We are back for another week of NBA Basketball and as the season draws down to its finish we have to be more focused on what type of guys we pick from night to night. It is really important to understand what each player’s situation (standings, future of the team and statistical milestones) is prior to doing research in an effort to make it easier for us to examine which props we want to buy into.
Over the weekend we finished 21 for 40, which is good for just about 53%. The NBA continues to excite us each and every night and the basketball is only going to get better from this point forward. With that being said, let’s start breaking down my favorite plays for tonight’s matchups!
The Player Props are taken from FanDuel and DraftKings. If you have any questions about the changing lines, please shoot me over some questions at @xavierjwarner on Twitter and I’ll be glad to help.
Pick History – 192 for 373 (51%)
Sacramento Kings vs Washington Wizards
Bradley Beal O 40.5 PTS+REB+AST -118
Beal, as I have said so many times recently, has taken his game to a whole new level with Wall out. He continues to explode night in and night out. In 6 of the last 9 games, Beal has totaled 41 or more PTS+REB+AST. He is facing a Kings team that ranks 26th in scoring defense (114.7 OPPG), 30th in total rebounds against (57.2 ORPG) and 13th in total assists against (24.4 OAPG). I’m buying Beal in an elite matchup where he has every opportunity to succeed.
Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Kevin Love O 18.5 PTS -112
Kevin Love O 29.5 PTS+REB -120
Kevin Love O 2.5 Threes -132
Kevin Love has been great as of late, totaling at least 30 PTS+REB in six of eight games since returning from injury. Love has a very interesting matchup against a Raptors team that ranks 10th in scoring defense (108.7 OPPG) but there’s not much of a threat of anyone on the Cavaliers being as productive of a scorer that Love is. Love is going to have the ability to reach all three of these thresholds because of opportunity alone and that’s something I’m heavily invested in during this one.
Detroit Pistons vs Brooklyn Nets
Spencer Dinwiddie O 16.5 PTS -116
Dinwiddie continues to find his role again since coming back at the beginning of this month. He has played 30 minutes in back to back games, which tells me he is healthy again and ready for more work on the offensive end. In two previous meetings with Detroit, Spencer has showed why he is a name we want to watch on tonight’s slate.
Charlotte Hornets vs Houston Rockets
Eric Gordon O 3.5 Threes +118
Eric Gordon strolls right back into my player props because of VOLUME, which could be a theme in my picks tonight, and most importantly his consistency. Gordon has attempted at least eight threes in seven of his last nine games which is a pretty high number for what we are looking for in tonight.
I am a big believer in the sentiment that “shooters, shoot” and Gordon doesn’t have the looks to slow down here. He is over the four three point field goals made threshold in back to back games including last nights 26 point outing against Minnesota team without their star player in Karl Anthony Towns.
Kemba Walker O 25.5 PTS -112
Charlotte has to score points to compete with Houston and I believe that Kemba is the type of scorer that thrive in this spot. In his previous meeting against Houston he totaled 35 points on 12 of 22 shooting.
We experienced thas matchup about two weeks ago in a game where the Hornets only lost by five. If you have been following these picks, you will know how big of a fan I am of Kemba’s game in the spotlight, tonight is no different.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz
Russell Westbrook O 45.5 PTS+REB+AST -118
Russell Westbrook is three for three in his last three games at hitting the above this threshold. Russ is a production machine and even when Paul George returned, his mindset didn’t change and he continued to excel in role despite and elite scorer reentering the lineup.
- 3/8 vs LA Clippers ->32 PTS/8 REB/7 AST
- 3/7 vs Portland -> 37 PTS/7 REB/3 AST
- 3/5 vs Minnesota -> 38 PTS/13 REB/6 AST
He continues to get teammates involved and be an active force on both sides of the ball. Utah plays elite defense as evidence of their Top 10 ranking in scoring defense (106.9 OPPG) but with Westbrook and even Paul George it is easy to identify how talent could supersede the matchup. I see that as the case here. Westbrook will look to continue stay at an elite play-making level while going against a stout defense, I’m siding with Westbrook in this one.
Donovan Mitchell O 25.5 PTS -122
Mitchell is a prime-time player in a prime-time matchup and I LOVE him in this spot. I wanted to have the opposite side of this awesome game since buying into Russell Westbrook – Donovan Mitchell provides that. Mitchell hitting over 26 points is a number that I think is very attainable in this game as he’s coming off a clash with the Grizzlies on Friday where he totaled 38 points on 12 of 24 (5/9 3PT) shooting trying to bring his team back in the game. Mitchell also carries an elite 36.38 usage rating with Rubio and Neto OFF the floor. The volume for Mitchell is there in a pace-up spot with the potential for a ton of shot attempts if Utah starts off slow again tonight.