NBA Prop Plays 3/12

NBA Prop Plays 3/12

The Player Props are taken from FanDuel and DraftKings. If you have any questions about the changing lines, please shoot me over some questions at @xavierjwarner on Twitter and I’ll be glad to help.

Pick History – 200 for 385 (52%)

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid U 26.5 PTS -104

In his first action with his team after sitting out eight games, Embiid totaled 33 PTS/12 REB against a very diligent Pacers defense ranked 2nd in scoring defense (104.0 OPPG). Embiid dominated the game from start to finish shooting 11 for 21 from the field, which is good for 52.4%. Embiid gets an elite matchup against the Cavs in this one but with a blowout likely I don’t think Embiid gets to the 27 point threshold.

In his last two matchups against Cleveland, he accumulated 24 points each game. I do believe that he has every opportunity to fill out the stat sheet, but the points will be lacking in my eyes, even without Jimmy Butler in the lineup. But with the Cavs hampered by injuries and Kevin Love out resting on game two of a B2B, I expect this game to be out of hand early.

Collin Sexton O 17.5 PTS -158

Collin Sexton O 21.5 PTS +AST -112

As mentioned earlier, the Cavs have a bunch of players out tonight and Sexton is coming off of back-to-back games of 20+ points and I love his matchup tonight. While the Sixers do an average job defensively (ranked 16th in the NBA at 111.7 OPPG) Sexton has all the opportunity in the world to produce in this one. Kevin Love out makes this choice even easier for me as the ball will most likely go to Sexton for the majority of this contest.

New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers

Bojan Bogdanovic U 20.5 PTS -122

Bojan gets a matchup against the putrid Knicks tonight and that’s probably the last thing Bojan wants to see tonight. In three games against the Knicks this season, Bojan has been held in check for the most part and it’s not because of the blowout narrative associated with the Knicks. Although all three games have been wins for the Pacers, Bojan totaled at least 26 minutes in each game with two of those games going over 30 total minutes. Bojan has been playing well as of late, but I just don’t think the Pacers are going to need him as much in this one. I’m still buying Bojan (as I usually do) but just for the opposite reasons this time.

Los Angeles Lakers vs Chicago Bulls

Lauri Markkanen O 34.5 PTS+REB+AST -116

Bounce back game for Lauri in the works! Lauri has been struggling as of late, with five straight games of under 20 points even while tallying 30 minutes or more in three of those games. Those signs look troubling for Lauri but I am a firm believer that this is a great matchup for him to bounce back. The Lakers defense has struggled immensely this year (25th in scoring defense, 114.0 OPPG), and Lauri could take full advantage of such a positive matchup.

LeBron James O 15.5 REB+AST -120

I don’t care if LBJ is apparently going to be on a “minutes restriction” for the remainder of the season because I don’t truly believe it. He has milestones he needs to reach and Kareem is at the top of that list. He is going to play close to 30 minutes in this one as he’s done in almost all games this season. Since he is one of the most dynamic overall players in recent memory (maybe even NBA History… sorry), the 16+ REB+AST number should be trivial. I could see him being more cerebral over the last stretch of the season, shooting less and being more of a facilitator for the younger guys, as he gets ready for next season.

Portland Trailblazers vs Los Angeles Clippers

Jusuf Nurkic O 14.5 PTS -122

This is going to be a great matchup and has tons of playoff implications, which for me adds a lot of complexity to the story. Both teams are going to come out to play and with potential for a gritt and grind game, I love Nurkic in this spot. The Trailblazers and the Clippers are matching up for the fourth time this season and Nurkic has performed well in two of those games. Give me the over on the 14.5 points against a team that struggles to defend centers.

 

Lou Williams O 1.5 Threes +104

Lou Williams O 23.5 PTS -118

Sweet Lou sure has been sweet for the Clippers this season and now has the most points off of the bench in NBA History. As I stated above in my section about Nurkic, this is pretty much playoff basketball. Lou will play starter minutes, as he ultimately played most of the season and will have every opportunity to get it going with the second unit as well as the first unit. Portland ranks in the middle of the pack (14th) against players like Lou Williams (primary ball handlers) and that seems troublesome to me.

Lou’s last two games have been excellent, especially last night where he absolutely went nuts against the Celtics and Kyrie Irving.

  • 3/11 vs Celtics -> 34 PTS/4 REB/5 AST/ 14-20 FG/2-6 3PT
  • 3/8 vs Thunder ->40 PTS/7 REB/5 AST/13-24 FG/4-6 3PT

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