is favored (as an individual) in most matchups. The matchup tonight with Kahwi is going to be one that forces him to work for each point he gets, but with the lack of true options on the Lakers he will be forced to score the basketball to give them a chance at winning and keeping their very TINY playoff chances alive.

Kyle Kuzma O 18.5 PTS -118

Kuzma returned after sitting the last two games to provide a much-needed scoring output for the Lakers as they inch closer to being eliminated form the playoffs. This matchup against the Raptors bods well for Kuzma as Toronto really struggles against athletic power-forwards, as evidence by their ranking of 21st in DvP this season. Kuzma does a great job a balancing the floor for LeBron by knocking down open jump shots but also flashing the “Slasher” (attacking the rim with or without the ball) skill-set in his game. Kuzma is averaging 18.9 PPG this season which is over our target and provides us with a base of consistency we look for in the prop world. With Ingram and Lonzo out, Kuzma is going to be looked at as the secondary scorer after LeBron and as I always say opportunity and volume generally trump all for me. In a matchup he exploited last time they met, I am more than confident in Kuzma reaching our target number in this one.

Utah Jazz vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Donovan Mitchell O 2.5 Threes -110

Donovan Mitchell O 26.5 PTS -108

“Spida” has hit at least three 3PT field goals in three consecutive games as the playoff race continues to heat up. The Jazz are currently 7th in the West, trailing the Spurs by just .5 games for the 6th seed. Mitchell continues to be option A on offense for Utah and carries a usage rate of over 32 in each of his three previous meetings with the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves struggle stopping teams from scoring points as they rank 22nd rank in the NBA in scoring defense (113.4 OPPG). This is a good matchup for Mitchell to his targets.

Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets

Dwight Powell O 21.5 PTS+REB – 118

On paper, this is a tough matchup for Powell but I think there is some value here with this prop. First, Luka Doncic has been fairly inconsistent shooting wise over the last several games as his knee continues to bother him; Powell has been there to pick up the slack. In his last meeting with Denver (2/22), eclipsed our target number in only 25 minutes of game action while shooting 50% from the field. I think we could see something similar here as he is going to have opportunities to score and grab rebounds as he is much more athletic than Jokic and company.

Nikola Jokic O 21.5 PTS -108

Nikola Jokic O 33.5 PTS+REB -110

Jokic will be going up against a combination of Dirk, Dwight, and Kleber tonight and that shouldn’t scare us one bit. Both props present strong value when considering Jokic’s opposition as recency bias indicates Jokic has struggled. However, in his last two games, he matched up against Karl-Anthony Towns and DeMarcus Cousins, both bad matchups.

I see this as a big bounce back game for Jokic as a 24 PTS/10 REB sees reasonable against the Mavericks trio of bigs. Jokic is 1/2 in his previous meetings vs Dallas and hit this threshold fairly easily in one. Look for Jokic to bounce-back in a very winnable but important regular season game as the Nuggets look to catch the Warriors as the one seed in the West.

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