Yesterday, we finished 15 for 22 (68%) on an 11 game NBA slate that was filled with ups, downs and classic performances from all-time greats like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Karl Anthony Towns and Dwayne Wade. Our average consistently rises over the 50% mark (now up to 53%) and with increased research and a more focused dedication on maximizing value, we are primed to keep up our hot streak to finish this week out.
The Player Props are taken from FanDuel and DraftKings. If you have any questions about the changing lines, please shoot me over some questions at @xavierjwarner on Twitter and I’ll be glad to help.
Pick History – 119 for 227 (53%)
Golden State Warriors vs Orlando Magic
Nikola Vucevic O 34.5 PTS+REB -110
Vucevic dominated the Warriors in their previous meeting in 33 minutes of action. While that matchup was against a Boogie-less Warriors squad, I don’t think much changes in this one. Vucevic has been masterful as of late and has used every ounce of his skillset to push the envelope and make defenders struggle when going against him. In his last 10 games, Nikola is shooting 53% from the field while collecting 11 or more rebounds in each of his last eight games.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Indiana Pacers
Karl Anthony Towns O 23.5 PTS -124
I started to write about Towns before the move to my new place got too much for me to bare. I started off talking about his near death experience and motivated play in the previous game. He had the same type of performance in the game last night as well. KAT recorded 37 PTS/18 REB/3 AST last night after going for 34 PTS/21 REB/5 AST 2 nights prior to that. Towns has been on a streak since his car accident and I plan to be here for it all until he proves me otherwise.
Derrick Rose O 16.5 PTS -112
Rose hasn’t been the same since an injury after his MVP season caused him to change who he is as a player. He has hit on over 17 points or more in 5 of his last 6 games and has looked like a completely different player this season. As long as Towns is playing well, Rose will be able to thrive and accumulate points in a consistent way, which will, of course, allow us to play him more from day to day.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks
Kevin Love O 10.5 REB -120
Kevin Love O 18.5 PTS -116
Kevin Love O 29.5 PTS+REB -118
Kevin Love O 2.5 Threes +110
Well, look who it is again! Looks like were on Kevin Love again tonight. I love his numbers almost as much as I loved them earlier in the week. On Monday, we hit on the following props for Kevin Love:
- Kevin Love O 9.5 REB -136
- Kevin Love O 17.5 PTS -118
- Kevin Love O 27.5 PTS+REB -118
Love is a guy I want to target tonight because of his matchup. As you can see, each category has risen from their numbers (which was to be expected), but I’m confident he can push for a chance to hit every single one of these props tonight. This game, between two of the worst teams in the NBA, will be close and leave opportunity for Love to attack the rim and get his outside shot going from the very beginning. Also no Tristan Thompson again in this one, which will provide more rebound and post-up opportunities as well.
Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets
Chris Paul O 16.5 PTS -102
Chris Paul O 28.5 PTS+REB+AST -120
CP3 has returned and looks back to his usual things that have made him so great throughout his entire career. In the last nine games, he has produced the following stat lines:
- 17 PTS/4 REB/10 AST
- 20 PTS/6 REB/8 AST
- 23 PTS/5 REB/17 AST
- 23 PTS/10 REB/9 AST
- 16 PTS/5 REB/8 AST
- 17 PTS/2 REB/11 AST
- 18 PTS/1O REB/9 AST
- 15 PTS/2 REB/11 AST
- 18 PTS/5 REB/4 AST
He has scored 17 points or more in seven of nine games with a streak of four within that span. As he gets more and more healthy, he will continue to develop his scoring ability and be a nightly threat to get over the 20 point mark night in and night out. CP3 getting at least 17 in a contest against a Miami team that ranks third in scoring defense (106.5 OPPG, According to TeamRankings.com) is going to be tough as Miami swarms the ball and forces teams to move the ball effectively to score (and Chris Paul is a ball-dominant guard). But the Rockets are ranked 11th in team points per game (113.3 PPG, according to TeamRankings.com), so something has to give, and I believe that leans towards the Houston side on this one.
James Harden U 12.5 REB+AST -118
Chris Paul is back, which means that the ball-dominant guard role has been split to satisfy both players skillset. This leads to Harden not holding onto the ball for very long, which usually converts in an open jumper from beyond the arc. In his last eight games, he has recorded 13 or more rebounds plus assists in two of his last eight games and zero over the last five games. These numbers jump out to me because they kicked off with the return of CP3 in a more permanent way. You can look for Harden to come up just short of this number just based on volume purposes.
Philadelphia 76ers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Russell Westbrook O 45.5 PTS+REB+AST -120
Westbrook has been dominating games for the last week or so and I have been on the Westbrook train many times this season. While he started off the season slow, he has been proficient as of late. Enjoy sitting back and watching Westbrook have a brilliant game against the Sixers on TNT tonight.
UPDATE: Also, Paul George is OUT.
Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic O 21.5 PTS -108
Nikola Jokic O 34.5 PTS+REB -120
We talked about Nikola the other day and both of my guys are back on the slate again. Jokic continues to cement his resume as one of the best big men in the NBA with his consistent and powerful production.
In his two previous matchups against the Nuggets, he posted these lines:
While he didn’t dominate in the scoring category in their first matchup, he was thoroughly involved in that game, finishing with 16 assists. He also only attempted 9 shots in that meeting and I don’t believe that’s going to be remotely close to the truth of tonight’s game. He continues to dominate opponents and as hot as he was against them last time, I’m buying into Jokic again tonight and am very confident in his potential output tonight.